Week 17 NFL Storylines & Playoff Picture: No. 1 seeds, division titles at stake

We’re in the thick of it now, folks. Only two weeks remain on the regular-season schedule yet 16 teams, half the league has yet to officially clinch a playoff berth or be eliminated.

Both No. 1 seeds and three division titles could be settled come Tuesday morning, but nothing is guaranteed.

Who’s in so far? The Bills, Chiefs and Bengals had already punched their tickets in the AFC. Baltimore and the L.A. Chargers each won by keeping their respective opponents out of the end zone and clinched. The Ravens still have a chance to leapfrog the Bengals for the AFC North title, while the Chargers ensured themselves a wild-card matchup. The Eagles, Vikings, 49ers and Cowboys were locked into the NFC post-season picture heading into last week’s action as that remains the case this week.

Who’s out? The Falcons and Browns joined the Rams, Colts, Cardinals, Broncos, Bears and Texans in the officially eliminated column.

The Cowboys kicked off Week 17 with a win over the Titans. Dallas is now 12-4, posting back-to-back dozen-win seasons for the first time since the franchise’s mid-1990s dynasty. One point of concern for the Cowboys as the playoffs approach is the fact Dak Prescott has thrown an interception in six consecutive weeks and multiple picks in three of the past four games. He had three turnovers against the Titans. Tennessee will be playing for a division title next week, so Thursday’s result ultimately didn’t impede their playoff chances.

The NFL hasn’t finalized its Week 18 schedule yet but it’d sure make sense to flex that Titans-Jags matchup into prime time would it not? It is, after all, essentially a bonus playoff game for football fans to enjoy.

But back to Week 17… The remaining slate features 14 games on New Year’s Day before the clear game of the week finishes things off Monday night.

Here’s what to look for during the penultimate week of the regular season:

If the playoffs started today, here’s what the seeding and matchups would look like in the AFC:

No. 1 Bills (12-3) on bye
No. 2 Chiefs (12-3) vs. No. 7 Dolphins (8-7)
No. 3 Bengals (11-4) vs. No. 6 Chargers (9-6)
No. 4 Jaguars (7-8) vs. No. 5 Ravens (10-5)

If the playoffs started today, here’s what the seeding and matchups would look like in the NFC:

No. 1 Eagles (13-2) on bye
No. 2 Vikings (12-3) vs. No. 7 Commanders (7-7-1)
No. 3 49ers (11-4) vs. No. 6 Giants (8-6-1)
No. 4 Buccaneers (7-8) vs. No. 5 Cowboys (11-4)

WEEK 16 STORYLINES AND CLINCHING SCENARIOS

(*Teams with an opportunity to clinch in italics.)

Cardinals (4-11) @ Falcons (5-10) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

Both teams have already been eliminated from post-season contention. Arizona could guarantee themselves a top-five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft with a loss. Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder will make his third consecutive starter. The rookie has yet to throw a touchdown or interception at the NFL level. It’s looking like the Cardinals will start David Blough at QB.

Bears (3-12) @ Lions (7-8) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

Detroit needs a win or a Washington loss to remain alive. A Lions loss plus a Commanders win would eliminate Dan Campbell’s group and put an end to a valiant late-season run after a 1-6 start. Detroit needed three fourth-quarter touchdowns to edge the Bears seven weeks ago.

Jaguars (7-8) @ Texans (2-12-1) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

Trevor Lawrence has been playing great in recent weeks and Jaguars coach Doug Pederson told reporters this week he won’t be resting players with the AFC South not yet decided (unless they’re hurt), so Lawrence will be looking for his first win over Houston. The 2021 first-overall pick is 0-3 with three TDs, five INTs (two of which were back in Week 5 earlier this year) in his young career against the Texans. Also, there’s an unlikely-but-possible chance the Jaguars can sneak into the post-season if they beat the Texans and lose to the Titans so a win in Houston is still important.

The last-place Texans will secure the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft with a loss.

Broncos (4-11) @ Chiefs (12-3) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

There are no immediate playoff implications in this one, although Kansas City is still in the hunt for a first-round bye. This will be Denver’s first game since the team fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett following a 51-14 loss to the Rams.

Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

Tua Tagovailoa is back in concussion protocol, which means Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod for Miami. The Dolphins also have Terron Armstead, Bradley Chubb and Alec Ingold on the injury report and listed as game-time decisions. It’s straightforward for each team: the Dolphins clinch a playoff spot with a win and a New York Jets loss and the Patriots are eliminated from contention with a loss.

Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

New York, just like last week, can clinch a playoff berth with a victory. It’s not a must-win situation since they can lose this week, win next week and still get in, but this is a prime opportunity to get it done and be in a position to rest key players in the regular-season finale if necessary.

Saints (6-9) @ Eagles (13-2) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

This could end up being a massive week for the Eagles if they manage to rebound from an exciting, high-scoring loss to the Cowboys. A win Sunday would not only clinch a first-round bye, it would increase the odds of the franchise also securing a top-10 pick in next year’s draft since they own the Saints’ 2023 first-round selection. Philly would’ve officially clinched the division had Dallas lost on Thursday, so there is still some work to be done. The Eagles will clinch the division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win, or a tie coupled with a Vikings loss. With Jalen Hurts doubtful, it looks like Gardner Minshew will get a second consecutive start.

The Saints can potentially stay mathematically alive with a win. New Orleans will be eliminated if they lose, or if the Bucs beat the Panthers.

Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (7-8) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

It’s simple for Tampa Bay: win and you’re in – in with an NFC South title and a home playoff date to boot despite an unimpressive record. Carolina can’t clinch the division with a win this week, but a second win over Tom Brady and the Bucs this season would put them in a position where they’d be able to control their own destiny in Week 18. Sam Darnold has done an admirable job playing efficient, mistake-free football since Week 12. He has one touchdown pass in each of his four starts, adding two rushing TDs, and most importantly hasn’t turned the ball over. Brady has never finished below .500 in his NFL career but would for the first time with another loss to the Panthers.

Browns (6-9) @ Commanders (7-7-1) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT

Carson Wentz replaced Taylor Heinicke during last week’s loss to the 49ers, went 12 for 16 for 123 yards with a TD pass to Curtis Samuel and Ron Rivera is turning back to Wentz this week. Wentz, 2-4 this season, hasn’t started since Week 6. Washington, who’s without running back Antonio Gibson, is winless in the past three weeks but that Week 14 tie against the Giants is what’s currently keeping them ahead of Seattle, Detroit and Green Bay in the standings. Washington’s lone chance to clinch a playoff spot this week is with a win plus losses from all of the Seahawks, Lions and Packers. Cleveland’s 2023 first-round pick belongs to Houston, so Texans management will be cheering for a Washington victory.

Jets (7-8) @ Seahawks (7-8) | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT

The Jets are one of four 7-8 teams vying for the final AFC wild-card spot but find themselves in must-win mode. New York can still make the playoffs by winning out and getting a bit of luck. Mike White will get the start. Even though he’s 1-2 as a starter the Jets have played better with him behind centre than they do when Zach Wilson is out there. The only way the Seahawks can be eliminated this week is a loss coupled with a Washington win, but a win does not secure them a spot.

49ers (11-4) @ Raiders (6-9) | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT

The big news out of Raiders camp this week was head coach Josh McDaniels announcing Derek Carr will be benched in favour of Jarrett Stidham. It is entirely possible Carr has played his final snap with the team that drafted him 36th overall in 2014. Las Vegas is technically still in the playoff hunt because if they won their final two games and there was a logjam of 8-9 teams tied for the final AFC wild-card spot it’s possible they could get in on tiebreakers, depending on which teams they were tied with. They essentially need a miracle to qualify and a loss to the heavily favoured Niners would represent the proverbial final nail in the coffin. If the 49ers lose, their slim chances at the No. 1 NFC seed would be dashed.

Vikings (12-3) @ Packers (7-8) | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT

A whopping 11 of Minnesota’s 12 victories this season have been one-score games. The lone win that wasn’t happened in opening week when they downed the Packers 23-7. Green Bay has won three in a row and are hanging on by a thread. A win keeps them alive heading into Week 18, while a loss coupled with a Detroit or Washington win would end their chances. The Packers haven’t missed the playoffs since Matt LaFleur was named head coach in 2019.

Rams (5-10) @ Chargers (9-6) | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT

The Rams and Chargers have alternated wins and losses in the battle of L.A., dating back 20 years. OK, they don’t play each other often so that streak is actually only five games but if it continues it’ll be the Chargers’ turn to win. The Chargers clinched a wild-card spot last week and have a chance to leapfrog the Ravens for fifth place in the AFC, which would set up a first-round matchup against the AFC South winner.

Steelers (7-8) @ Ravens (10-5) | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT

Pittsburgh’s playoff chances fall to zero with a loss coupled with a Jets or Patriots win. Their slim chances remain intact if they beat Baltimore. The Ravens have clinched a playoff spot and can still leapfrog the Bengals for a division title if they win out.

Bills (12-3) @ Bengals (11-4) | Monday 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT

Buffalo gave themselves an early Christmas present by beating the Bears on Dec. 24 and clinching the AFC East for a third consecutive season under Sean McDermott. Now they’ve got the chance to clinch first place and a bye in the wild-card round. A Bills win combined with a Chiefs loss and Buffalo locks up the No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Cincinnati can lock up the NFC North with a win and Ravens loss.

The 23 combined wins is the most combined wins in a Monday Night Football matchup since a 49ers-Broncos matchup in 1997.