The Super Bowl is upon us and there are some tantalizing storylines and matchups on deck on before the game in Las Vegas. As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.”
When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your playoff wagers, confidence pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your Super Bowl watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers you need to know.
Here are the keys stats from a Kansas City Chiefs perspective that will tell the story of the last game of the NFL season.
1. Better record doesn’t mean better
The better team doesn’t always win. Although the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) have a better record than the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) since 2003 the team with the better record in the Super Bowl has gone 1-15 against the spread. The 49ers opened as two-point favourites vs. Chiefs. This is notable because underdogs have won eight of the last 12 Super Bowls outright (67 per cent). The Chiefs were 1.5 underdogs last year and won.
2. 28 below
The Chiefs have allowed 28 points or less in all 20 games this season, most in NFL history. Four teams had previously done it in 19 games. They are the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers. All four of those previous teams won the Super Bowl.
3. Reid has rematch edge
This is the fourth time we have a Super Bowl rematch not just among the teams but the head coaches. Chuck Noll vs. Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson vs. Marv Levy and Tom Coughlin vs. Bill Belichick were the other rematches before we now get Andy Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan 2.0. In each of the previous three instances, the coach to win the first one also won the second one.
4. Reid vs Belichick
It is just our default understanding that Bill Belichick is the greatest coach ever. But with another Super Bowl win can Andy Reid give him a run for his money as best coach of this era?
Andy Reid has 25 career playoff wins, the most among the NFL’s current head coaches. Current is the keyword as Belichick is out of the league now that all of the 2024 head coaching vacancies have been filled. Who knows if or when Belichick gets back in but Reid is six years younger than Belichick and quickly closing ground.
Reid has 258 regular season wins and has won 64.1 per cent of his games. Belichick has 302 regular season wins and has won 64.7 per cent of his games. They are both chasing Don Shula for the all-time mark, at 328 regular season wins. Reid has stated he wants to be around for the entirety of Patrick Mahomes‘s current contract. If that remains to be true, the top of the coaching wins list will get crowded.
5. Young GOAT
Mahomes is the youngest QB to make his fourth Super Bowl at just 28 years and 147 days. The mark previously was held by Tom Brady, who was 30 years and 184 days when his Patriots lost Super Bowl XLII to Eli Manning and the Giants. Mahomes is now the first QB to start four Super Bowls before turning 30.
6. Playoff Patrick
Mahomes boasts a 14-3 career playoff record which is the most QB wins among active players. In the playoffs, he’s 13-1 in regulation, 2-0 on the road and 3-0 as an underdog. Since Mahomes entered the league, the only teams to win 14 games in a regular season are the 2019 Ravens, the 2022 Eagles and the 2022 Chiefs.
The fact that he’s played 17 playoff games gives us a regular season length sample size to evaluate. His playoff stat line — 67.4 completion percentage, 4,802 passing yards, 458 rushing yards, 39 passing TDs, five rushing TDs and seven interceptions — is incomparable. Those are MVP-like numbers against the league’s best teams in win-or-go-home scenarios.
7. Mahomes vs. Brady
The only person you can compare Mahomes to in the playoffs is Brady. As much as this week’s Super Bowl is Mahomes against the 49ers, everything he does is largely Mahomes vs. Brady at this point.
Mahomes at just 28 has 74 regular season wins, 14 playoff wins, four Super Bowl appearances, two Super Bowl wins, two Super Bowl MVPs and two NFL MVPs. By comparison Brady at the same age had 58 regular season wins, 10 playoff wins, three Super Bowl appearances, three Super Bowl wins, two Super Bowl MVPs and no NFL MVPs.
Mahomes is the third QB to start four Super Bowls in a five-season span, joining Brady and Jim Kelly. The 14 playoff wins Mahomes already has is only behind Brady and Joe Montana. And only Brady and John Elway have more Super Bowl starts than Mahomes, who is making his fourth.
8. Patient Patrick
Mahomes is chasing Brady and climbing the playoff record books in more ways than one. The record for the most consecutive pass attempts without an interception in NFL post-season history is held by Brady with 237, just ahead of Drew Brees with 226. Mahomes is at 203 and at this rate could be the sole record holder by the end of the Super Bowl. Mahomes has gotten better at taking care of the ball over time and, remarkably, he has 11 pass TDs, and zero interceptions in his last six playoff games.
10. Mahomes career versus the 49ers
Post-season or regular season, Mahomes dominates San Francisco. He has a 3-0 record with 37.7 points per game, nine TDs, three interceptions and a 106.7 passer rating against the 49ers.
11. Chiefs D second to none
The Chiefs offence may get the headlines but their defence is the true strength of the team and the reason they’re playing in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs have held opponents to fewer than 10 points in the second half in each of their last eight games. They’ve allowed only 10 second-half points total in three playoff games against the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens, which were all good offences.
The Chiefs held Baltimore, the league’s No. 1 rushing offence, to 81 yards on the ground. It marked the first time that the Ravens didn’t top 100 rushing yards as a team since Week 1 of the 2022 season, a span of 36 games. Kansas City will have to come up with a similar performance against the 49ers if they want to win the Super Bowl.