NFL football is back, and we have three weeks under our belt! As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.”
When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space.
Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.
1. The Swiftie Effect is real
Taylor Swift is so big, she’s made an immediate impact on the most popular sport in North America. When she showed up to watch Travis Kelce and the defending champs last week, 24.4 million Americans watched the Kansas City Chiefs blow out the Chicago Bears. Not only was it the No. 1-rated broadcast of the week, it was the No. 1 show on TV among 12–49-year-old females. Now she’s expected to be in attendance Sunday night in New York, where Kansas City will take on the New York Jets. Already, resale tickets are up approximately 70 per cent.
2. Oh no for 0-3 teams
There are four teams left at 0-3 and they happen to be playing each other in two games this week. In the Super Bowl era, 251 teams have started 0-3. Only six of them have made the playoffs. That’s 2.4 per cent. The last one to do so was the 2018 Houston Texans, who are the only team to do it this century. There is a reason Cincinnati Bengals star QB Joe Burrow risked it all and decided to play while still being hampered by his calf strain. An 0-3 start was untenable.
3. Good News Bears
It seems like every time you look up, there is another negative news story coming out of Chicago. Here’s the potential good news that can be derived from their bad start. There are four 0-3 teams, and the Bears own the draft picks of two of them -- their own and the Carolina Panthers. It's a draft loaded with offensive playmakers. Brighter days could be ahead in the Windy City.
4. Fields' woes
Since the start of 2021, Justin Fields has nine starts with a QBR (total quarterback rating) under 10 from the pocket, which is the most in the NFL. Last week versus Kansas City, Fields put up a career-low 1.5 QBR from inside the pocket. As much as Chicago’s play-calling has been rightfully questioned, the truth is Fields has missed easy throws while having good protection. Fields has missed on 25 per cent of his passes when he wasn’t under pressure, which is the highest off-target rate of any QB when not pressured since he entered the league in 2021.
5. Stroud off to record start
Fields' fellow Ohio State alumnus, C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans, has fared much better to start his career. Few quarterbacks ever have had a better start. Stroud is officially the first QB from Ohio State to throw for 380-plus yards in an NFL game. Stroud already has more 300-yard passing games than Fields. Fields has played in 28 games, while Stroud has played in three. The Texans’ rookie QB has 906 passing yards in his first three NFL starts and is the third player in NFL history with at least 900 passing yards in his first three games, joining just Cam Newton and Justin Herbert. Stroud’s 121 passing attempts without an interception sets an NFL record for his first three starts.
6. Chase all over the place
It’s no secret Ja'Marr Chase broke out of his early-season slump to the tune of 12 receptions for 142 yards against the Los Angeles Rams. The Cincinnati Bengals moved him around to get him favourable matchups. On Monday, he lined up 17 times on the wide right, 16 times wide out on the left, 14 times from the slot and twice in the backfield.
7. Need for speed
The recipe for success for the Miami Dolphins is clear. They’re just faster with the football than anybody else in the sport, including the defences trying to keep up with them. According to Next Gen stats, the six fastest top speeds reached while carrying the ball this year have all been Miami Dolphins players.
1. Tyreek Hill, Week 3: 22.07 m.p.h.
2. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.93 m.p.h.
3. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.66 m.p.h.
4. Raheem Mostert, Week 2: 21.62 m.p.h.
5. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.52 m.p.h.
6. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.5 m.p.h.
8. Tua's hot start
Much has been made of the hot start Tua Tagovailoa has gotten off to this season as an early MVP favourite. Truth is he’s just doing exactly what he did last year. Seriously.
After Week 3 last year, Tagovailoa’s stat line was 72 of 101 passing with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
This season after three games his stat line is 72 of 101 passing with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
Tagovailoa isn’t just talented, he’s consistent.
9. More on Miami
Because of that team speed and the consistency and accuracy of Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have been one of the most explosive offenses we’ve ever seen. The Dolphins average 1.98 EPA (expected points added) per drive. That’s double what the next best offence -- the Los Angeles Chargers -- has done this year. Thus far Miami has created an explosive play on 18.3 per cent of plays. No team in the last 20 years has been higher than 16.5 per cent and that was the “greatest show on turf” -- the 2000 St. Louis Rams. That’s legendary company to keep. Only time will tell if they can keep pace.
10. Zach under attack
You can understand why the New York Jets locker room might be getting exasperated with Zach Wilson’s struggles at QB. You can make an argument no player has ever been afforded the opportunity to play this bad for this long. Wilson ranks dead last in passer rating this season, which is a familiar position. Wilson is already the only player since 1970 to finish last in back-to-back seasons as he did in 2021 and 2022. He can become the first player in NFL history to do it in three straight years. The issue isn’t solely his, as he is playing behind a bad and banged-up offensive line. The biggest issue is he fails even when not under pressure.
On plays where the defence doesn’t get a pass rush win, Wilson has the lowest QBR at just 7.6 and lowest completion rate of 52 per cent in the NFL out of 34 qualified quarterbacks. His 4.9 yards per drop back has him a little bit better comparatively at 29th.
Pressure or not, his 54.9 completion percentage in his career is the worst since 2010. Couple the fact that he’s lost five consecutive starts and has the defending champion Chiefs next on the schedule and things aren’t looking great for Wilson to remain a viable option in New York.
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