NFL Week 3 betting preview: Are Bills, Chiefs risky road favourites?

Week 3 in the NFL kicked off Thursday night with Cleveland’s 29-17 win over Pittsburgh.

There are six additional divisional matchups on this week’s schedule, including an anticipated AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins who put up the two high scores in Week 2 combining for 83 points in a pair of impressive wins.

The favourite (Browns -4.5) and over (37.5) both hit on Thursday, which has been an uncommon double result early this season. Overall, underdogs are 18-14-1 against the spread (ATS) and a whopping two-thirds of games (22-11) have finished under the total.

Let’s look at the Week 3 board with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus weekly picks and parlays.

SPREADS & TOTALS

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (+2.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Chicago Bears (-2.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) | Over/Under: 50.5
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (+5.5) | Over/Under: 52.5
Detroit Lions (+5.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) | Over/Under: 52.5
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots (+2.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.0) vs. New York Jets (+6.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (+1.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders (+6.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (N/A) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (N/A) | Over/Under: N/A
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Atlanta Falcons (+1.0) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-1.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) vs. Denver Broncos (+1.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Dallas Cowboys (+1.0) vs. New York Giants (-1.0) | Over/Under: 39.5

As you can see above, oddsmakers are expecting the Week 3 slate to be rather competitive with no spread exceeding 6.5 points.

The Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Saints, Bengals, Raiders, Eagles, Rams and 49ers are visiting teams laying chalk this week. Road favourites are 8-5-1 on the season.

The Chargers had been this week’s biggest listed favourites at a converted touchdown minus the hook (-7.0) until Friday afternoon when the team announced QB Justin Herbert would be a game time decision after Chase Daniel took first-team reps on Friday. You’ll have to check closer to kickoff before deciding how or if to bet on their AFC matchup against the Jaguars.

Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 with 15 TDs and two INTs playing in a dome in his career and he’s playing at the Colts, who may choose to open their retractable roof. Indy is expected to get receiver Michael Pittman back following an embarrassing 24-0 loss to the Jaguars.

Could this perhaps be the final time we see an Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady showdown?

Buffalo is allowing fewer than 150 passing yards per game and going up against Miami’s dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who combined for more than receiving 290 yards last week alone. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have allowed more yards per passing attempt (8.7) than any team this season.

Denver is the most penalized team in both total penalties and penalty yards. Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett and Matt Rhule of the Panthers could already be feeling the pressure.

Wasington's Carson Wentz currently ranks second in passing yards and is tied for the league lead with seven passing TDs through two games. He is starting against the Eagles, the team that drafted him second overall in 2016, for the first time in his career.

Micah Parsons of the Cowboys didn’t record a sack a sack against the Giants during his incredible rookie season but can he wreak havoc on Daniel Jones in prime time Monday night?

MIKEY J’S CARD …

(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some of my picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 10-16)

Here’s hoping you faded my Week 2 picks because if you did you made bank! I’m having a Matt Ryan-esque start to my 2022 – taking the under in two of the three highest scoring games of the week did not boost the confidence – but just like the Colts QB aims to bounce back against a daunting opponent in Week 3, I aim to bounce back against a daunting board.

Favourites ATS (3-4): 49ers -1.5, Raiders -1.5, Rams -3.5, Chiefs -5.5

Underdogs ATS (2-3): Packers +1.5, Cowboys +1.0, Dolphins +5.5

Overs (1-3): BUF/MIA 52.5, LV/TEN 45.5

Unders (1-3): HOU/CHI 39.5, DAL/NYG 39.5, GB/TB 41.5

Moneyline dogs (2-3): Packers, Cowboys

Hill, Stefon Diggs and Waddle rank 1/2/3 respectively in NFL receiving yards this year and after both teams posted 40-burgers in Week 2, I’m betting the over mostly hoping this game lives up to its exciting potential. There’s also several key defensive injuries for the Bills.

The Colts only being 5.5-point dogs against the Chiefs has the smell of a rat line. Sniff sniff Ravens -2.5 is another. More than 70 per cent of the public is on both the Chiefs and Ravens yet those lines have shifted towards the Colts and Patriots throughout the week. Ravens-Patriots is a dog or pass situation for me with but just like the public I’m having a tough time envisioning this Colts team shutting down Mahomes after how bad they’ve looked to open the season. I realize this is a square pick yet I’m making it anyways!

THE WEEKLY RIDLEY
(Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for betting on games. The NFL concluded he placed three multi-leg parlay bets (three-, five- and eight-game parlays) that included the Falcons winning. Each week throughout the regular season we will attempt to cash three levels of Ridley-inspired parlays. 2022 record: 0-6 after two weeks)

OK, friends, this could be one! Expectations for the Falcons were so low this season there were only a handful of weeks on the schedule we had circled as a potential victory. Week 3 against Seattle is the first of those weeks. Atlanta put up a fight in the fourth quarter versus the Rams but fell to 0-2 on the season. There’s some legit optimism the Falcons can post their first win of the year. Hitching my wagon to last year’s Super Bowl finalists to help complete the first level.

Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+330): Falcons (-105), Rams (-180), Bengals (-240)

Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+941): Falcons (-105), Rams (-180), Bengals (-240), Eagles (-290), 49ers (-125)

Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+5668): Falcons (-105), Rams (-180), Bengals (-240), Eagles (-290), 49ers (-125), Vikings (-260), Packers (+100), Cowboys (+100)

Weekly Ridley Confidence Level...