NFL Week 7 By the Numbers: Get ready for Hurts vs. Tagovailoa

As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on "The Blueprint 3," “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.

1. Battle of the Bama Boys

The Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Miami Dolphins isn’t just a matchup of two of the best teams this season. The battle of former Alabama teammates isn’t just a duel of two of the best to have ever played for the Crimson Tide — they’re two of the best in the NFL right now. Jalen Hurts is fifth in total QBR, fifth in yards per attempt and third in 50-yard completions. Tua Tagovailoa is third in total QBR, first in yards per attempt and second in 50-yard completions. His 75 total QBR this season has him ranked fifth. This game could separate the two of them as MVP candidates.  

2. Interceptions Hurting Hurts

Hurts' kryptonite this year has been interceptions, which is out of character. He has seven interceptions already this season. Last season, Hurts had only six interceptions in 15 games. His eight turnovers so far this season are the same amount he had all last season. His eight last year was tied for the fewest in the NFL with a minimum of 15 QB starts.

The main issue has been the deep-ball accuracy, which historically for Hurts has been a strength. Hurts is completing 39.3 per cent of his passes 20 yards or more downfield this season, which is just 15th in the NFL. His 60 total QBR has him ranking 10th in the NFL.  

3. Defending Champs Defence  

During their five-game win streak, the Kansas City Chiefs defence is first in points per game (13.4), second in QBR (29.1) and third in yards per game (267.2). Kansas City has held opponents to 20 points or fewer in all five wins.  

When you dig in on the numbers, the difference for Kansas City is its ability to cover and get off the field on third down. The Chiefs' average target separation is just three yards, which is tied for first. They’re fifth in NFL defensive efficiency and allowing a conversion on only 36 per cent of third downs, good enough for ninth in the NFL.  

4. Putrid Patriots  

The New England Patriots are 1-5 for the first time in 28 years. But it’s actually worse than that. Not only have they been losing, they’re not even competitive. Thus far, they’ve been outscored by 80 points, second most in the NFL. They have led for only 15.5 per cent of the time this season. It’s going to be a long season in Foxboro.  

5. Jets Flying on D

Robert Saleh called his shot on how his team managed its schedule, including the best QBs in the game, saying the New York Jets have faced “a gauntlet of quarterbacks” and that the defence has “embarrassed all of them.” Strong words but numbers don’t lie. The Jets defence held Patrick Mahomes to a 63.6 rating and two interceptions. They frustrated Josh Allen to the tune of a 62.7 rating and three interceptions. They also held Hurts to a 60 rating and three interceptions.  

Their defence’s ability to turn the ball over is the key factor in their success. The Jets are 3-0 when they force at least three turnovers and 0-3 when they do not.

6. Historic Defence in Cleveland  

The Cleveland Browns are allowing just 200.4 yards per game this season, 60 yards fewer than anyone else. In fact, it’s the fewest yards anyone has allowed through the first five games of the season since the 1971 Baltimore Colts, who allowed just 167.2 yards against. No surprise the Browns lead the NFL with the highest efficiency, at 85.0.  

7. National Parity League  

With one-third of the season in the books, we have seen a mixture of parity and mediocrity. Nobody is undefeated; even the elite teams have flaws. But there is a murky middle chasing pack that is hard to discern as contenders or pretenders. Fifteen teams have three wins or three losses. Eight teams don’t have an offence or defence in the top half of the league, and yet four of those teams are .500. In the uber-competitive AFC, only four teams have a losing record.  

The impact of so many teams being in the race alongside a race to the bottom for a few teams already in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes could make for a busy trade deadline. Last season, there were 19 in-season trades. We could top that number this year. We are starting to see some now, and we still have awhile before the league’s Oct. 31, 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT deadline.  

8. Schedule the Texans as Contenders

One of the teams in the pack you should expect to emerge might surprise you: the Houston Texans. Just look at their remaining schedule. Houston has the second-easiest remaining schedule, according to DVOA. After their bye this week, they go to the Panthers, host the Buccaneers, are away against the Bengals, then host the Cardinals, Jaguars and Broncos, before they are travel to face the Jets and Titans, then host the Browns, then host Titans and finish on the road against the Colts. How many of those games will they not be favoured in? Assuming they are healthy, maybe one or two, max.  

9. DeMeco’s Defence  

It’s not hard to discern the catalyst for the Texans' turnaround. Regardless if it's home or on the road, defence travels. DeMeco Ryans has come in and fixed the defence, which is allowing 15.7 points per game during a three-game winning streak. They have four games with two takeaways already this season.  

When you think of the most dominant quarterback and wide-receiver combination of the era, you better start thinking about Detroit. They aren’t household names, but Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown are putting up big numbers together. They have the third-highest receiving percentage by a QB and WR duo in the last three seasons with a minimum of 200 targets.  

The Goff to St. Brown connection ends in a completion 74 per cent of the time. For the era, that’s behind only Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp at 76 per cent and Tom Brady to Chris Godwin at 75 per cent. Not a one-trick pony, Goff isn’t only keying on St. Brown though, despite what the numbers might indicate. Last week, he completed passes to 10 different receivers.  

10. Money Goff on Money Downs  

Not only has Goff been productive, he’s also been clutch. His best football has been on third downs. On third down this year, his first-down per attempts percentage is 48 (second in the NFL), his completion percentage is 67 per cent (fifth) and his total QBR is 75 (fifth). Pretty good for a game manager.