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Week 4 NFL fantasy advice: Which Bears can you trust to start?

It was an interesting Week 3 across the NFL, and it came with plenty of the good (starting both Justin Herbert and Mike Williams) and the bad (starting Ty’Son Williams and benching Kareem Hunt). It’s also that time of year where you start to look at your roster with quizzical looks, trying to decipher what is an outlier, and what is simply the new norm.

For example, will Ben Roethlisberger throw 58 passes every single week at age 39? Not if the Steelers want to actually win football games. Will Mike Gesicki have another 10-catch game the rest of the season down in Miami? It’s certainly possible, which means his ceiling can be very high, but boy is that floor low. Will Kyle Shanahan’s offence provide just enough value to any 49ers RB to keep us obsessing over who to start for the rest of the year? The answer here seems to be, unfortunately, yes.

Injury absences have also pushed others into new roles early on, and we’ll have to make judgement calls there too – Jacoby Brissett in Tua Tagovailoa’s absence is a big one, and it also affects the fantasy value of Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle, Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, and Myles Gaskin, all of whom are largely rostered in most leagues. Look no further than the Bengals’ 24-21 win over the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. Tyler Boyd gobbled up nine of 11 targets for 118 yards in Tee Higgins’ absence. Will this necessarily continue once Higgins is back? Hard to tell, but enjoy it while you can.

Our weekly picks have been made with 0.5 PPR leagues in mind, with standard rosters of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and one RB/WR/TE FLEX spot.

QUARTERBACKS

QB Start – Sam Darnold, Panthers (@ Cowboys)
The turnaround Darnold has made since being freed from the Adam Gase-led Jets is truly remarkable. He looks confident and empowered, and even when the throws aren’t there, he provides more than enough value with his legs. Most importantly, Darnold has avoided major turnovers, with only one interception and one fumble thus far on the (relatively young) season. Sure, he’s played some soft defences, but he now has a date with a Dallas secondary that has been struggling so far this year, especially against mobile quarterbacks. This game may not necessarily be a win for the Panthers, given some injuries to their defensive players and the high-powered Cowboys offence, but Darnold should be able to post some pretty numbers himself.

QB Start – Taylor Heinicke, WFT (@ Falcons)
I think it’s safe to say that, barring the absolute worst options every week, virtually any quarterback can be started against the terrible Falcons defence. That doesn’t exactly seem like a ringing endorsement of Heinicke, and he did struggle with the passing game at times against a strong Bills defence, but Heinicke’s value is buoyed by his legs. He ran eight times for 21 yards and a touchdown, and the matchup with Atlanta presents another similar opportunity.

Other starter to consider: Kirk Cousins, Vikings (vs. Browns)

QB Sit – Jared Goff, Lions (@ Bears)
I, along with many others, raised their eyebrows after a Week 1 performance that saw Goff near the 30-point fantasy mark, but he has unfortunately cooled off, combining for less than that over the last two weeks. A road matchup against the Bears defence, a unit he has struggled against dating back to his days in Los Angeles, doesn’t make it any easier. He’s best left on your bench or the waiver wire this week.

QB Sit – Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos (vs. Ravens)
All things considered, you have to be very pleased with what Bridgewater has brought to Denver so far – not a lot of hair-raising plays, certainly, but steady production that has trickled down all the way to a 3-0 Broncos record. However, this streaming option is best left on the bench this week as the Ravens come to town. They have had their injury problems, but still have a formidable group of defensive backs and can bully their way to the passer. More generous matchups are coming later in October for Bridgewater.

Note: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is best left on the bench this week, too, with Friday’s news that top wideouts AJ Brown and Julio Jones have both been ruled out.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WR Start – Jakobi Meyers, Patriots (vs. Buccaneers)
With James White potentially out for the season, the Patriots running game takes a huge hit. Meyers picked up the slack on the receiving side when White went down. Mac Jones peppered him with 14 targets, and while that was largely due to negative game-script on a day the Patriots trailed the Saints from beginning to end, Meyers has actually led the Patriots in targets every single week thus far. Now he gets a matchup with an injured Buccaneers secondary that is also giving up the most points per game to wide receivers, and another potentially negative game-script with Tom Brady out for blood at Foxboro. Start him with confidence.

WR Start – Deebo Samuel, 49ers (vs. Seahawks)
It’s admittedly tough to trust virtually any 49ers pass catcher on a consistent basis (yes, even George Kittle) because of the low volume pass offence being run out west. However, early results still favour Samuel, as he has averaged 10 targets a game this season. He clearly has the trust of both the coaching staff and Jimmy Garoppolo (at least for as long as he is still the starter), so he will be a significant part of the game plan – as long as he is fully healthy.

Other starter to consider: Brandin Cooks, Texans (@ Bills)

WR Sit – Allen Robinson, Bears (vs. Lions)
This is a tough one because we all know what kind of production Robinson has put up with all sorts of quarterbacks dating back to his days with Blake Bortles and the Jaguars. Unfortunately, an early season match with Andy Dalton and now the uncertainly of Justin Fields still figuring things out at the NFL level has not produced very good fantasy results. Until we see Fields used more effectively by the coaching staff, it’s hard to trust any pass catcher in that offence.

WR Sit – Will Fuller/DeVante Parker (vs. Colts)
Another sit based on quarterback play. It’s simply too volatile to trust either of these options, even against the average Colts defence. Jacoby Brissett has averaged 4.3 yards per attempt, which unfortunately points more towards Jaylen Waddle and dump-offs to the running backs more than it does anyone else at this point.

RUNNING BACKS

RB Start – David Montgomery, Bears (vs. Lions)
Perhaps the only player on this entire offence who is startable on a week-to-week basis, Montgomery definitely had a disappointing stat line against the Browns last week (10 carries for 34 yards, and two catches for 21 yards). I can own that. However, as my mother said, ‘Always look for a silver lining,’ and this week’s is that he was the only back to touch the football in the loss against the Browns, and now gets a date with a Lions defence that is giving up the 10th-most points to running backs.

RB Start – Zack Moss, Bills (vs. Texans)
I’ll acknowledge right off the bat that starting any Bills running back is a risky play, if only because the most effective “running back” in Buffalo goes by the name of Josh Allen. However, Moss has notched 15-plus points in each of the last two weeks (after being a healthy scratch in the season opener), out-touched fellow RB Devin Singletary 13-11 against Washington, and now takes on a Texans defence that has given up the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. In a game that figures to lean heavily in favour of the Bills, look for Sean McDermott & Co. to hand the ball often to Moss.

Other starter to consider: Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons (vs. WFT)

RB Sit – Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (@ Rams)
It’s an odd situation out in Arizona, as Edmonds has to co-exist with both James Conner (who snagged two touchdowns last week) and the elusive Kyler Murray. Edmonds still gets the bulk of the work through the air, having caught 16 of 17 targets through three weeks, but with Conner getting goal-line touches, and Murray himself scampering around back there, it’s best to see if the carries change at all on the road against a pretty fierce Rams defence.

RB Sit – Damien Harris, Patriots (vs. Buccaneers)
Well, the dreaded Patriots backfield conundrum has arrived. After being given tons of work in the first few games, Harris’s workload evaporated once New England was trailing. He ceded touches to JJ Taylor and Brandon Bolden. Now, it looks likely that Bill Belichick will add Rhamondre Stevenson back into the mix and he gets a Buccaneers defence that gives up the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season? Stay away this week.

TIGHT ENDS

TE Start – Tyler Higbee, Rams (vs. Cardinals)
I’ve put Higbee as a start before and if he produces again against a stingy Cardinals defence, we’re going to have to remove him permanently on the grounds that he should be an every-week starter going forward. Simply put, Matthew Stafford loves to throw the ball to tight ends, and even though others like Cooper Kupp are getting the bulk of the targets, Higbee is on the field for virtually every play and is a highly involved member of an offence that seemingly can score at will. As long as he is healthy, you’ll be hard pressed to find many players at this position with this high of a ceiling.

TE Start – Logan Thomas, WFT (@ Falcons)
Because the WFT offence doesn’t throw the ball a ton, virtually any member of this pass catching group does generally have a lower ceiling than some of their counterparts on other teams. However, Heinicke does still look Thomas’s way, and while JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson will jockey with him for targets and catches, he is still a low-end TE1 on a weekly basis. Keep in mind, Curtis Samuel was activated off injured reserve Friday and that’s another player that could eat into Thomas’s targets.

Other starter to consider: Dawson Knox, Bills (vs. Texans)

TE Sit – Robert Tonyan, Packers (vs. Steelers)
It was probably inevitable that Tonyan came back down to Earth a little this year, as the touchdown efficiency in 2020 was off the charts. Since he’s Aaron Rodgers’ tight end, he’ll always carry value, but the truth is he has eight targets through three weeks, which is unreliable at best even at a thin position. Let’s leave him on the bench for now because otherwise you’re just praying Rodgers looks his way in the red zone.

TE Sit – Dalton Schultz, Cowboys (vs. Panthers)
Schultz had eight catches for 80 yards over the first two weeks before exploding for six catches, 60 yards and two touchdowns Week 3 against the Eagles. Starting him this week, even against a Panthers secondary that recently lost some heralded players, seems like it would be chasing the points. With the Cowboys offence being as loaded as it is, it’s not a sure thing that he’s completely separated himself from fellow tight end Blake Jarwin, much less the rest of the pass catchers. Let’s wait a game or two until we start plugging him into our lineups on a weekly basis

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