Will he, or won’t he?
Alex Ovechkin now sits 41 goals behind Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record heading into next season, giving him a chance to break the mark in 2024-25. Ovechkin finished this year with his lowest goal total over a full season in his career and has clearly lost a step, but a 42-goal campaign certainly isn’t out of the question.
If you’re looking at the glass half full, Ovechkin scored 23 of his 31 goals this season in his final 36 games. That’s a 52-goal pace and much more what we’re accustomed to when watching the Washington Capitals forward. He got better as the year went on, something that should give you optimism for a 38-year-old.
On the other hand, Ovechkin isn’t shooting with anywhere near the same volume as he has in past years. He fell short of 300 shots for the second consecutive year, the only two times he’s done that over a full season in his career as well. Ovechkin also was stuck in a massive first half slump, so if that happens again, it seems very unlikely he’d pass Gretzky next season.
Those first half struggles will likely make Ovechkin’s draft position much lower than it was last season, too, making him a bit of a buy-low and value option. At the end of the day, I always say a motivated fantasy player is a good one to have around. Whether it’s playing for a contract or trying to hit a personal milestone, many times you get a player’s best hockey when they have a little extra motivation. Auston Matthews’ pursuit of 70 goals down the stretch was more evidence of that. At the very least, Gretzky’s record is now in striking distance for Ovechkin and you know he’d love to reach it before next season comes to an end.
The chase is on.
1. Once again, we learned the value of Zero G this season. Drafting goalies late or finding gems on waivers continues to be a great strategy, as the likes of Joey Daccord, Cam Talbot, Charlie Lindgren and Ukko-Pekka-Luukkonen proved. Lindgren didn’t even have an ADP this year and the other three were all drafted on average well outside the top 125. That’s tremendous value for goalies that provided significant value for most of the season.
Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger and Juuse Saros, who both went inside the top 50, had save percentages of .905 and .906 respectively. It’s not that Saros and Oettinger didn’t have value this year, but you could have easily survived with one or two of the other four and used that earlier pick on a proven skater.
If you can hit on a Zero G option it can give you a huge advantage over your competition.
2. Some early Zero G candidates for next season would be Dustin Wolf, Lukas Dostal and Daniil Tarasov, though those options will depend a lot on how good the teams in front of them are. Yaroslav Askarov would be another name to watch. It’s very likely he’ll be with the Nashville Predators full time next season and if we see some more inconsistency from Saros, Askarov could have decent value in a timeshare role.
3. One of the more intriguing situations between the pipes this season was in Seattle. Daccord really emerged as a quality option for the Kraken, but they ultimately started to lean on Philipp Grubauer down the stretch. The pair were rotating almost every other game for some time, until Grubauer started five of six games during the fantasy playoffs. I know some were puzzled by this and asking what it meant for Daccord next year. I always think you follow the money when it comes to goalies and Grubauer has the big contract, so I don’t see Daccord getting the bulk of the starts in 2024-25 if both guys are healthy. I’d be a little cautious about drafting Daccord too early this fall.
4. Shane Wright looked pretty good in a late-season call up, scoring four goals in five games. Wright has been somewhat forgotten about after falling a few spots in his draft and playing mainly in the AHL this season, but there’s a good chance he’s playing with the Kraken full time next year. I don’t see Wright as a high-end scorer in the NHL, though I think he has a good chance to be a complete player that will eventually have decent value in multi-cat leagues.
5. Age definitely caught up to a few players this season. Most notably, Brent Burns, who managed just 43 points. That’s tough to swallow for a player that went in the eighth round on average. Burns will turn 40 next season and given the structured style of play the Carolina Hurricanes utilize, his best fantasy days are likely behind him.
6. Mikhail Sergachev will be a major wild card next season. He missed most of 2023-24 with injuries and many even picked Sergachev over Victor Hedman in drafts last fall. Hedman, though, bounced back in a major way and reclaimed his spot on the top power-play unit. You should be able to get Sergachev later in your draft and he’ll have some decent upside. He’s a risk worth taking.
7. One important thing to watch during this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs are any players that have a breakout post-season. That can often be a tell of a player’s potential outlook for next season. Evan Bouchard was a great example of this a year ago, when he notched 17 points in 12 playoff games after recording just 40 during the regular season. Now he’s a point per game blueliner and an obvious keeper. There’s no doubt someone else will emerge similarly this spring.
8. Does Gabriel Landeskog make it back if the Colorado Avalanche go on a deep playoff run? It would be a great story and a healthy Landeskog could have major fantasy implications for next season.
9. Look for Jeremy Lauzon to skyrocket up draft boards next year. He is coming off a campaign where he set the single-season record for hits and is a great option on the blue line in multi-cat leagues. Lauzon is especially valuable in head-to-head formats where winning the hits category is just as valuable as winning the goals category. There’s a good chance you’ll win the hits category every week with Lauzon on your squad.
10. I’m very curious to see what Utah does in free agency this summer. We’re used to Arizona not spending and just accumulating draft picks around the deadline, but it seems like a great time for Utah to add and sell a new franchise to fans. Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther are really starting to come on and Clayton Keller and Sean Durzi are hitting their primes. Utah to could be a really fun fantasy team next season if they bring in a couple of significant names.
11. If there’s a team to buy low on next year, it’s the Buffalo Sabres. There will be a handful of players that fell well below expectations in 2023-24 like Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens and even Devon Levi, that should be great value picks next fall.
12. Speaking of buy-low options, how about Trevor Zegras? His value plummeted this year but closed with eight points in his final eight games. There’s also the possibility Zegras gets traded this summer, since the Anaheim Ducks are eventually going to be strong down the middle. Zegras has a lot of talent and if you’re going to bet on something during your drafts, I’d always bet on talent.
13. Juraj Slafkovsky finished with 20 goals and 50 points, something that seemed unimaginable after an uninspiring rookie campaign. The Montreal Canadiens have found something with him, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield as a top line and there’s no doubt that Slafkovsky should be drafted in all deep leagues going forward. This season felt like Slafkovsky was only scratching the surface of his abilities and his upside could be off the charts.
14. We also saw a brief cameo of Lane Hutson on the Canadiens’ blue line to close out the season and he looked really good. So did Frank Nazar in Chicago, as a handful of players made the jump from college to the pros in the final week or two of the season. It’s a good strategy to take a chance on players like this with one of the final picks of your draft. They have way more upside and potential than veterans where you know their ceilings. You may even stumble into a keeper out of it.
15. I’d be a little cautious about taking Jonathan Marchessault too high in 2024-25. He’s 33, coming off a career-high 42 goals and 69 points, which is always a dangerous combination for overdrafting. The other thing to consider here is that Marchessault might have played his way out of Vegas because they simply may not be able to afford him with their cap constraints. A player approaching his mid-thirties leaving a strong team feels like a situation that screams regression.
16. If nothing else, Nick Robertson is proving he can score at the NHL level. He’s clicked at a 21-goal pace this year and it would be nice to see him get more of an opportunity. Whether that’s in the top six with the Toronto Maple Leafs or in a change of scenery, Robertson seems like someone to bet on long term.
17. Marc-Andre Fleury re-signing with the Minnesota Wild for another year isn’t ideal for Jesper Wallstedt. It felt like Wallstedt was almost ready, and he got into a few games this year. It’s also possible this could mean Filip Gustavsson gets traded in the off-season. He’s had a down year and Minnesota needs cap space. Going with three goalies makes it tough to rely on any in fantasy and it would be a disappointing development if you’ve been keeping Wallstedt. Minnesota’s goaltending situation is one to watch this summer.
18. Semyon Varlamov stealing the net somewhat down the stretch could be a blessing in disguise for Ilya Sorokin’s value next season. If Sorokin doesn’t re-solidify his spot and have a solid post-season showing, he could fall in drafts. I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be a big drop as Sorokin is still one of the top three or four goalies in the game, but you might be able to get him a few spots later than usual.
19. One player that’s going to be tough to draft in the right spot next year is Filip Forsberg. He’s had an incredible season, but I’m worried his linemates won’t be as productive and aid him as much in 2024-25. Gustav Nyquist recorded a career-high 75 points out of nowhere and will be 35 next season, while Ryan O’Reilly scored at a rate he hasn’t in years. I’m skeptical about both of those things continuing. I’m not saying shy away from Forsberg, just be careful about overdrafting.
20. Moritz Seider may not end up as offensive force on the blue line, but I’m not concerned about taking him in a multi-cat league. The Detroit Red Wings defender had well over 200 hits and 200 blocks this season, making him a massive difference maker in any league with those categories. Any offence is really just gravy on top of his game.