The winners and losers of the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade

Russell Wilson was dealt to the Denver Broncos in one of the biggest trades in NFL history and there aren’t any definitive winners and losers. Seattle acquired mainly draft capital and young assets in return for the nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback.

The Wilson trade culminates the busiest 24-hour stretch thus far in the NFL off-season. I’m not sure if I’m more surprised that Aaron Rodgers is still a Packer and not a Bronco, or if Russell Wilson is a Bronco, but here we are.

Wilson waived his no-trade clause to be in Denver, which will make him the first player to start for a team that he had previously beat in the Super Bowl. Funny enough, Wilson was drafted to play baseball by the Colorado Rockies and now he’ll be playing in that state anyways.

Here are the immediate winners and losers.

Winner: Broncos receivers

Need we say more?

Winner: Nathaniel Hackett

The Broncos head coach and former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator is in Denver to run a high-powered, West Coast offence. Wilson has never been an on-time, rhythm thrower. Whether he’ll be successful in a more regimented system is up for debate.

Hackett’s presence in Denver was assumed to be in the hopes of luring Rodgers to follow him from Green Bay, but when the MVP decided to stay put, Wilson becomes a consolation prize that is less of an exact fit. Either way, for an offensive-minded head coach, the offensive tools at his disposal are appreciably better today than they were when he took the job.

Loser: Pete Carroll

Pete Carroll is 70 years old. Does he have the time or energy for a rebuild?

Carroll told anybody that would listen that the Seahawks weren’t looking to move Wilson, only for Seattle to promptly move Wilson. Carroll wants to win by running the ball and playing good defence. That’s how Seattle won the Super Bowl back in 2014. It is tough to do that when Wilson is begging to throw the ball and is the highest-paid player on the team.

This is either an ideological shift back to what Carroll wants or a sign that he is no longer wanted and the youth movement will continue both on the field and on the sidelines.

Loser: Russell Wilson

Yes, Wilson wanted a trade but the grass isn’t always greener.

The situation Wilson is leaving isn’t appreciably better than the one he’s going to. Wilson leaves the hardest division in the NFC for the hardest division in the AFC. Seattle is exploring a rebuild because, as presently constituted, they are the fourth-best team in the NFC West. Even with Wilson, the Broncos might still be the fourth-best team in AFC West. They might even be the fourth-best offence. When you compare the AFC West skill position players, Denver still has an uphill battle.

Kansas City Chiefs

QB: Patrick Mahomes

WR: Tyreke Hill

WR: Mecole Hardman

TE: Travis Kelce

RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

San Diego Chargers

QB: Justin Herbert

WR: Keenan Allen

WR: Mike Williams

TE: Jared Cook

RB: Austin Eckler

Las Vegas Raiders

QB: Derek Carr

WR: Hunter Renfrow

WR: Zay Jones

TE: Darren Waller

RB: Josh Jacobs

Denver Broncos

QB: Russell Wilson

RB: Javonte Williams

WR: Jerry Jeudy

WR: Courtland Sutton

TE: Albert Owuegbunam

Loser: Russell Wilson dynasty fantasy owners

Wilson might win more, but can we expect Wilson to have more production in his new offence? He just left DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He’ll be working with a better offensive line and running backs but certainly a less talented receiver group.

Loser: The remaining QBs on the market

Deshaun Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo lost two potential destinations on the same day. The quarterback carousel continues but the demand is decreasing. When you add Jameis Winston and Mitch Trubisky to the mix — plus any QBs in the upcoming draft class — the proverbial game of QB musical chairs tells us someone is going to be left without a dance partner.

Winner: Seattle’s salary cap

Wilson has a 2022 base salary of $19 million with a cap hit of $37 million, followed by a 2023 base salary of $21 million with a cap hit of $39 million. Seattle absorbs a $26 million dead-money cap hit but frees up $11 million by trading Wilson.

Loser: Seahawks fans

Rebuilds aren’t fun and they are far from certain. Seattle hasn’t drafted well since they selected Wilson and Bobby Wagner in 2012. And on the same day that they dealt Wilson, they also let go of the QB of their defence in Wagner.

The draft picks received in the trade mean nothing if you don’t hit on them. The haul is great but in the aggregate they only have one extra first-round pick if you look at what they traded for Jamal Adams not long ago. The easy part is tearing it down. The hard part is building it back up.

Wilson delivered Seattle its only Super Bowl title in franchise history. To willingly say goodbye to him with no clear plan to get back to championship level is a hard pill to swallow, even if it’s the right decision for the long-term future of the franchise.

Winner: Broncos fans

Football is fun when you have a good QB, and there’s no question that you need a QB to have a chance to win in the NFL. Denver has had 11 different QBs since Peyton Manning retired.

The Broncos' offence has ranked 21st or worse in scoring each year since Manning hung up the cleats and the team has had the fourth-worst quarterback rating in that time. In that same span, Wilson has had the sixth best QBR. When you look at the list of most passing TDs in their first 10 seasons, Wilson (292) is only behind Manning (306) and just ahead of Dan Marino (290). That’s A-list, Hall-of-Fame status. Even in more recent years, he’s been elite. Since 2020, Wilson’s NFL ranks seventh in QB wins, eighth in completion percentage, fourth in passing-TDs -to-interception ratio, and second in passer rating.

This is a clear upgrade in the short term.

Winner: AFC West

Never has a single division (or conference) had this much firepower.

Total QBR Rank based on 2021 numbers:

Justin Herbert: 3rd

Patrick Mahomes: 5th

Russell Wilson: 10th

Derrick Carr: 14th

The AFC is the WrestleMania of QBs. Add Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow into the mix and the AFC is loaded with franchise QBs on teams in win-now mode — all of which who are considerably younger than Wilson.

If the Broncos aren’t good enough to compete for a championship now, that window might close quickly. Their championship window isn’t as long as they might think.

Loser: Denver’s long-term plan

Quarterbacks are playing better and longer than ever before, but Wilson is 33 and his style of play specifically doesn’t bode well for aging gracefully. So much of his success, unlike an undersized QB like Drew Brees, relies on his mobility and deep-ball arm strength. When those talents fade, how does Wilson win?

Consider that teams don’t trade franchise QBs. Seattle saw him every day and was still willing to part ways with him. Wilson, rightfully so, will be on washed watch but if he delivers one championship for the franchise like Manning did, nobody will care about not being able to replenish via the draft.

Winners: Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett

Seattle can now use the Broncos' No. 9 overall pick to select a quarterback in the draft. Liberty's Malik Willis or Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett would give Seattle a new face of the franchise. Whether real or perceived, the fact Seattle could be a player for a QB at No. 9 will drive up the draft stock of both QBs. No disrespect to Geno Smith or Drew Lock, but if I was a betting man, I’d bet Malik Willis is the Week 1 starter in Seattle.

Loser: The Washington Commanders

The Seahawks turned down a trade offer from the Commanders that included three first-round picks! Washington wasn't even being subtle. General manager Martin Mayhew said he was “canvassing” the league for a starting QB and, on Wednesday, reportedly landed quarterback Carson Wentz from the Indianapolis Colts.

Even with that reported deal in place, the drop-off after Rodgers and Wilson was always going to be steep -- and that could spell trouble for Washington.

Winner: Prospective Broncos Buyers

The Broncos are up for sale and this deal isn’t a bad thing for a future owner. You don’t expect teams being sold to spend money, you expect them to clean up the books and remove any liabilities. But owning a football team is less about return on investment and more about return on fun. The Broncos being relevant and having hope makes the franchise a more enticing purchase.

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

This trade, in a way, is a huge sign of respect to the Rams. The Broncos are essentially saying forget about draft picks, we need a star QB starter kit and we’re in business. The Seahawks are saying the Rams just won and are light years ahead, we need to tear it all down. Both premises might be faulty.

Last year, the Broncos were 7-10 and play in a tough division. The Rams were 10-6 when they decided to go all-in for QB Matthew Stafford. The Broncos are not just a superstar QB away because the AFC West is full of star QBs.

The Seahawks were 7-10 last year but a season when your QB was hurt is a deceiving sample. In the three seasons previous to last, they were 12-4, 11-5, 10-6 and made the playoffs in each of those seasons. They also won the division in 2020. Before last season, the last time they had a losing record was 2011.

Even after the trade I think Denver and Seattle are probably closer in the standings than we might think but both collectively a few paces behind the defending champs.