Week 5 of the NFL season is here, and we’ve hit the first group of bye weeks. The Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Tennessee Titans are all on a bye in Week 5.
Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings remain undefeated through the first four weeks. The hot start for the Vikings has positively impacted their football odds of winning the Super Bowl. After opening the season at +4000, they’re now +1600.
Below, I’ll examine the latest NFL odds via the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers and Falcons meet on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay allows 5.09 yards per carry to opposing running backs. They’ve also allowed three rushing touchdowns.
This will be a problem as the Falcons feature Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier averages more than six yards per carry, while Robinson has 15 catches through the first four weeks.
Look for the Falcons running game to lead them to victory.
PICK: Falcons -1.5. (-110)
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings
Live from London, the Jets look to slow down the Vikings offence. The Jets possess an excellent defence, allowing just 150 passing yards per game. They’ll aim to clamp down on the Vikings, who’ve trailed for only three minutes and 26 seconds this season.
If anyone can handle the disguised defensive packages that Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will draw up, it’s Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
PICK: Jets +2.5 (-105)
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
The Panthers have scored 60 points over the last two weeks with Andy Dalton as their starting QB. The Bears haven’t allowed a passing touchdown in the past two weeks, but they allowed four rushing touchdowns in that same span. They’ll look to contain Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard, who’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
On offence, the Bears average less than 20 points per game, and QB Caleb Williams has only one multi-touchdown game.
PICK: Panthers +4 (-110)
Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is completing 82.1 per cent of his passes, has a rushing touchdown in three of four games, and Washington has scored 38 or more in their last two games.
Their defence held strong in Week 4, holding the Arizona Cardinals to just 14 points.
The Browns haven’t scored more than 17 points this season, with QB Deshaun Watson completing only 61.5 per cent of his passes while averaging less than five yards per attempt.
PICK: Commanders -3.5 (-105)
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
The Dolphins started Tyler Huntley in Week 4, marking their third starting QB this season. They scored only 12 points at home. It’s unclear who will start this week, but they’ll be on the road against a Patriots team that cannot generate offence lately (16 points over the last two weeks).
The Dolphins have just seven sacks (28th). That said, the San Francisco 49ers generated 31 pressures against the Patriots in Week 4, according to Pro Football Focus.
PICK: Dolphins +1 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts QB Anthony Richardson left Week 4 early with a hip injury, and it’s unclear if he’ll sit or if backup Joe Flacco will start. Opposing QBs are averaging 284 passing yards and almost two passing touchdowns per game against the Jaguars.
The Jaguars had the lead with 18 seconds to go in Week 4 but allowed a touchdown and lost to the Houston Texans 24-20, so I don’t trust they can close out games in addition to their defensive issues.
PICK: Colts +3 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
While the Bills allow over five yards per carry to opposing RBs, it’s unclear if Joe Mixon will play. Even if Mixon doesn’t take the field, the Texans had 101 yards on the ground with Cam Akers, J.J. Taylor, and more in Week 4.
Additionally, this is the best group of wide receivers the Bills have faced this season, including their old friend Stefon Diggs.
PICK: Texans +1 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals defence allows an average of 114 rushing yards, and Ravens RB Derrick Henry is coming off a game in which he ran for 199 yards and two touchdowns.
Yes, the Ravens give up 282 passing yards per contest, but they allowed just 182 in Week 4 to the Bills, showing they can hold down elite QBs like Joe Burrow. The Bengals will also be unable to run the ball against the Ravens, who allow well under three yards per carry.
PICK: Ravens -2.5 (-115)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have rushed for 126 yards or more in their last two games and will take on a Raiders defence that allows 114.5 rushing yards per game (5.39 yards per carry).
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos hold opposing QBs to 169 passing yards and less than one touchdown per game. Through four weeks, the Broncos are second in sacks with 16.
PICK: Broncos -3 (-105)
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals are 1-3 and have allowed 34 points or more in two games, including Week 4 (42 to the Commanders). The defence hasn’t been able to stop anyone, and here they take on the 49ers, who average 413.3 yards per game.
While this bodes well for the 49ers, defensively, they’ve allowed 173 receiving yards to opposing WRs in two of their last three games. Look for the Cardinals to utilize WR Marvin Harrison Jr. often to keep this within seven.
PICK: Cardinals +7.5 (-115)
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Giants offence has looked inept all season outside of WR Malik Nabers. They’ve only scored over 20 once. The Seahawks defence was smoked in Week 4, allowing 42 points and a 100 per cent completion rate to Lions QB Jared Goff, but before this game, they held QBs like Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix to one total passing touchdown and 149 passing yards or less.
Jones is closer to the profile of those QBs than Goff.
PICK: Seahawks -6 (-115)
Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams
In his return to the field last week, Packers QB Jordan Love completed 32 of 54 passes for 389 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Rams allow two passing touchdowns per game and have given up 266 passing yards or more in two of four games. This Packers offence, along with their running game, will be too much for the Rams, especially with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out.
PICK: Packers -3.5 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Cowboys have allowed 28 points or more twice this season. They also surrendered 87 rushing yards to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson in Week 3. They’ll take on another running QB, Justin Fields, who has 55 rushing yards or more in two games.
The Steelers have a rock-solid defence, holding QBs to less than 200 yards passing per contest, and their pass rush, led by T.J. Watt, will prove to be an issue for Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
PICK: Steelers -2.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are without WR Rashee Rice, who suffered a knee injury in Week 4.
The Saints have allowed just one passing touchdown this season but give up 5.23 yards per carry. They’ll try to slow down Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry in Week 4 against the Chargers.
This could be a close contest considering the Chiefs’ injuries on offence and the Saints pass defence, leaving intriguing opportunities for live sports betting on New Orleans should KC get up early.
PICK: Saints +5.5 (-115)