Week 16 NFL spreads and storylines: Can 49ers' Purdy clinch MVP on Christmas?

If Stephen Strange were to set up the remainder of the NFL schedule he’d point out that “we’re in the end game now.” With only three weeks left in the regular season, a handful of teams control their own destiny while others have no more wiggle room and will require some luck as the playoffs approach.

Week 16 began with the NFC playoff race in the spotlight. The Los Angeles Rams defeated the New Orleans Saints on Thursday to move above .500 for the first time since starting the regular season 1-0. 

Matt Stafford and the Rams have now won five of six and in their lone loss during this streak they went toe-to-toe with the Baltimore Ravens in an exciting, high-scoring contest. The Saints, meanwhile, couldn't manage to pull ahead of the Buccaneers in the lowly NFC South. The fact they play the Bucs and Falcons over their final two games means they have not yet been eliminated from post-season contention.

There are only two games this week – Commanders at Jets and Cardinals at Bears – that have zero playoff implications, though those matchups will affect the draft order.

Although Sunday’s slate is lighter than usual with just 10 games, Week 16 concludes with an anticipated Christmas Day triple-header featuring the defending champions and three teams with double-digit wins.

SPREADS & TOTALS
- IND (+2.5) at ATL (-2.5) | O/U: 44.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- SEA (-3.0) at TEN (+3.0) | O/U: 41.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- DET (-3.0) at MIN (+3.0) | O/U: 47.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- WAS (+3.0) at NYJ (-3.0) | O/U: 36.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- GB (-4.5) at CAR (+4.5) | O/U: 37.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- CLE (-2.5) at HOU (+2.5) | O/U: 40.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- JAX (+2.5) at TB (-2.5) | O/U: 41.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
- ARI (+4.5) at CHI (-4.5) | O/U: 43.0 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- DAL (+1.5) at MIA (-1.5) | O/U: 50.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- NE (+6.5) at DEN (-6.5) | O/U: 34.5 (8:20 p.m. ET)
- LV (+10.0) at KC (-10.0) | O/U: 40.5 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)
- NYG (+13.5) at PHI (-13.5) | O/U: 43.0 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)
- BAL (+5.5) at SF (-5.5) | O/U: 46.5 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)

The Rams were 4.0-point favourites against New Orleans and improved to 9-5-1 against the spread (ATS) thanks to their 30-22 win. Baltimore, Miami, Dallas, Detroit, Indianapolis and Tampa Bay are each 9-5 ATS. New Orleans (4-9-1 ATS), Atlanta (4-10 ATS), Carolina (3-9-2 ATS) and New England (3-10-1 ATS) have been the worst teams for bettors this season.

The Colts have covered in five of their past six games and have been the best overs team this season at 10-4. At the other end of the totals spectrum, the Chargers, Bills, Giants Steelers, Vikings Raiders, Saints and Panthers were all 4-10 on overs this season heading into Week 16.

Dallas at Miami is the lone game this week with a total exceeding 50 points. The Dolphins rank first in the NFL with 31.5 points scored per game and the Cowboys are second with 30.8 points per game.

WEEK 16 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW

IS LOSER OF DALLAS-MIAMI A FULL-ON FRAUD?

Both Dallas and Miami enter Week 16 as top-six Super Bowl contenders according to the betting odds, yet if you break down each team’s record you find some deception. Neither of these teams has done well this season against teams with winning records. All of Miami’s wins have been against teams at or below .500 and Dallas is similar. The Cowboys regularly run the score up on lesser opponents but besides beating the Eagles two weeks ago they are short on quality wins this season. The Dolphins are 6-1 at home; the Cowboys are 3-4 on the road.

BACKUPS IN SPOTLIGHT FOR KEY GAME

Sunday’s contest between the 8-6 Browns and 8-6 Texans will go a long way towards determining which teams will make the playoffs in the ultra-competitive AFC.

Cleveland has adapted well to Joe Flacco taking over behind centre and Case Keenum helped the Texans pull off a gutsy overtime win over the Titans to keep their division title hopes alive. C.J. Stroud did not join his team for practice this week as he recovers from a concussion. Keenum could have Nico Collins at his disposal, which he did not last week with the receiver nursing a calf injury.

FLORIDA TEAMS HEADING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

The month of December has not been kind to the Jacksonville Jaguars. A mere three weeks ago during the final days of November, the Jags were 8-3 and in complete control of the AFC South, while Tampa Bay fell to third place in the NFC South after losing their sixth in seven tries to fall to 4-7. At that time, this Week 16 contest between two of the league’s three Florida-based teams seemed like it would be a spot for the Jaguars to perhaps clinch a home playoff game or pad their stats. But after three consecutive losses, Jacksonville is barely hanging on to the division lead and is by no means guaranteed a spot in the post-season.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is one of only four teams riding a win streak of or more three games and the Bucs control their own destiny in the NFC South despite only being 7-7.

Baker Mayfield is coming off the best statistical game of his NFL career – a 381-yard, four-touchdown outing in a win over Green Bay where he finished with a perfect quarterback rating – while on the other sideline Trevor Lawrence is in concussion protocol and could miss the first game of his NFL career if not cleared medically. C.J. Beathard would start if Lawrence is unable.

FALCONS DONE WITH RIDDER

Atlanta really has no business being shown on those “In the Hunt” graphics after last week’s ugly 9-7 loss to the last-place Panthers, yet if the Falcons manage to beat the Colts on Sunday they’ll stay alive in the NFC South, even if temporarily. Falcons coach Arthur Smith, who could be one of multiple coaches in this division fired in the off-season, announced this week he was for the second time this season replacing Desmond Ridder with Taylor Heinicke as starting QB. This is Atlanta’s final home game before road contests at Chicago and New Orleans. Even if they luck into a playoff spot this season, Atlanta's top off-season priority will be finding a franchise quarterback.

The Falcons are hosting a Colts team that can still win its division and make the playoffs. Indianapolis could be getting back both running back Jonathan Taylor from a thumb injury and star receiver Michael Pittman Jr. was back at practice after sustaining a concussion in last week’s win over the Steelers.

CHRISTMAS TRIPLE-HEADER

A full day of NFL action is quite the gift for football fans and the back-to-back-to-back games on Dec. 25 featurs a pair of divisional matchups plus a game where the combined record of the two teams involved is 22-6.

The Chiefs can keep their chances at a bye alive if they beat the Raiders, the Eagles can do the same in the NFC if they top the Giants, and Week 16 is capped by a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII, which could realistically serve as a preview of Super Bowl LVIII, when the Ravens visit the 49ers.

MVP SHOWDOWN

Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson are currently the top two contenders for the league MVP award and their respective performances this week could go a long way towards solidifying those results. Purdy has the second-most passing yards behind Tua Tagolvailoa and boasts the league’s best TD:INT ratio at 29:7. Jackson, the 2019 MVP, is having a quality season throwing the ball and leads all quarterbacks with 741 rushing yards, while adding five touchdowns with his legs.

There’s some added pressure on Jackson’s shoulders now considering the Ravens lost yet another running back for the season after Keaton Mitchell sustained a gruesome knee injury last week against Jacksonville.

(Betting odds via Covers as of Friday and subject to change; betting records via TeamRankings)