Week 9 began with a 29-17 Eagles win over the Texans that was a bit closer than most football fans had anticipated — at least in the first half. Philadelphia improved to 8-0 but didn’t cover the 14.0 points, which was the biggest spread of the week.
Philly remains the frontrunner to emerge from the NFC this season. The top two teams in the AFC are Buffalo and Kansas City, the only other teams this week listed as double-digit betting favourites.
With an exciting and busy 2022 NFL trade deadline in the rear-view mirror, football fans will get to see a handful of players wearing new uniforms this weekend.
The Cowboys, Giants, 49ers, Browns, Broncos and Steelers are on bye this week. Let’s look at the Week 9 board with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus weekly picks and parlays.
Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.
SPREADS & TOTALS
Buffalo Bills (-11.5) vs. New York Jets (+11.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3.0) | Over/Under: 49.5
Miami Dolphins (-4.5) vs. Chicago Bears (+4.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Carolina Panthers (+7.0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.0) | Over/Under: 42.5
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (+3.5) | Over/Under: 49.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) vs. New England Patriots (-5.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Minnesota Vikings (-3.0) vs. Washington Commanders (+3.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) | Over/Under: 49.5
Los Angeles Rams (+3.0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0) | Over/Under: 42.5
Tennessee Titans (+11.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (+2.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
The betting favourite has covered in four of the past five meetings between AFC East rivals Bills and Jets. Second-year Jets starter Zach Wilson is coming off a three-interception game in an ugly loss to the Patriots. Wilson has only 12 career TD passes to date compared to 16 INTs.
Josh Allen defended Wilson’s play this week in an interview with Kyle Brandt, pointing out he had three interceptions in a game against the Patriots early in his sophomore season with the Bills and saying, “it all clicked for me after that game.” Allen, who had just 13 career passing TDs and 18 INTs at the time, only threw three more picks the remainder of that season but tossed an additional 17 touchdowns.
Versatile Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson returns from IR as Atlanta hosts the Chargers off their bye. These teams have only played twice since 2012 with the Chargers winning each of those games by a field goal.
The Dolphins and Bears were among the most active teams at the trade deadline. The Bears sent linebacker Roquan Smith to the Ravens and Justin Fields will have new WR Chase Claypool, acquired from Pittsurgh. Miami made some swaps at running back but their big splash was landing star pass rusher Bradley Chubb, who signed an extension in Miami after the trade with Denver. Chubb will make his Dolphins debut against one of the more mobile QBs in the NFL.
The Panthers are 3-2 against the spread when an underdog; the Bengals are 4-3 ATS as the favourite.
Detroit is allowing a league-high 32.1 points per game, while Green Bay is scoring only 18.1 points per game, the seventh-worst average in the league. They also, yet again, did not acquire a WR to help Aaron Rodgers.
Las Vegas and Jacksonville are a combined 0-10 in one-score games this season (LV 0-4, JAX 0-6) and are featured in the game that’s closest to a coinflip on the schedule this week.
Indianapolis fired their offensive coordinator this week prior to their game versus New England, which will be Sam Ehlinger’s second career start.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is 1-0 against Washington, the team that drafted him in 2012, but has never thrown or scored a touchdown versus his former team. Commanders starter Taylor Heinicke began his NFL career in 2015 as a backup with the Vikings.
The under has hit in five of the past seven meetings between Seattle and Arizona and the underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in this rivalry over the past 16 encounters, so it makes sense the line has shifted Seattle’s way slightly throughout the week.
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their five most recent home games, while the Rams have covered ATS in six consecutive road games against the Bucs.
Titans running back Derrick Henry has rushed for more than 100 yards four games in a row. The Titans are 4-1 versus Kansas City when Henry plays (3-0 regular season, 1-1 playoffs). He averages 111 rushing yards and has six total TDs in five games facing the Chiefs.
Andy Dalton has given the Saints a spark behind centre in recent weeks, however Dalton is 8-10 all-time against the Ravens and is notably 6-19 in primetime games.
MIKEY J’S CARD …
(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 48-66)
Favourites ATS (13-16): Ravens -2.5, Chargers -3.0, Dolphins -4.5
Underdogs ATS (13-12): Jaguars +1.5, Seahawks +1.5, Rams +3.0, Commanders +3.0, Colts +5.5
Overs (5-14): MIA/CHI 45.5, TEN/KC 44.5, MIN/WAS 43.5
Unders (8-12): LAC/ATL 49.5, LAR/TB 42.5, GB/DET 49.5
Moneyline dogs (9-12): Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams
Look at that record! The second half of the season will be better, but now that I’m officially below .500 in all categories the full-on fade would be wise to consider. Ravens-Saints might be my rat line of the week but I cannot and will not bet on Dalton in primetime.
THE WEEKLY RIDLEY
(Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley, acquired from the Falcons at the trade deadline, was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for betting on games. The NFL concluded he placed three multi-leg parlay bets (three-, five- and eight-game parlays) that included the Falcons winning. Each week throughout the regular season we will attempt to cash three levels of Ridley-inspired parlays. 2022 record: 4-4)
We hit another one with Level 1 and 2 cashing in Week 8 thanks to Atlanta’s dramatic overtime win over the Panthers. This week they’re home dogs against the Chargers who’ll look to exploit Atlanta’s pass defence.
Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+350): Falcons (+135), Dolphins (-210), Bengals (-340)
Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+495): Falcons (+135), Dolphins (-210), Bengals (-340), Bills (-650), Chiefs (-650),
Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+3325): Falcons (+135), Dolphins (-210), Bengals (-340), Bills (-650), Chiefs (-650), Jaguars (+105), Vikings (-165), Ravens (-135)
Weekly Ridley Confidence Level: Could be better. The Chargers coming off a bye are road favourites for a reason.
(Odds and trends via Covers, moneyline odds via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)