Week 10 NFL spreads and storylines: Is Patriots' Bill Belichick really on hot seat?

As much as it may hurt to say it, think it and feel it, the fact is we’re already officially into the second half of the NFL’s 2023 regular season.

Week 10 began with the Chicago Bears in a win-win scenario against the Carolina Panthers. Chicago holds Carolina’s first-round pick in the 2024 draft so, win or lose, the Bears were going to increase their odds of landing the first-overall pick

The Bears snapped a losing streak, simultaneously extending Carolina’s losing streak as the Panthers fell to a league-worst 1-8. The score in that one was 16-13, which meant the under hit.

Similar to a trend we saw last season, if a prospective NFL bettor hypothetically did nothing other than place a wager on every single under through the first nine weeks, they’d be winning at a rate of 61.5 per cent with 38.5 per cent of game finishing over their listed total.

Here are some notable against the spread (ATS) betting trends from the first half of the regular season, via Covers:

ATS record (ATS cover percentage):
Home Teams: 66-62-8 (51.6%)
Road Teams: 62-66-8 (48.4%)
Favourites: 67-61-8 (52.3%)
Underdogs:  61-67-8 (47.7%)
Home Favourites: 41-36-4 (53.2%)
Road Favourites: 26-25-4 (51.0%)
Home Underdogs: 25-26-4 (49.0%)
Road Underdogs: 36-41-4 (46.75%)

Will the trends above continue into Week 10?

Three of the most exciting teams are not in action (Kansas City, Philadelphia and Miami are on bye this week … the Rams are also not playing) but fans have a beautifully balanced Sunday slate to look forward to, followed by a Broncos-Bills Monday-nighter to cap off the week.

SPREADS & TOTALS

- IND (-1.5) at NE (+1.5) | O/U: 43.5 (9:30 a.m. ET in Frankfurt, Germany)
- HOU (+6.5) at CIN (-6.5) | O/U: 47.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- NO (-3.0) at MIN (+3.0) | O/U: 40.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- GB (+3.0) at PIT (-3.0) | O/U: 38.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- TEN (+1.5) at TB (-1.5) | O/U: 38.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- SF (-3.0) at JAX (+3.0) | O/U: 45.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- CLE (+6.5) at BAL (-6.5) | O/U: 38.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- ATL (-1.5) at ARI (+1.5) | O/U: 43.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
- DET (-3.0) at LAC (+3.0) | O/U: 48.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
- NYG (+17.5) at DAL (-17.5) | O/U: 39.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- WAS (+5.5) at SEA (-5.5) | O/U: 44.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- NYJ (-1.0) at LV (+1.0) | O/U: 36.5 (8:20 p.m. ET)
- DEN (+7.0) at BUF (-7.0) | O/U: 46.5 (8:15 p.m. ET, Monday)

PROP WATCH: WILL HENRY REACH 9,000-YARD MILESTONE?

Tennessee running back Derrick Henry is 64 rushing yards away from reaching 9,000 for his career and won’t you just look at his listed rushing total this week as his Titans hit the road to face the Bucs.

Derrick Henry rushing yards: Over 64.5 (-110) | Under 64.5 (-110)
Derrick Henry rushing attempts: Over 16.5 (-120) | Under 16.5 (-110)
Anytime touchdown: +120 | Multiple touchdowns: +700

Henry has registered more than 64 rushing yards in three consecutive games and in five of eight overall.

WEEK 10 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW

With the team in Germany, how hot is Belichick’s seat? Washington’s Ron Rivera, Tampa’s Todd Bowles and Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur are on the short list of coaches whose jobs are by no means secure, especially if their teams don’t start winning in the second half of the season. That trio isn’t alone, though. The NFL’s final international game of the season is Colts-Patriots, and if New England loses a sixth game in its past seven outings and falls to 2-8 this week, it’s possible legendary head coach Bill Belichick could end up having an open-ended European vacation instead of heading back to the U.S. to prepare for a home game against the Giants in Week 12. That because Belichick appears to legitimately be on the hot seat as the team meanders in the post-Brady era.

“I’m going to control what I can control and get ready for the Colts,” Belichick told reporters, via The Associated Press, when asked this week about his job security. “I do the same thing I always do. I try to do the best I can to help our team every week.”

How will 49ers, Jaguars perform after needed bye week? The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for a 49ers team that has lost three in a row after starting the season 5-0. Deebo Samuel is set to return to the field, although Trent Williams’ status is less certain. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has won five straight and could hold the same record as the defending champions if it falls to San Fran. The Jags will have to account for one heck of a pass rush that’ll see Chase Young make his 49ers debut following that trade deadline deal with Washington. The Jacksonville defence allows the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (79.3) going up against rushing yards leader Christian McCaffrey and a 49ers team that averages 133.5 yards per game on the ground.

Can the Dobbs magic continue? Last week, mere days after being acquired in a trade from Arizona, Josh Dobbs became the first player in NFL history to record three total touchdowns in back-to-back games while playing for two different teams. Dobbs has been one of the top feel-good stories of the 2023 season, but will his success continue this week with Minnesota home underdogs against New Orleans? The Vikings are 5-4 despite being ravaged by injuries. Justin Jefferson is listed as questionable. The star WR hasn’t played in more than a month but he would provide Dobbs with quite the No. 1 target if his hamstring gets the green light. The Saints have won two in a row while posting at least 24 points in four of their past five games.

Stroud facing toughest challenge to date: Standout rookie C.J. Stroud has been the most impressive rookie QB this season and is coming off one of the best individual performances of 2023, regardless of experience. The Texans will have their backs against the wall this week against the Bengals. Stroud debuted in Week 1 on the road in Baltimore yet, circumstantially, this week’s game in Cincinnati might be even tougher.

Stroud will be without his top target, Nico Collins, who’s nursing a calf injury. Collins is one of eight players already ruled out for the Texans. It could be a game of backups stepping up to make big plays for both teams. Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase is questionable with a back injury and Tee Higgins is out, but even without those weapons, Joe Burrow and the rest of the team are rounding into form.

What can Murray do in his season debut with the Cardinals? Arizona is tied with Carolina at the bottom of the standings, and with the playoffs entirely unrealistic at this point, a key part of the second half of the regular season for Arizona will be how Kyler Murray performs and what it means for the team moving forward. Murray is set to make his season debut after a knee injury ended his 2022 season early. This will be Murray’s first start under head coach Jonathan Gannon. The 2019 first-overall pick signed a contract extension that can be worth up to $230.5 million over five years. His play can either increase or decrease his off-season trade value, or if he gets back into Pro Bowl form like in 2020 and 2021, then team management can determine whether they still view Murray as their franchise QB.

(Season betting trends and weekly odds via Covers; player prop odds via Bet365 as of Saturday and subject to change)