Christmas came early for the Cincinnati Bengals, who kicked off Week 16 by earning a playoff berth Thursday night without even hitting the field, thanks to the Jacksonville Jaguars’ victory over the New York Jets.
‘Tis the season for clinching scenarios, and the Jaguars’ win over New York Thursday night had big repercussions in the AFC. The Chargers, Ravens and Bengals all entered Week 16 with clinching scenarios that involved a Jets loss. Cincinnati’s route was the simplest, of course – Baltimore and L.A. still have some work to do in order to complete their respective playoff-clinching puzzles this weekend, but can thank the Jaguars for opening the door.
The Colts, meanwhile, can kiss any lingering playoff hopes goodbye as Jacksonville’s victory officially eliminated Indianapolis from contention.
New York’s loss also sets up the Jets to be eliminated from contention with a win for all three of Miami, New England and the Chargers, as well as a win or tie for Baltimore or a loss or tie for Cleveland in the days to come.
So, who’s in? Week 15 presented five teams with clinching scenarios, and all five made good on those opportunities. In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills became the first team officially in the playoffs while the Kansas City Chiefs became the first AFC club to officially claim a division crown (that’s seven straight AFC West titles now), while the Super Bowl runner-up, the Bengals, now become the third team to punch their ticket in the conference.
In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers (division), Minnesota Vikings (division) and Dallas Cowboys (playoff berth) all clinched last week, joining the Philadelphia Eagles in the playoff picture.
Looking at Week 16’s action, three division titles and four playoff spots remain up for grabs in the AFC. The Ravens and Chargers can clinch playoff spots this weekend, while the Bills have a chance to officially earn the AFC East title and, in doing so, would inch closer to locking up the No. 1 seed.
Over in the NFC, things are filling out fast, with two divisions still to be crowned and just three playoff spots available – one of which has to go to an NFC South club (I don’t make the rules). The Eagles can lock up the top seed in the conference this weekend, while the Giants are the only NFC squad that can punch their ticket to the playoffs in Week 16.
Who’s out? Six teams are officially out of contention: Houston, Chicago, Denver, the L.A. Rams, Arizona and Indianapolis. Seven more clubs could join this week, if things don’t go their way: Cleveland, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Atlanta and the Jets.
As we look ahead to this weekend, which features a full slate of Saturday games on Christmas Eve, a Christmas Day triple-header and a Boxing Day showdown on Monday, here’s what we’re watching for:
If the playoffs started today, here’s what the seeding and matchups would look like in the AFC:
No. 1 Bills (11-3) on bye
No. 2 Chiefs (11-3) vs. No. 7 Dolphins (8-6)
No. 3 Bengals (10-4) vs. No. 6 Chargers (8-6)
No. 4 Titans (7-7) vs. No. 5 Ravens (9-5
If the playoffs started today, here’s what the seeding and matchups would look like in the NFC:
No. 1 Eagles (13-1) on bye
No. 2 Vikings (11-3) vs. No. 7 Commanders (7-6-1)
No. 3 49ers (10-4) vs. No. 6 Giants (8-5-1)
No. 4 Buccaneers (6-8) vs. No. 5 Cowboys (10-4)
WEEK 16 STORYLINES AND CLINCHING SCENARIOS
(*Teams with an opportunity to clinch in italics.)
Falcons (5-9) @ Ravens (9-5) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
This Bird Bowl’s got a little extra on the line for both clubs.
Unlike their AFC North foes in Cincinnati, the Ravens aren’t in full control of their playoff fate and need a little help from other AFC Teams if they are to clinch a playoff spot in Week 16.
The Jets’ loss to Jacksonville Thursday night opened the door a little wider for two of Baltimore’s three clinching scenarios this week. Baltimore now needs a win over the Falcons AND a loss for either New England or Miami in order to secure a playoff spot.
The Falcons, meanwhile, need a win if they are to avoid multiple elimination scenarios this week.
Lions (7-7) @ Panthers (5-9) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
Jared Goff is the only QB without a turnover in the past six weeks. He’s thrown 219 pass attempts without an interception, and between his clean play and the Lions’ stout offensive and defensive lines, playoffs are no longer a remote possibility – the hope is real in Detroit. A win over Carolina would make things mighty interesting in the NFC playoff picture.
Seahawks (7-7) @ Chiefs (11-3) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
Kansas City has already locked up the AFC West – their seventh straight division title – but while Patrick Mahomes has a knack for making miraculous plays look easy, the Chiefs’ stretch run hasn’t been without its stresses. In back-to-back victories over non-playoff clubs, Kansas City has continued its bad habit of letting lesser opponents stay in games.
The skidding Seahawks are in must-win mode after being ousted from the playoff picture following four losses in their past five games.
Saints (5-9) @ Browns (6-8) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
The Browns’ low-scoring victory over Baltimore last Saturday saved them from being eliminated from contention, and this Saturday presents another win-or-go-home situation in Cleveland.
The Saints, too, risk elimination this week. A loss for New Orleans and a win for Tampa Bay means they’re officially out of the running.
Texans (1-12-1) @ Titans (7-7) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
A 13th loss on the season would go a long way in securing the Texans the first overall draft pick this spring, but Houston’s had some close calls when it comes to playing spoiler. They took the Chiefs to overtime on Sunday, where they lost by a touchdown, and one week earlier had the Cowboys on the hook before Dallas came all the way back.
The Titans, meanwhile, are at risk of spoiling their own playoff hopes thanks to a four-game losing skid and a streaking Jaguars club hot on their heels. Suddenly, that Week 18 matchup between Tennessee and Jacksonville is looking mighty interesting.
Bengals (10-4) @ Patriots (7-7) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are looking every bit the Super Bowl contender they were last year, thanks to a hot streak that’s seen them win six straight games.
The Jaguars must’ve been feeling festive Thursday night, because they gifted Cincinnati a trip to the playoffs. By defeating the Jets, the Jaguars guaranteed the Bengals a playoff spot.
The AFC North cannot be decided this week.
Giants (8-5-1) @ Vikings (11-3) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
The New York Giants slowed their stumble with a crucial victory over Washington Sunday night to give them the edge in what is a tight wild-card race in their own division. After a strong start to the season and a mid-year slump, the Giants can officially get this show back on the road in Week 16, but they cannot do it alone.
New York can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Minnesota and a loss for two of the Lions, Seahawks and Commanders.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a historic comeback win over the Colts last weekend that saw them (finally!) clinch the NFC North after leading the field all season. We know they’re playoff-bound, but what we don’t know, still, is whether they’re actually going to be good when they get there. Safe to say that all Vikings want for Christmas is just a boring, normal win.
Bills (11-3) @ Bears (3-11) | Saturday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
Buffalo is already playoff-bound, but now has its sights set on claiming a third straight division title. The Bills will clinch the AFC East with a win Saturday over the Bears OR a Dolphins loss (vs. Packers) on Sunday.
Commanders (7-6-1) @ 49ers (10-4) | Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET / 1:05 p.m. PT
The 49ers kicked off Week 15 with a division-clinching win, and with the Eagles most likely grabbing the conference’s top spot, it’s all about staying healthy. Speaking of which, the Commanders just got the best Christmas gift. He’s baaaaack:
Eagles (13-1) @ Cowboys (10-4) | Saturday 4:25 p.m. ET / 1:25 p.m. PT
Every time these divisional foes meet, it feels like there’s a lot more on the line than your average football game. This time there is. While both clubs are already officially playoff-bound, the Eagles can lock up the division and the No. 1 seed in the NFC (complete with a first-round bye and home-field advantage) with a victory over Dallas on Saturday evening.
If Philadelphia is to make good on this opportunity, they’ll have to do so without their fearless leader (and should-be MVP front-runner) Jalen Hurts. With Hurts resting up with a shoulder injury, backup Gardner Minshew has a chance to play hero.
Raiders (6-8) @ Steelers (6-8) | Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET / 5:15 p.m. PT
A loss at home for the Steelers will officially rule them out of contention and put an end to head coach Mike Tomlin’s incredible streak of seasons at the helm of Pittsburgh without a losing season (with a loss on Saturday night, the best record they could finish the season with would be 8-9).
The Raiders’ hopes are slightly safer but still incredibly slim. They cannot be eliminated with a loss alone – they’ll have to wait until Monday night’s Chargers game to rule their fate.
Packers (6-8) @ Dolphins (8-6) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
Green Bay needs a lot of help to get into the playoffs, but the assignment is simple if it doesn’t want to be ruled out this week. A loss plus a Washington win would rule out Aaron Rodgers & Co. from contention.
Broncos (4-10) @ Rams (4-10) | Sunday 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT
Don’t worry, at least they’ve got a good draft pick this yea—oh, never mind.
Buccaneers (6-8) @ Cardinals (4-10) | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET / 5:20 p.m. PT
A win for Tampa Bay won’t clinch anything just yet, but Tom Brady can give his club a little breathing room by beating the Cardinals. With no Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy available, it’s Trace McSorley time. There will be no Christmas miracles for Arizona, whose playoff hopes have already been dashed, but can you think of a better gift for a rookie QB than defeating the GOAT? Let’s see how generous Brady is feeling.
Chargers (8-6) @ Colts (4-9-1) | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET / 5:15 p.m. PT
A lot of things need to go right before the Chargers even hit the field Monday night if they are to clinch a playoff spot. They’re off to a good start, thanks to the Jaguars’ win over the Jets. The Chargers’ lone clinching scenario this week requires an L.A. victory against the Colts, AND a loss for all three of the Jets, Patriots and Raiders before that.
Nothing has gone right for the Colts, meanwhile, who were on the wrong end of a historic comeback last week against Minnesota. With Matt Ryan benched for the second time this year, it’s time for our annual edition of Nick Foles plays where, now? The Jaguars already dashed Indianapolis’ playoff hopes – their victory over the Jets on Thursday means the Colts are eliminated from contention.
THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM
If the season ended today, here’s what the top 10 draft order of the 2023 NFL Draft would look like:
1. Texans (1-12-1)
2. Bears (3-11)
3. Seahawks (7-7), via Broncos (4-10)
4. Lions (7-7), via Rams (4-10)
5. Cardinals (4-10)
6. Colts (4-9-1)
7. Falcons (5-9)
8. Panthers (5-9)
9. Eagles (13-1), via Saints (5-9)
10. Raiders (6-8)