NFL Week 7 betting preview: Are Giants dubious dogs vs. Jaguars?

Week 7 got off to a hot start with the Cardinals beating the Saints 42-34 in DeAndre Hopkins’ season debut. It was the highest-scoring Thursday Night Football contest since the 41-39 Rams-49ers classic from 2017, however that’s not what most NFL fans were talking about after the final snap.

While the game was ongoing, news broke that Carolina had traded Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco for a huge haul of draft picks. Adding a dynamic and versatile talent like CMC to a Kyle Shanahan offence — that also has Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk — confirms the 49ers are all in on this core group and have their sights set on a Super Bowl.

Who knows how much of McCaffrey we’ll see this weekend, but it’s certainly an added layer of intrigue for the week’s most anticipated matchup against the Chiefs.

In addition to that matchup, the Titans and Colts compete for the second time in three weeks, the 5-1 Giants are suspicious underdogs against the Jaguars, and the Falcons look to improve to 7-0 against the spread (ATS) when they visit the Bengals.

Three of the top four teams in the standings — and the defending champions — are off this week, with the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 5-1 Buffalo Bills, 5-1 Minnesota Vikings and 3-3 Los Angeles Rams on bye.

Let’s take a look at the Week 7 board with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus weekly picks and parlays.

SPREADS & TOTALS

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.0) vs. Carolina Panthers (+13.0) | Over/Under: 38.5
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Detroit Lions (+6.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
New York Giants (+3.0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs. Washington Commanders (+4.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
New York Jets (+1.0) vs. Denver Broncos (-1.0) | Over/Under: 37.5
Houston Texans (+7.0) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-7.0) | Over/Under: 45.5
Seattle Seahawks (+5.0) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-5.0) | Over/Under: 50.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-7.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Chicago Bears (+7.5) vs. New England Patriots (-7.5) | Over/Under: 39.5

The Ravens have only trailed for a combined 120 seconds in games this season.

Carolina will start QB P.J. Walker and RBs D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard against the Bucs’ stout defence.

The Falcons are 6-0 ATS while the Bengals have covered in four consecutive games; Atlanta unders are 7-1 after they win outright (they upset the 49ers last week).

Dak Prescott returns for the Cowboys; Dallas is 55-33 with Prescott starting. They host a Lions team coming off a bye that’ll have RB D'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back in their lineup.

The Giants are 5-1 both straight up and ATS while the Jaguars are 4-9 ATS in their 13 most recent home games dating back to 2021.

Tennessee has beaten Indianapolis in four straight and five of the past six, including 24-17 in Week 4.

Taylor Heinicke takes over for Carson Wentz in Washington; Heinicke went 7-8 in his 15 starts in 2021.

The Broncos are 5-1 on unders this season and their matchup with the Jets has the lowest total of the week at 37.5. The Jets are the most popular play among the public this week with the line shifting a couple points in New York's direction.

Las Vegas is 1-2 ATS as a favourite and Houston is 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Tua Tagovailoa is back starting for the Dolphins when they play the Steelers.

The Chargers and Seahawks have met just five times in the past 20 years.

Chicago and New England also don’t see each other often but when they’ve met over the past 20 years, the Pats have dominated — averaging 35 points per game over the past five meetings.

MIKEY J’S CARD …

(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 37-47)

Favourites ATS (9-12): Jaguars -3.0, Bengals -6.5, Packers -4.5

Underdogs ATS (11-7): Colts +2.5, 49ers +2.5, Seahawks +5.0

Overs (4-10): NYG/JAX 43.5, ATL/CIN 47.5

Unders (6-9): DET/DAL 48.5, HOU/LV 45.5, SEA/LAC 50.5

Moneyline dogs (7-9): Colts, Jets

The most glaring line this week is Giants-Jaguars. Considering how these teams have performed in the standings and ATS so far this season, you'd think the Giants would be favoured even on the road. The public seems to agree since they're all over the Giants, so that's why I’m not hesitating to take the Jags.

THE WEEKLY RIDLEY

(Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for betting on games. The NFL concluded he placed three multi-leg parlay bets (three-, five- and eight-game parlays) that included the Falcons winning. Each week throughout the regular season we will attempt to cash three levels of Ridley-inspired parlays. 2022 record: 3-3)

Thankfully the Ridley Parlay has hit each time the Falcons have won this season, slightly making up for my poor record through six weeks. Last week Atlanta beat San Fran and the two L.A. teams also earned wins to cash Level 1. This week we're getting a bit more aggressive by using three dogs as our base and go from there.

Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+1350): Falcons (+­­­­­230), Colts (+120), Jets (+100)

Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+2260): Falcons (+­­­­­230), Colts (+120), Jets (+100), Dolphins (-350), Patriots (-380)

Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+6780): Falcons (+­­­­­230), Colts (+120), Jets (+100), Dolphins (-350), Patriots (-380), Ravens (-280), Raiders (-310), Jaguars (-160)

Weekly Ridley Confidence Level: Low-ish. The Bengals have been playing better in recent weeks and the Falcons struggle getting to the QB, which could see Joe Burrow put up a nice statline Sunday.

(Odds and 2022 trends via Covers, moneyline odds via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)