We head into super wild card weekend on fire! We went a sparkling 3-0 last week to wrap up the regular season. Let’s try and build off that perfect Week 18 team!
I’ve done all the work for you here in case you want to make your football Sunday a little more interesting.
Here are some of the plays that can hopefully make your super wild card weekend even more super!
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 29-26 (-2.80 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: TE Dalton Schultz total receiving yards (Over 41.5 -120, Under 41.5 -120)
Old playoff rivals will meet once again in the postseason for the first time since the 1990s as the Cowboys host the 49ers at AT&T Stadium. Dallas led the NFL in points and yards while San Francisco won four of its last five games to punch its playoff ticket. Speaking of tickets, we want to focus on Dalton Schultz’s total receiving yards prop here.
Let’s throw out Schultz’s Week 18 against the Eagles, shall we? He played a season-low 37 snaps as the Cowboys used plenty of back-ups on offence in that 51-26 destruction of Philadelphia.
Schultz had been on quite a heater before Dallas’ season finale. The 25-year-old tight end has been a favourite target of Dak Prescott lately and was on fire from Weeks 15-17. He racked up 14 receptions for 209 yards on 27 targets against the Giants, Washington and Arizona, respectively.
His per game averages are also rock solid for a tight end. Schultz averaged 4.59 receptions on 6.12 targets for an eye-popping 10.36 receiving yards per catch. Dallas’ No. 1 tight end was even better at home by averaging 11.7 yards per reception.
Let’s dive into some of Schultz’s advanced metrics that are well above league average. He’s averaging 40.1 air yards per game and is garnering 13.8 per cent of the Cowboys’ team targets. Schultz has also averaged a very healthy 0.03 yards per route run this season.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have struggled to stop the tight end position lately. San Fran was burned by Rams tight end Tyler Higbee, who hauled in six catches for 55 yards on eight targets in last Sunday’s 27-24 Niners victory. San Francisco has allowed 179 receiving yards to TEs over their past four weeks, which is 19th in the NFL in that time span. The 49ers have surrendered 7.46 yards per target to TEs over the past four weeks, which is 18th in the NFL.
Pick: San Fran will have their hands full with trying to stop Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Cedrick Wilson. I think that opens the door for Dalton Schultz to have a nice day here. Ride the hot hand and take his total of 41.5 receiving yards to go OVER at -120.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. ET
Wager(s) to watch: RB Najee Harris total rushing yards (Over 64.5 -120, Under 64.5 -120), RB Najee Harris total rushing and receiving yards (Over 88.5 -120, Under 88.5 -120)
The Steelers will try to keep the Ben Roethlisberger farewell tour going as they visit Arrowhead Stadium to square off against the Chiefs. Pittsburgh was smoked in Kansas City 36-10 in Week 16 in a game that was dominated by KC from start to finish. The lone bright spot in that matchup for the Steelers was the play of their rookie running back. Let’s dive into Najee Harris’ total rushing and total rushing and receiving yards prop here.
Harris carried the ball 19 times for 93 yards and grabbed five of his seven targets for 17 receiving yards in that Week 16 loss in Kansas City. The rookie is getting 18.06 carries per game and has averaged 3.91 yards per rush. The 23-year-old has also averaged 5.0 yards per target on 94 targets while catching passes out of the backfield. Harris is well above league average by earning 2.6 yards after contact and 66.5 per cent of his yards have come after contact. He’s also averaging 14.4 per cent of Pittsburgh’s team targets and a robust 22.4 touches per game.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been mediocre against the run all season and have the 21st ranked rush defence (117.6 rushing yards allowed per game). Kansas City has also coughed up 489 rushing yards to running backs over their past four weeks, which is 28th in the NFL in that span. KC is giving up 5.20 yards per carry to running backs in their last four games, which is 30th in the league in that time frame. The Chiefs have also been struggling against running backs catching balls out of the backfield. Kansas City’s pass defence has also conceded 5.12 yards per target to RBs over their past four weeks which ranks 16th in the NFL.
Pick: The Steelers are double-digit underdogs and the game plan could be to run the football against a suspect Chiefs run defence to keep it away from Patrick Mahomes. Najee Harris had a big game in Week 16 and we could see the same tonight. Take Harris’ rushing total of 64.5 to go OVER at -120 and his total rushing and receiving yards prop of 88.5 yards to go OVER at -120
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