NFL Week 18 Preview: Who will rule the North?

Let’s be honest: Sunday’s slate of season finales isn’t exactly brimming with the promise of drama, considering most of the playoff seeds are locked in as we head into the final week of the season. But the Sunday night showdown between NFC North rivals Detroit and Minnesota is certainly poised to make up for it — because as we look ahead to the post-season matchups to come, Sunday’s divisional matchup feels like an early dose of playoff football.

In a week in which most contenders are resting their starters — no, we won’t be seeing Saquon Barkley run for history when the Eagles play, for example — we really will be waiting all day for Sunday night.

The Lions and Vikings have been on a collision course for a top-seed showdown since their Week 7 meeting, which saw Detroit hand Minnesota its first loss of the season by a score of 31-29. Both clubs arrive at Week 18 with matching 14-2 records — no regular-season NFL game has ever featured two teams with as many wins (28, combined) as this one does. It’s a season tally we expected of these powerhouse Lions after they claimed the division crown last year and came within a single win of a Super Bowl appearance. Minnesota’s journey, meanwhile, has been dotted with doubts — ‘are the Vikings for real?’ was a very real, and often repeated, refrain for much of the year. 

At stake on Sunday night is not just the title of top team in the NFL’s toughest division this year, but the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC — and the bye week and home-field advantage that comes with it. It’s a rare win-and-in situation for both sides, though Detroit holds the tie-breaker should Sunday’s head-to-head end with a tie. Whoever loses gets dropped down to the fifth seed and first wild-card spot, and the honour of being the best team in NFL history not to win the division. 

The Lions have won the last five head-to-heads between these clubs, all of which have been high-scoring affairs. But are they healthy enough to beat the Vikings? With their defence decimated by injuries, Detroit will have to lean on its high-octane offence if they’re going to top the Vikings. That’s a game Minnesota can play — and win — too, considering Darnold’s got his choice of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison every snap.

Before we get to the main event — the grandest of grand finales to wrap up what’s been a pretty fun regular season — here’s what else we’re watching for as all 32 teams hit the field in the 18^th and final week of the campaign.

Bengals? Dolphins? Broncos? AFC’s seventh seed still TBD

While the stakes are high for both the Ravens and Steelers as they battle to see who will host a playoff game and who will travel as a wild-card club, the Bengals are spending their season finale fighting for their playoff lives. Four straight wins — including last Saturday’s must-win overtime thriller against fellow playoff-hunter Denver — has Joe Burrow & Co. in position to pounce… with a little luck, of course.  

The 8-8 Bengals are one of three teams vying for the AFC’s final wild-card spot, along with the 9-7 Broncos and 8-8 Dolphins. Despite losing to Cincinnati last week, the Broncos have a significant edge in this race and are the lone team of the three that can control its own future. Denver, whose playoff probability is currently at 84 per cent, can punch its ticket to the playoffs with a win or tie against the top-seeded Chiefs on Sunday — a KC squad that’s locked into the top seed and likely to rest plenty of starters. Denver can also get in with a loss, as long as both the Bengals and Dolphins lose or tie their respective matchups. 

Miami needs to beat the Jets on Sunday as well as a Broncos loss in order to jump into that final playoff spot, and while their post-season odds (11 per cent) are slightly better than that of the Bengals (six), it’s hard to see Miami doing much of anything without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa taking snaps.

The Bengals have the toughest path: They need to defeat the Steelers on Saturday and then pray to the football gods for both a Broncos loss and a Dolphins loss or tie on Sunday.