As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on Blueprint 3, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices, or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and in group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.
1. The Swiftie Effect is still real
Anyone who thought the Taylor Swift effect was a fluke was sadly mistaken. Swift’s presence at Met Life Stadium during Sunday Night Football translated into 27 million average viewers on NBC. For context, the 2023 NBA Finals averaged 11.6 million viewers on ABC. The Kansas City Chiefs versus New York Jets on Sunday Night Football was the most watched Sunday show since Super Bowl LVII. It’s clear what demo is inflating the numbers. Teen girl viewership was up 53 per cent. And those girls got what they came for. That would be both during the game and during the commercial breaks. Swift was shown 17 times during the telecast but also had two commercials for her new movie. That’s the same amount of commercials Patrick Mahomes had during the game and only one less than Travis Kelce had that night.
2. Slow starts in New York
Remember when Brian Daboll won coach of the year last season and it seemed like he had turned the New York Giants around? They’ve reverted back to quietly being among the worst teams in the NFL. More than anything they don’t seem prepared to play. The Giants have been outscored by 68 points in the first quarter this season, tied for the most since 2000. They are minus-76 on the season, the worst in the league. Denver lost a game by 50 and the Giants still have a worse point differential. Their rivals in the same building haven’t been much better and share the early-game issues. The Jets haven’t scored a point in the first quarter all season.
3. Wilson > the GOAT?
Things aren’t all bad for the Jets as their QB is showing some signs of promise. Zach Wilson is coming off his best performance as a pro putting up a career-high 105.2 passer rating against the defending champion Chiefs. Wilson played so well that he statistically outplayed the best QB in the game, something nobody has ever done before. Seriously. Wilson became the first QB to have more completions, more TD passes, more passing yards, and fewer interceptions in a matchup against Mahomes. This the first time it’s ever happened out of all 127 total matchups Mahomes has had with other QB’s not just in the NFL but dating back to the NCAA.
4. AFC West Mistakes
Remember when the entire AFC West thought the Chiefs were vulnerable without Tyreek Hill last year, so they want all in? Well, it wasn’t a failure just because Kansas City won it all. It hasn’t worked out because of the big defensive signings they brought in to slow down Mahomes that haven't worked out at all. The Oakland Raiders added Chandler Jones for three years, $51 million. The Los Angeles Chargers added JC Jackson for five years, $82.5 million. The Denver Broncos added Randy Gregory for five years, $70 million. All three players were released or traded this week, a big reason why all three teams — and especially their defences — are struggling.
5. Burrow being battered
After being sacked three times and hit nine times last week, it’s clear the hits and lack of mobility are starting to impact the production of Joe Burrow. Burrow became the first QB to have at least 150 passes in their first four games and not average at least five yards per attempt. Burrow is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, to be exact which is last in the NFL. This coming from a player playing in an offence that is known for the deep ball. The most concerning part is Burrow is also known for his accuracy and coming into this week, he’s thrown the most uncatchable passes other than every QB not named Zach Wilson.
6. Struggling Philly D
The Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated but when you look closer, they haven’t been nearly as dominant, particularly on defence. Last year they led the league in QBR allowed, sack percentage, and yards per play. This year they rank 22nd in QBR, 21st in sack percentage, and 17th in yards per play. Overall, they are 12th in defensive efficiency after finishing second in that category a year ago. With some changes in defensive personnel and play-caller — Sean Desai is running the unit in his first season as defensive coordinator — the drop-off is not a total surprise but will need to be rectified as Eagles' schedule gets tougher.
7. Break the tie by breaking tackles
The rivalry game of the weekend is the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The season series between the two storied franchises is tied at 19-19-1 with the tie coming all the way back in 1969. The tiebreaker in this game will be the ability to get the 49ers playmakers on the ground. It’s not something the Cowboys are especially good at. Since 2021, which was Dan Quinn’s first season as Cowboys defensive coordinator, the Dallas defence is giving up 5.7 yards after the catch per reception which ranks 30th in the NFL. San Francisco, on the other hand, averages 6.5 yards after catch per reception which is the best in the league. If you’re looking for one aspect of the game that may be the difference, the ability or inability to tackle the Niners playmakers will likely be it.
8. McCaffrey making history
The hardest Niners skill player to slow down is Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey hasn’t just put himself in the MVP conversation, he’s started the year at a historic pace. He’s one of just three players to start the year with 600 scrimmage yards and seven TDs in their first four games. Those other players are hall-of-famers Emmitt Smith (1995) and Jim Brown, who did it twice (1958 and 1963).
9. Precision Prescott
Much has been made about Dak Prescott frequently throwing the ball to the other team a year ago. However, when the Cowboys QB is on, he puts balls in tight windows that only his receivers can get. Prescott completed 10.7 per cent of his passes over expected in Week 4, his seventh game with a CPOE over 10 per cent over the last two seasons. No other quarterback has more than five games with a CPOE over 10 per cent since 2022 and only two have more than three. The way the Niners defence has been playing, he will need to have another one this weekend.
10. New England, old problems
The Patriots have struggled mightily on offence, but nobody really should be surprised. It’s been masqueraded by the strength of their defence, but this has been a bad offensive football team ever since the keys of the franchise were handed over to Mac Jones. Jones is 7-11 in his starts since 2022 with 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. This season 71 per cent of their offensive drives have ended in a punt or turnover, which leads the league. It’s not all on Jones and he isn’t being helped by their playcalling. So far this year the Patriots have run just 26 plays with play-action and 247 without it. Play-action is a young QB’s best friend as it gives them clear sightlines in the secondary. The Patriots are doing things as if they still have a hall-of-fame quarterback even though they have a QB who is still finding his way.
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