NFL Week 6 By the Numbers: Eagles poised to run over Jets

As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on Blueprint 3, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices, or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and in group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.

1. Chiefs streak

The AFC West still runs through Kansas City. No better example of that is their dominance over the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs have now won 16 straight over Denver after Thursday's 19-8 win. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs, Peyton Manning and Alex Smith were the quarterbacks. They’re both now TV analysts.

2. Mahomes over everybody

Patrick Mahomes isn’t only dominant over the Broncos. Mahomes is the 10th starting quarterback to beat 31 different franchises and the first to do it before the age of 30. Mahomes isn’t putting up his usual video game numbers and the Chiefs offence hasn’t really got out of first gear. Nothing to see here. It hasn’t mattered. Despite all that, Kansas City has only trailed for seven minutes total in the second half this entire season and all seven minutes were in Week 1. It hasn’t been pretty, but Mahomes and the Chiefs are still the team to beat.

3. Run Eagles Run

When you examine the numbers the most lopsided matchup this week becomes apparent. The Philadelphia Eagles are second in rush yards per game and fourth in yards before contact per rush. They face the New York Jets, who have been playing better of late but boast the 29th-ranked defence in rush yards against per game and 26th in yards before contact per rush. Because of their ability to run the ball and control the clock, the Eagles are the safest bet of the Sunday slate.

4. Ridder at home and in the clutch

Much has been made of Desmond Ridder’s home and road splits. Ridder is 5-0 at home as an NFL starter and 0-4 on the road. The Atlanta Falcons host the Washington Commanders this week. More impressive is how he’s been in the clutch. In four of his nine starts, Ridder has led a game-winning drive.

5. Defensive MVP Milano on IR

The Bills are dealing with a bunch of injuries on defence but the loss of Matt Milano for the year might be the most significant. Not only is he the player that gets the calls defensively and lines everybody up, but his absence has also proved costly in the past. Milano has been inactive in 12 games in his career. The Buffalo Bills are 7-5 in those games and have given up an average of 24.3 points per game.

6. Cincinnati Safety Concern

As much concern as there have been over the Bengals offence and Joe Burrow’s health, the real group in Cincinnati that has been the issue is the defence. Why you ask? In the off-season they lost both of their starting safeties, Jesse Bates and Von Bell. Their loss has been severely felt. In 2022 the Cincinnati Bengals defence were ranked sixth in points per game allowed, second in total QBR and seventh in rush yards per game. This year they’ve really fallen off. Thus far in 2023 they’re tied for 20th in points per game allowed 18th in total QBR, and 31st, in rush yards per game against. Which is why they’ve gone from fifth in defensive efficiency to 19th.

7. See Ceedee

It’s as if the Dallas Cowboys have forgotten they have a No. 1 receiver in Ceedee Lamb. So much so Richard Sherman of Fox Sports has questioned whether or not Lamb deserves to be considered with the true No. 1 distinction. The numbers say the issue isn’t ability but opportunity. So far this year Lamb has 27 receptions and 358 yards receiving on just 35 targets. Lamb is fifth in the NFL in average separation but only 17th in target percentage. Lamb averages three yards of separation. He’s open! It’s on Mike McCarthy to find ways to get him the ball more.

8. Love Lost

Green Bay’s offence is trending in the wrong direction and has scored three or fewer points in the first half for three straight games. The biggest issue is Jordan Love’s accuracy, or lack thereof. Love’s 55.6 completion percentage ranks 34th in the league. He’s not just missing teammates, he’s throwing passes to the other team. Love has back-to-back games with multiple interceptions. Aaron Rodgers never did that with the Packers.

Love got off to a fast start. In his first three games he was 2-1 with a 68 total QBR, seven touchdown passes, one interception and had a three per cent sack percentage. But as the league has been able to see his tape and scout him the numbers have plummeted. In the last two games, Love is 0-2 due in part to his 10 total QBR with one touchdown pass, five interceptions and a nine per cent sack percentage.

9. Houston doesn’t have a problem at QB

The early returns are in, and the Houston Texans have found their franchise QB. C.J. Stroud set the record for the most consecutive passes to start a career without throwing an interception at 186 surpassing Dak Prescott (176) and Tom Brady (162). And it’s not as if Stroud has been safe with the football and just thrown checkdowns. Stroud’s 7.9 yards per attempt is fifth in the NFL.

10. UK Jags all about D

The Jacksonville Jaguars went to London and found a defence. During the first three games of the season, all in the U.S., they were giving up 25 points per game, creating 25 per cent pressure percentage, while surrendering five touchdowns and forcing just two interceptions. In the last two games, both abroad, they’ve given up just 13.5 points per game, created 33 per cent pressure percentage, allowed three touchowns and forced three interceptions. The Jaguars are 0-2 at home (in Florida) thus far. Hopefully that defence travels as they play the Indianapolis Colts for first place in the AFC South.