As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on “The Blueprint 3,” “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.
1. Year of the rookie QB
Want to know why offence is down this year? One of the reasons is the number of young quarterbacks being forced to play not only early in their careers but also early in the year. With Will Levis, the rookie second-round pick, being announced the starter for the Tennessee Titans this week we now have seven rookie QBs who have started in the NFL and it’s only Week 8.
2. Careless Colts
It’s rare when a team gets worse at ball security when they go from playing their raw rookie to their veteran backup. That’s exactly the scenario the Indianapolis Colts find themselves in. Gardiner Minshew had three lost fumbles and one interception versus Cleveland last week. He has eight turnovers in his last two games. That statistic will have to drastically change if they’re going to stay in the hunt in the AFC South.
3. The Taylor Effect
If you’re a Kansas City Chiefs fan or Travis Kelce fantasy owner, you need to thank Taylor Swift. Kelce’s been putting on a show when his new boo is in attendance. With Swift in attendance, the Chiefs are 4-0, averaging 28.5 points per game, 432.8 total yards per game and Kelce is averaging 108 receiving yards per game. Without Swift the Chiefs are 2-1, averaging 21.3 points per game, 349.3 total yards per game and Kelce is averaging 46.5 receiving yards per game. The data is clear, get Taylor on the team flight.
4. Average Atlanta
Are the Atlanta Falcons good, bad or lucky? Thus far it’s too early to tell. Their record is 4-3 which is good enough for first place in the NFC South. But thus far they have three wins by less than a field goal and their three losses are all by more than a touchdown. The Falcons are the poster child for the mediocrity that exists in the modern-day NFL.
5. Ravens D for MVP
Lamar Jackson is getting MVP love and the majority of the credit for Baltimore’s fast start. Although the recognition is warranted the Ravens’ defence has been the most impressive aspect of their team thus far. This year the Ravens defence ranks first in points per game and sacks with 13.9 per game and 29 respectively. They’re also first in yards per attempt against with 5.4 and second in total QBR with 40.
6. Historic Bear
If you had Tyson Bagent as the Chicago Bears QB to make history this season congratulations. Bagent became the first Chicago Bears QB to win their first NFL start since Craig Krenzel in 2004. This was after being the first undrafted rookie QB from a Division 2 NCAA program to start a game since 1950. Bagent was not spectacular but solid enough going 21-28 for 162 pass yards with one TD but more importantly zero interceptions.
7. Garrett The Great
No NFL player has ever had more sacks before their 28th birthday than Myles Garrett. Garrett already has 82. For context that’s more than Reggie White (80), Derrick Thomas (77), Bruce Smith (76.5) and JJ Watt (76). When you consider Garrett has missed time due to suspension and injury his pace is even more impressive. One of the impressive aspects of the Browns’ defence is we are currently witnessing one of the most dominant pass rushers ever.
8. Worse with Watson
The mixed messaging around Deshaun Watson’s shoulder injury this past week underscored a point that is becoming self-evident. Not only is his contract the worst in the NFL they might be better off without him. The meager stat line of 11 pass TD’s and eight interceptions in 10 games since signing Watson is not exactly the return on investment, you’d expect from a five-year $230 million deal. This year Watson’s numbers aren’t trending closer to an elite level as his 42 total QBR this season is 24th in the NFL. To add insult to injury Watson only has five pass attempts since week three due to his shoulder injury. Since becoming a Brown, Watson has a 41 total QBR, 60 per cent completion percentage, 6.4 yards per attempt, and has led the team to 21 points per game. Every other Browns quarterback in the last two seasons has managed 56 total QBR, 62 per cent completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt and averaged 21.9 points per game.
9. Lawrence using his legs
When his arm has failed him, Trevor Lawrence has resorted to using his legs. Lawrence has one or fewer TD passes in five of the last six games. However, he’s been productive on the ground. Even while managing a knee injury Lawrence has racked up 30 or more rushing yards in three of the last four games.
10. Hill free from Gonzalez
Tyreke Hill is questionable to play versus New England this week due to a hip injury. But if he does play, he might just go off because of who won’t be playing for the Patriots. In Week 2 against the Patriots Hill was held to five receptions and 49 yards which was a season low. The main culprit shutting Hill down was Christian Gonzalez who is out with a shoulder injury. With Gonzales as the nearest defender Hill had four targets, one reception, for eight yards and Gonzales got himself an interception. It’s not as if it was a small sample size. Gonzalez covered Hill for 62 per cent of routes run.