After 18 weeks of the regular season and two rounds of playoffs, just four teams remain in the hunt for the Super Bowl.
Let’s dive in.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS | Sunday 3 p.m. ET
Get ready for a “heavyweight matchup.” That’s how Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson described Sunday’s upcoming meeting between him and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and it might just be the best way to describe what we’re about to witness.
In one corner, you’ve got a two-time MVP with a pair of Super Bowl wins who’s taken his team all the way to the Conference Championship in all six of his seasons as a starter. In the other, you have another (soon-to-be) two-time MVP who has changed the game in his own way but whose legacy as one of the game’s true greats could be really locked in with a championship of his own.
Sunday’s matchup will be their first time going head-to-head in the post-season.
Which defence packs a bigger punch?
While Jackson was talking about the quarterbacks when he called this game a “heavyweight matchup,” that term is just as fitting when it comes to the defensive battle we’re about to witness.
Baltimore’s defence sits atop the league in multiple categories, headlined by a secondary that’s limited opposing passing games to the fewest yards per attempt (5.9 — tied with Cleveland) and the second-fewest touchdown passes (18), while also snatching up the second most interceptions (18).
Meanwhile, in Kansas City, we’re used to talking touchdowns, but the biggest reason for this year’s success has been on the other side of the ball. Led by a group of drafted-and-developed talent, the Chiefs have evolved into a really defence-heavy squad, boasting some of the best pass coverage in the league this year. They rank just behind Baltimore in yards allowed per attempt (six) and touchdown passes allowed (19).
Can Kansas City slow down Baltimore’s run game?
Neither team’s defence is without its flaws, and these two clubs share that in common. While both Baltimore and Kansas City have elite pass defences, both sides have struggled against the run.
While this sets the stage for another big showing from Isiah Pacheco after he ran all over both Miami and Buffalo the last two weekends, it spells trouble for the Chiefs considering the strength — and strength in numbers — of Baltimore’s rushers. Baltimore’s run game has been exceptional this season, finishing in the top three of yards per carry (4.9) and rushing touchdowns (26), while boasting the most dynamic runner in the league in Jackson. Not even Houston’s second-ranked run defence could slow Jackson & Co. down last weekend.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, allowed 182 rushing yards in their win over the Buffalo Bills last week, with Josh Allen running in two scores.
How will Andrews’ return alter Ravens’ offence?
Travis Kelce is the most famous tight end on the planet, and his historic post-season chemistry with Mahomes is the stuff of legend. But while he brings the star power to this matchup, his Ravens counterpart brings the intrigue. Baltimore’s been without its own TE1 in Mark Andrews since mid-November, forcing Jackson to win without his favourite target.
Wide receiver Zay Flowers saw more action in his absence, and while No. 2 tight end Isaiah Likely is a top-tier TE in his own right, there’s no question Andrews’ presence changes this game. How quickly can he get back up to speed?
DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET
First, they made it to the playoffs after six seasons without. Then, they won their first post-season game in more than 30 years — and liked it so much, they went and won another. Now, the Lions are one win away from going where they’ve never gone before: The Super Bowl.
The 49ers, on the other hand, are no strangers to the NFC Championship. Since losing to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, San Francisco has tried and failed to make it back to the game’s biggest stage. This is their third straight trip to the conference final, and fourth in five years.
Tucked in among the many storylines of this NFC matchup — one that sees a quarterback drafted last in his class lead a Goliath contender against a first-overall pick finding new life with a club that’s long been the underdog David — are a trio of pressing questions, the answers to which could hold the key to determining a winner.
How healthy is Deebo Samuel?
The 49ers are arguably the most complete team in the league, but word earlier this week was that they could be facing the Lions without their most complete offensive weapon in Deebo Samuel. Samuel was sidelined for most of last week’s win over Green Bay with a shoulder injury but was officially deemed available for Sunday’s matchup.
The do-it-all receiver can break a game wide open thanks to his ability to line up all over the field and clutch run-after-catch skills. His skillset poses a particular problem for the Lions’ secondary, which has struggled at times this season against the pass. He’s healthy enough to play, but will his shoulder hold him back? Expect Brock Purdy to target him early and often to find out.
Which rookie will shine brightest for Lions?
Detroit’s roster boasts plenty of young talent, but two rookies in particular have really made their marks on offence: tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
LaPorta has thrived in his first year with the Lions, and despite suffering a Week 18 knee injury, he appears good to go Sunday against the 49ers. With so much focus on top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, might LaPorta land more targets from Jared Goff? That was the case last week against the Buccaneers, when despite the knee issue, LaPorta led the Lions in catches (nine) for 65 yards. San Francisco’s pass defence is on another level, however… which means it could be Gibbs that gets the bulk of the calls on Sunday.
Gibbs is currently riding a three-game touchdown streak and has run in seven scores in his last seven games. It’s hard to find a flaw with San Francisco’s defence, but against the run the 49ers have shown vulnerability at times, especially when it comes to short-yardage plays. And with Lions head coach Dan Campbell’s penchant for fourth-down gambles — punting? What punting? — the Lions’ run game could factor in heavily in the biggest moments.
Who wins the battle in the trenches?
As much as this game will be driven by big-name weapons like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Samuel, Gibbs, St. Brown… the victory will belong to the team that can hold down its line the best. Both sides boast some of the best bodyguards in the league, as well as some of the NFL’s top edge rushers. Will Nick Bosa dictate the pace, or can Penei Sewell rein him in? Might Trent Richardson’s lock-down abilities hold back Aiden Hutchinson & Co? We’ll find out in prime time.