Week 18 NFL Takeaways: Bills steal AFC East as playoff picture revealed

In the span of about eight hours, the Buffalo Bills went from sitting outside the playoff picture to standing atop the AFC East, division champs for the fourth straight year. They may have taken the long way to get there, but Josh Allen & Co. came out on top following a season of struggles and one big sprint to the playoffs’ second seed. 

They had a little bit of help, of course, from their frenemies in Jacksonville, whose collapse down the stretch and loss to the Titans earlier on Sunday saw the Bills clinch a playoff berth before they hit the field in Miami. 

Sunday night’s 21-14 season-finale victory saw Allen at his best — 30 for 38, 259 yards and two touchdowns — and his worst (two interceptions and some questionable decisions under duress that could’ve proven costly). The win was sealed by an interception from safety Taylor Rapp, snagging the division from the grasp of the Dolphins and dropping Miami down from the AFC’s second seed to its sixth. 

That’s five straight wins now for Buffalo, making the Bills a dangerous opponent come wild card weekend. A loss for the Bills would’ve set them up for a rematch against Miami next weekend. Instead, the win lands Buffalo a date with the visiting Steelers while the Dolphins head north to Arrowhead to see a well-rested Chiefs team that was afforded the luxury of sitting several stars on Sunday. 

Sunday night’s finale was a fitting end to what’s been a dramatic regular season in the NFL filled with twists and turns and bumps and bruises — and no, we’re not just talking about life in Buffalo these past four months. 

With the final week of the 2023 campaign in the books, here’s our collection of takeaways… but first, a glimpse of what’s to come:

The stage is set. Here’s what the 2023-24 NFL playoff picture looks like:

AFC

No. 1 seed: Baltimore Ravens (bye)

No. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers

No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs vs. No. 6 Miami Dolphins

No. 4 Houston Texans vs. No. 5 Cleveland Browns

NFC

No. 1 seed: San Francisco 49ers (bye)

No. 2 Dallas Cowboys vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers

No. 3 Detroit Lions vs. No. 6 Los Angeles Rams

No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles

Jaguars’ collapse paves way for Texans, Steelers, Bills

Sitting atop the AFC South with an 8-3 record to open December, Jacksonville’s path to the post-season was clear. Six weeks later, the Jaguars find themselves outside the playoff picture following a 28-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans — the very division foe Trevor Lawrence & Co. defeated exactly one year ago to complete their sprint into the post-season. 

So, what happened? The Jaguars went 1-5 down the stretch, a run that included three straight losses to AFC North clubs, to lose ground in the playoff race. Still, they remained in control of their playoff fate entering Week 18, even after the Texans clinched their playoff spot Saturday night and Pittsburgh put themselves in playoff position with their own win over the Ravens a few hours later. 

A win over Tennessee Sunday afternoon would’ve seen Jacksonville lock down the division. Instead, their loss saw them fall out of the playoffs entirely, with Houston claiming the AFC South and Pittsburgh and Buffalo clinching their post-season berths. 

While the Jaguars got in their own way plenty, particularly late in the game when Lawrence overthrew a wide-open Calvin Ridley in a play that almost certainly would’ve resulted in a score and an opportunity to tie things up at 28 apiece, the Titans didn’t give up much. Tennessee’s defence held their division foe scoreless on two late-game chances and intercepted Lawrence twice while star running back Derrick Henry put on a show (19 carries for 153 yards and a touchdown) in what was likely his final game with the franchise.

Bengals’ win over Browns clinches historic season for AFC North

Thanks to the Steelers’ win over the Ravens Saturday night and the Jaguars’ loss to the Titans on Sunday afternoon, this year’s post-season picture includes three entries from the AFC North.

That’s pretty impressive, but the most historic moment for the division came courtesy of the lone AFC North club not in the playoffs. The Bengals’ 31-14 win over the Browns on Sunday (Cleveland’s lineup didn’t include a handful of starters, including QB Joe Flacco) brought Cincinnati’s season record to 9-8, which means all four teams in the AFC North finished the season above .500. That hasn’t happened since 1935.

Mayfield’s million-dollar win leads Buccaneers atop NFC South

Someone had to win the NFC South, and Baker Mayfield made it clear Sunday afternoon that it was going to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, their 9-0 win over the last-place Carolina Panthers never really in doubt thanks to a shutdown performance on defence. (Here’s a scary thought: We almost had two NFC South clubs clinch playoff spots… but Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers did us all a solid and took the seventh seed instead. Phew!)

This one held a little extra significance for Baker Mayfield — and not just because the win came against his old club, which released him last year.

Mayfield has found a great fit in Tampa Bay, his fourth team in the last three years, and his division-clinching performance is now rewarded with a million-dollar incentive unlocked. 

Mayfield wasn’t the only one to cash in on a bonus in Week 18. Chiefs edge rusher Chris Jones, who restructured his deal after holding out to start the season, hit double-digit sacks on the season against the Chargers and earned himself an extra $1.25 million.

CeeDee Lamb’s hot streak continues

The Dallas Cowboys’ offence is clicking at the best time, and they’ve got the NFC East’s top seed to show for it following their Week 18 win over the Commanders. 

This club is looking dangerous, and a lot of that is thanks to the otherworldly play of CeeDee Lamb. The star wide receiver had a two-touchdown outing against Washington, his second straight 13-catch effort after his incredible 227-yard game last week against Detroit. He now has at least one touchdown in nine straight matchups, including four scores in his last three games. 

Are the Eagles in trouble?

After starting the season 10-1, Philadelphia has been in freefall. Since defeating Buffalo in overtime at the end of November, the Eagles have won just a single game to finish the campaign 11-6. Losses to the 49ers, Cowboys, and Seahawks felt concerning, sure, but you’re always going to give the benefit of the doubt to a club that went all the way to the Super Bowl one year ago. But it’s their final three games that are really sowing the seeds of doubt in Philly ahead of the post-season: Two losses to the Giants and one to the Cardinals. Sunday’s dismal outing against New York, which saw head coach Nick Sirianni pull his starters midway through the game, spells more trouble to come. Both safety Sydney Brown and star receiver A.J. Brown suffered apparent knee injuries. 

Did we just witness the end of an era in New England?

It wasn’t the most eventful game — take two of the worst offences in the league and add non-stop snow squalls, and… you get the picture: Pretty? Yes, if you love a snow globe game. But also, pretty boring.

But Sunday afternoon’s matchup between AFC East rivals New York and New England wasn’t really about the football, considering both sides have long been ruled out. It’s about what comes next, particularly with regards to the Patriots. Is this the end for Bill Belichick? Rumours have been swirling all season that the team will be parting ways with its legendary coach, but neither he nor the organization has confirmed anything. And his post-game press conference was… as expected.

If this is the end of the Belichick-Patriots partnership, it’s been a truly historic run: A 265-119 regular-season record over 24 years — 301 career wins including playoffs, which is third most in NFL history — and 19 straight seasons with a winning record. He’s got more playoff wins (31), Super Bowls (six), and Super Bowl appearances (nine) than any coach in league history.

And if it’s not? The Patriots will be one of the most intriguing teams at the draft, with B.B. poised to chase history at home with a new QB. 

Dan Campbell plays to win, but did the Lions pay the price?

Dan Campbell plays to win. That much was clear last week against Dallas, and it was again obvious Sunday against Minnesota when the gutsy bench boss played his starters despite the Lions having already securing the NFC North. 

Campbell took a gamble that both the Eagles and Cowboys would lose on Sunday — a loss for both and a win for Detroit would’ve seen the Lions step up into the No. 2 seed in the NFC — and while he was right about one of them, his decision to play his starters in Week 18 might come back to haunt him. The Lions lost breakout tight end Sam LaPorta to a knee injury, and while it’s unclear how serious it is just yet it will almost certainly impact Jared Goff’s offence Sunday when a very familiar foe comes to town.

Black Monday starts early with Smith firing

At exactly 12:02 am ET, the Atlanta Falcons announced they’ve parted ways with head coach Arthur Smith. He’s the fourth coach fired this season. His final game with the Falcons wasn’t pretty, nor was his game-ending handshake with Saints coach Dennis Allen. Smith was visibly angry after Allen’s offence ran in a touchdown after taking victory formation — a move initially thought of as Allen’s play-call, and later revealed by the coach and his backup quarterback, Jameis Winston, that it was the players who defied the formation and called their own play.