Week 7 NFL spreads and storylines: Low totals and heavyweight matchups

We’re coming off a somewhat bizarre Week 6 in the NFL.

The Browns with a backup quarterback handed the 49ers their first loss and the Jets defence shut out the Eagles during a second-half comeback to spell Philly from the ranks of the undefeated. Heck, the Bills were even one end zone incompletion away from losing to the Giants.

The NFL’s low scoring was also prevalent with 26 of the 30 teams in action posting 21 or fewer points. What can fans expect this week?

The Cowboys, Bengals, Jets, Titans, Texans and Panthers are on bye, but the five 5-1 teams at the top of the standings are all in action and three of them are featured in prime time.

SPREADS & TOTALS

- LV (-2.5) at CHI (+2.5) | O/U: 37.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- CLE (-3.0) at IND (+3.0) | O/U: 40.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- BUF (-8.5) at NE (+8.5) | O/U: 40.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- WAS (-2.5) at NYG (+2.5) | O/U: 40.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- ATL (+2.5) at TB (-2.5) | O/U: 37.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- DET (+3.0) at BAL (-3.0) | O/U: 43.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- PIT (+3.0) at LAR (-3.0) | O/U: 43.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
- ARI (+7.5) at SEA (-7.5) | O/U: 44.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
- GB (-1.5) at DEN (+1.5) | O/U: 45.0 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- LAC (+5.5) at KC (-5.5) | O/U: 47.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
- MIA (+2.5) at PHI (-2.5) | O/U: 51.5 (8:20 p.m. ET)
- SF (-7.0) at MIN (+7.0) | O/U: 44.0 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)

There has been an abundance of low-scoring games early this season, and unders bettors have been loving life. That was especially the case in Week 6 when unders went 12-3. Can fans expect some regression as we enter the middle stretch of the regular season? Jacksonville and New Orleans kicked off Week 7 by hitting the over on Thursday by more than a converted touchdown.

There are only eight teams currently above .500 on overs and the only matchup this week featuring two those teams is Green Bay at Denver where the 45.0-point total is the third-highest of the week.

PROP WATCH: GUARANTEED SACK-FEST AT METLIFE STADIUM?

Washington allows a league-high 5.7 sacks per game and the Giants aren’t too far behind at 5.5 sacks allowed per game. Considering the Bears at 4.2 are the only other team allowing more than four sacks per game, can we expect both teams to continue struggling against the oncoming pass rush?

Commanders quarterback Sam Howell often doesn’t do himself any favours by holding onto the ball too long. Luckily for him, the Giants rank 32nd in the NFL in sacks and are the only team averaging fewer than one sack per game. Washington, meanwhile, ranks eighth averaging more than 3 sacks per game so New York pivot Tyron Taylor will need to keep his head on a swivel.

WAS Jonathan Allen to record a sack: Yes (+110) | No (-140)
WAS Da’Ron Payne to record a sack: Yes (+105) | No (-135)
WAS Montez Sweat to record a sack: Yes (-140) | No (+110)
WAS Chase Young to record a sack: Yes (-170) | No (+140)
NYG Dexter Lawrence to record a sack: Yes (+150) | No (-180)
NYG Kayvon Thibodeaux to record a sack: Yes (-115) | No (-115)
NYG Leonard Williams to record a sack: Yes (+150) | No (-180)

Sweat leads this group with 4.5 sacks this season, followed by Thibodeaux with 4.0 and Allen and Young each with 3.0 on the year so far.

WEEK 7 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW

Two heavyweight matchups in the spotlight: Detroit and Baltimore might not get as much attention as the other top teams, but there’s no hiding the fact both are among the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL this season. This huge interconference contest is the best matchup of the early slate. The Lions will be without running back David Montgomery, which puts pressure on rookie Jahmyr Gibbs who’s coming off a hamstring injury.

Is it hyperbole to dub this week’s Sunday nighter a potential Super Bowl preview when Miami visits Philadelphia in what is projected to be the highest-scoring matchup of the week?

The Eagles have only allowed two 100-yard receivers so far this season -- Justin Jefferson of the Vikings put up 159 in Week 2 and Cooper Kupp of the Rams had 118 in Week 5 – but they’re preparing for an entirely different beast in the Miami passing attack. Tyrek Hill already has four outings with more than 150 yards and at least one touchdown, so the Eagles secondary will have to be dialled in. On the opposite sideline, A.J. Brown of the Eagles has at least 127 receiving yards in four consecutive games.

Can Jerry Jeudy turn things around with Denver? The Broncos selected Jeudy with the 15th-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The wide receiver has yet to record 1,000-yard season and is struggling to produce in 2023. He’s coming off one of the worst games of his NFL career – three catches for 14 yards on five targets – and was eviscerated by Steve Smith Sr. on an NFL Network pre-game broadcast. With his name swirling in trade rumours, will he and Russell Wilson be able to find a connection at home against the Packers?

Divisional matchup and backup drama: Divisional matchups often result in fireworks and there are five of those on tap this week. Buffalo and Seattle can widen their respective gaps on New England and Arizona in the standings, the Commanders and Giants could be busy sacking each other, Atlanta and Tampa Bay are set to battle it out for top spot in the NFC South, and the Chiefs and Chargers typically engage in high-scoring affairs.

If we’re in for another low-scoring week overall, some of that could end up being attributed to several backup QBs behind centre. Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones of the Giants, both of whom missed last week, are listed as questionable and both Chicago and Las Vegas will be going with backups in that matchup.

Cousins back in primetime spotlight: Week 7 is capped off with the 49ers visiting Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins is one of those QBs who regularly struggles in primetime games. In particular, he is 2-10 all-time on Mondays during his NFL career with 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in those games. The Vikings are 0-1 in primetime games this season, losing to the Eagles in Week 2, but that one wasn’t Cousins’ fault. He threw for 364 yards and four TDs that game, but the 49ers defence poses a more difficult challenge.

(Team betting lines and totals via Covers, player props via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)