NFL Week 9 By the Numbers: Burrow bouncing back, where is Von Miller?

As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on The Blueprint 3, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.

1. Putrid passing for Tennessee

The passing offence has been non-existent for the Tennessee Titans. Halfway through the season, their passing touchdown leaders are Will Levis with four, Ryan Tannehill, with one, and Derrick Henry, with one. Six passing TDs after eight games is putrid in the modern-day NFL.

2. Home sweet home for Baltimore

Six of Baltimore’s final nine games are at home, tied for the most in the NFL. That’s important to note because Lamar Jackson is 15-2 at home in November or later.

3. Where is Von Miller?

The Buffalo Bills brought in Von Miller to lead their pass rush and lead them to a Super Bowl. Last year, he got hurt. This year, they slowly worked him back off the IR, but now that he’s on the active roster, he’s barely played and they’ve barely generated a pass rush. Miller's defensive snaps have been consistently low. In Week 5, he was on the field for 18 plays, which was 22 per cent of defensive snaps. In Week 6, he was on the field for 26 plays, which was 36 per cent of defensive snaps.  In Week 7, he was on the field for six plays, which was 11 per cent of defensive snaps. And in Week 8, he was on the field for 22 plays, which was 36 per cent of defensive snaps. This development is important because when Buffalo gets 10 or more QB pressures, it's 4-1 and when it's fewer than 10, the Bills are 1-2.

4. Run, Joe, run

Want to know how you can tell Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals offence is back? Burrow is running again. After he suffered a calf strain in the pre-season, he wasn’t his usual mobile self in the regular season. The week off during the Bengals bye has changed that. Burrow had 14 cumulative rushing yards in his first six games, including two games with negative rushing yards. Burrow had 43 rushing yards in Week 8 against San Francisco alone in a win.

5. Burrow bouncing back

After a rough start, Burrow has been trending in the right direction for a while. After the first four weeks of the season, the Bengals were 1-3 and Burrow had a 58-completion percentage, 35 total QBR, two TDs and two interceptions. From Weeks 5-8, the Bengals were 3-0 and Burrow had a 78-completion percentage, 68 total QBR, 8 TDs and two interceptions.  

6. Jahmyr Gibbs is making a difference

The Detroit Lions surprised everyone when they took a running back in the first round and signed one in free agency. To start the season, it seemed like they didn’t have much of a plan for rookie runner Jahmyr Gibbs because David Montgomery was their trusted choice. In the first four games, Gibbs had just 13.3 touches per game, 62.3 scrimmage yards per game and no TDs. Since Montgomery has been hurt, Gibbs has stepped up. In the last two games, Gibbs has 25.5 touches per game, 157.5 scrimmage yards per game and two TDs. Montgomery’s injury may have prompted Gibbs to be the lead back everyone expected him to be to start the season.

7. Cheetah > Chiefs

This week, the Kansas City Chiefs face off for the first time against their former Pro Bowl receiver, Tyreke Hill, and the Miami Dolphins. As Hill attempts to rack up 2,000 yards in a season, the Chiefs wide receivers as a whole would be lucky to get to 2,000. They very well might be the worst wide receiver group in the NFL. The Chiefs receiver room is the worst in the league, with 12 drops. The issues aren’t limited to them, as the team's 19 drops in a season are the most in the NFL. Not the type of records you want to be setting.

8. The race for 2K

Hill has talked openly about wanting to get to 2,000 yards receiving in a season. If someone reaches that total this season, it might not be Hill but rather A.J. Brown who does it. Brown became the first player with 125 yards in six straight games. He’s now on pace for 1,987 yards, the most ever.

9. Mahomes owns Fangio

Despite the struggles of their receivers, a favourable coordinator is next on the schedule for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes owns Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio was with the Dolphins from 2019-21 and Mahomes was 6-0 versus him during that span, with a 65.7 completion percentage, 231.3 passing yards per game with seven TD passes to just two interceptions.

10. The East is in the house

Simply put, Jalen Hurts own the NFC East. Outside of Mahomes, no other QB is more dominant in divisional games. Against NFC East opponents, Hurts has a 6-1 record, tied for second in divisional games as Mahomes is the only quarterback with a better record within his division. Hurts has a 74 total QBR, which is the best for any NFL QB in divisional games. He’s also got 15 TDs to just two interceptions (second) and 7.7 yards per attempts (fourth) against the NFC East. Not a good sign for the Dallas Cowboys, who are coming to town this week. Hurts has been pretty good this season, as his 66 total QBR this season is good enough for sixth in the NFL.