NFL Week 4 player props to watch: Hopkins in for touch matchup against Ramsey

It’s Week 4 already so that means we have even more information to make better decisions when it comes to player props. If you’re feeling frisky and want to place a little wager on a player prop or two, hopefully, this piece will help you make some informed choices.

Here are some players that I’ve identified that could have a nice day on Sunday.

Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 4-5 (-2.0 units)

Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m. ET

Wager to watch: RB Alvin Kamara total receiving yards (Over 33.5 -120, Under 33.5 -120)

The Giants visit the Saints who are finally playing a game in the Superdome after technically opening with a home game in Jacksonville against the Packers in Week 1 because of Hurricane Ida. New York is 0-3 while New Orleans looks to improve to 3-1, but we want to take a closer look at Alvin Kamara’s receiving yards total for this game.

Kamara had 24 carries for 89 yards and caught three of his four targets for 29 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 28-13 win over the Patriots at Foxborough. The 26-year-old running back has averaged 4.4 yards per target on 14 targets with an average distance of 6.2 yards per reception this season. Kamara is also receiving 23.0% of the Saints’ team targets and is averaging 20.7 touches per game.

The Giants, meanwhile, have struggled big time in trying to stop running backs from catching passes. New York has given up 202 receiving yards to RBs this season which ranks 31st in the NFL. The Giants have coughed up 8.78 yards per target to backs so far this season which is 30th overall. The Giants have surrendered 21 receptions to running backs in 2021 which is tied for 25th in the league.

Pick: I know that Alvin Kamara is averaging just 6.2 yards per catch this season, which is the lowest mark of his career, but the Giants haven’t had an answer for running backs catching passes out of the backfield. Until New York can prove that they can shut down RBs, I think this total is too low, so take the total of 33.5 OVER at -120.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams 4:05 p.m. ET

Wager to watch: WR DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards (Over 66.5 +105, Under 66.5 -145)

The Rams host the Cardinals for first place in the very tough NFC West at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles has won eight straight games in this series, all under Sean McVay. This should be a good one, but we want to zero in on DeAndre Hopkins’ total receiving yards prop for this match-up.

Arizona’s DeAndre Hopkins had just three catches on six targets for 21 yards against Jacksonville last week while dealing with a rib injury. Hopkins did return to full practice on Thursday but could be in tough this week against Rams all-pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Hopkins had 12 receptions (6.0 per game) on 23 targets (11.5 per game) for 87 yards (43.5 per game) in two games against Los Angeles last season. The 29-year-old wide receiver is averaging just 0.86 air yards per snap this season and has only one reception that’s gone over 20-plus yards and none that have exceeded 40-plus yards.

Los Angeles has done a solid job against wide receivers this season. The Rams are giving up just 7.53 yards per target this season to WRs which ranks seventh best in the league.

Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris said this week that Jalen Ramsey may not shadow Hopkins wherever he goes but says “he’ll have his moments against Hopkins” but couldn’t say for sure that Ramsey will be isolated on him. If Ramsey does match-up against Hopkins, that’ll be good for under bettors. Let’s throw out that Week 17 game from last season where it was Chris Streveler taking most snaps at quarterback because of Kyler Murray playing hurt. Let’s focus on the Week 13 matchup where Ramsey held Hopkins to just three receptions for 20 yards.

Pick: I know this total feels a little low for a wide receiver of Hopkins’ calibre, but Arizona’s number-one WR is playing banged up and will see a lot a Jalen Ramsey. I’m taking Hopkins’ receiving yards total of 66.5 to go UNDER the number at -145.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots 8:20 p.m. ET

Wager to watch: WR Jakobi Meyers total receiving yards (Over 62.5 -130, Under 62.5 -110)

Tom Brady returns to Gillette Stadium for the first time to face Bill Belichick after leading the Patriots to six Super Bowl titles. This is arguably the most highly anticipated regular season in NFL history, but we’re going to discuss Jakobi Meyers and his total receiving yards prop.

Jakobi Meyers had nine receptions on 14 targets for 94 yards in last week’s 28-13 home loss to the Saints. Meyers has 19 catches for 176 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per target on 29 targets (9.6 per game) this season. The 24-year-old is getting 24.8% of New England’s team targets and his average depth of target is 9.5 yards. Meyers is averaging a robust 92.0 air yards per game and 1.47 air yards per snap this season.

The Bucs, meanwhile, were torched by the Rams through the air last week highlighted by that 75-yard touchdown reception by DeSean Jackson. Tampa Bay allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 343 yards and 27 completions on 38 attempts in that 34-24 loss in Los Angeles. The Buccaneers continue to be excellent against the run, but they just can’t stop the pass through three games this season. The Bucs have given up 723 yards to WRs this season which ranks 30th in the NFL. Tampa Bay has also allowed 62 receptions to wide-outs in 2021 which is in a four-way tie for the worst mark in the league.

Pick: This game will obviously be all about Tom Brady which could mean that the Patriots will be forced to play from behind and throw the football. The Bucs haven’t been able to slow down WRs so far this season which means Jakobi Meyers could have a nice day. I really like this spot for Meyers and I’m taking the total of 62.5 receiving yards to go OVER at -130.

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