Week 1 NFL spreads and storylines: Which QB makes biggest impact with new team?

The 2023 NFL regular season got underway Thursday with Dan Campbell and his upstart Detroit Lions upsetting Andy Reid’s defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and that was just the tip of the iceberg.

Week 1 of the regular season features eight divisional matchups, including two in prime time. The Cowboys and Giants meet in the Sunday nighter and the week is capped off by Aaron Rodgers making his New York Jets debut against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East Monday Night Football showdown.

Two notable NFL betting trends over the past few years have been the prolificacy of underdogs covering and unders hitting, and that’s exactly what we saw in Thursday’s season opener as the Lions covered as +4.0 underdogs and the 41 total points scored fell shy of the pre-game 52.5 total.

Will the dogs keep barking when action resumes Sunday?

SPREADS & TOTALS

- JAX (-4.5) at IND (+4.5) | O/U: 46.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- TB (+5.5) at MIN (-5.5) | O/U: 45.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- CIN (-2.0) at CLE (+2.0) | O/U: 47.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- CAR (+3.0) at ATL (-3.0) | O/U: 42.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- TEN (+3.0) at NO (-3.0) | O/U: 42.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- SF (-2.5) at PIT (+2.5) | O/U: 41.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- ARI (+6.0) at WAS (-6.0) | O/U: 39.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- HOU (+9.5) at BAL (-9.5) | O/U: 43.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- GB (+1.5) at CHI (-1.5) | O/U: 41.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- LV (+3.5) at DEN (-3.5) | O/U: 43.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- MIA (+3.0) at LAC (-3.0) | O/U: 51.0 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- PHI (-4.0) at NE (+4.0) | O/U: 45.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- LAR (-5.0) at SEA (+5.0) | O/U: 46.0 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- DAL (-3.5) at NYG (+3.5) | O/U: 45.5 (8:05 p.m. ET)
- BUF (-2.5) at NYJ (+2.5) | O/U: 45.5 (8:15 p.m. ET *Monday)

If you’re a fan of opening week trends, keep in mind the Colts have not won a Week 1 game since 2013 back in Andrew Luck’s second season. Indianapolis is hoping Anthony Richardson can develop into the franchise’s first Pro Bowl quarterback since Luck’s final season in 2018. This marks the sixth consecutive season in which the Colts have gone with a new starter in Week 1 — Richardson succeeds Matt Ryan (2022), Carson Wentz (2021), Philip Rivers (2020), Jacoby Brissett (2019) and Luck (2018).

The Ravens are the only team favoured by more than a converted touchdown this week as they face the Houston Texans and No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud in his first NFL start.

Chiefs-Lions had the highest total of the week at 52.5 and the only remaining game with a total exceeding 50 points is Chargers-Dolphins. These teams met once last year in Week 14. L.A. won 23-17 and held Tua Tagovailoa to just 10 total completions that game.

The most popular against the spread (ATS) plays this week are the Jaguars (71 per cent of public betting them to cover), Washington (70 per cent) and Philadelphia (69 per cent).

PROP WATCH: CAN THE COOK BROTHERS BOTH GET COOKING?

There’s no shortage of intrigue around the anticipated Bills-Jets MNF showdown and one fun subplot is brothers Dalvin Cook (of the Jets) and James Cook (of the Bills) playing each other.

Both running backs happen to have similar rushing total props entering the weekend. In fact, as of Friday evening, the siblings had identical rushing yard totals set at 43.5 yards at Bet365.

Dalvin’s anytime touchdown prop is +160 at Bet365, while James’s is +175, and that means a parlay would net you a +600 return if each Cook brother gets into the end zone Monday.

WEEK 1 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW

Which QB will have biggest impact in debut with new team? A whopping 14 clubs have a different starting quarterback than they did in Week 1 one year ago, including three of the top four picks from April’s draft — No. 1 Bryce Young with Carolina, No. 2 C.J. Stroud with Houston and No. 4 Anthony Richardson with Indianapolis — plus those like Brock Purdy, Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett who took over behind centre on their respective teams midway through their rookie seasons in 2022 due to various circumstances.

There are also a handful of veteran arms ranging from former MVPs, No. 1 overall picks and Pro Bowlers debuting on their new teams. Aaron Rodgers is in the spotlight with the Jets, Derek Carr with the Saints, Baker Mayfield takes over for Tom Brady with the Bucs, and Jimmy Garoppolo is now leading the way for the Raiders.

The Jordan Love era in Green Bay is finally officially underway as the 2020 first-round selection of the Packers takes over for Rodgers, while Sam Howell is the starter in Washington. Howell, a fifth-round pick in 2022, backed up Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke last season and now gets to work with the team’s new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who joins the Commanders fresh off his second Super Bowl win as Kansas City’s OC. Also, journeyman Josh Dobbs is expected to get the unenviable task of starting for the lowly Cardinals while Kyler Murray is on the Physically Unable to Perform List. Dobbs spent 2022 as a backup in Tennessee going 0-2 in his two starts.

How different will Ravens offence look under new OC? One QB returning to his same team, despite some drama earlier in the year, is Lamar Jackson whose contract dispute with the Ravens is in the rear-view mirror. Baltimore had been running a run-heavy offence under former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, but now that the team has replaced him with Todd Monken fresh off three seasons and back-to-back national titles with college powerhouse Georgia we could see Jackson rely less on his feet and more on his arm. The team drafted Zay Flowers with the 22nd-overall pick and signed Odell Beckham Jr., and Nelson Agholor to help revamp the passing attack.

Can Ridley go from ‘0’ to hero? Calvin Ridley is one of 15 players across the league taking advantage of one of the NFL’s subtle rule changes this off-season allowing any player (excluding offensive and defensive linemen) to wear the No. 0. Ridley will do so when he makes his anticipated debut with the Jaguars against the AFC South rival Colts. Ridley, selected 26th overall by the Falcons in 2018, was traded from Atlanta to Jacksonville last November whilst he was serving a season-long suspension for gambling on games. This came after Ridley missed the majority of the 2021 campaign when he stepped away from football citing mental health reasons.

Ridley, who hasn’t suited up for a regular-season game in 686 days, had a breakout season in 2020 when he had 1,374 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns. Ridley was catching passes from Matt Ryan in Atlanta but is now among the top targets of Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2021 draft who’s expected to take another step forward in his development in his third season. Ridley will be competing for targets with WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne Jr.

(Betting lines and totals above via Covers as of Friday unless otherwise listed and subject to change)