Was the Southeast Division actually the best division?
So much for the South-Least.
Carolina, Florida, Washington and Tampa Bay were the Core Four, if you will, of that former sunbelt group, which was often viewed with scorn from the more traditional northern markets. I’d know, I live in one.
But the sunbelts have the last laugh as Canada’s Stanley Cup drought hits 30 years, the final four teams left standing are all either in or south of the Mojave Desert, and that Southeast Division has produced some pretty good teams recently.
Tampa, of course, made it to three straight Stanley Cup Finals, winning two of them. Washington won the Stanley Cup in 2018. Carolina has been an annual contender for years, trying to get over that hump, and are in the Eastern Conference Final for the second time since 2019. Florida was last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, and this year’s giant killers.
So ya, the SouthFeast is having its way with the NHL lately.
Carolina and Florida should make for a fascinating series and have built their teams to this point in creatively different ways.
The Hurricanes have largely stuck with a core that has taken a few years to break back into the third round again, and been patient as the key young guns they drafted — Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho — matured as players. They have been defined by a deeply talented blue line for years and made a bold move last summer to add the dynamic Brent Burns to it, which was one of the better off-season acquisitions made by any team. They even tried to add some more scoring punch with Max Pacioretty, but brutal Achilles injuries held him to five mid-season games.
The Panthers took more than a quarter of a century to build a winner again, and even this playoff success is coming after it seemed like the team already passed by its best chance for a run. The top overall regular season team a year ago, the Panthers were swept in Round 2 by the much more polished and proven Lightning and reacted by making a significant change to the core. The trade with Calgary that sent Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar packing for Matthew Tkachuk will be discussed for years but, looking at it now from the Eastern Conference Final, the Panthers are on the winning side of it.
Of course, had journeyman goalie Alex Lyon not gone on an improbable hot streak at the end of the regular season, the Panthers would have missed the playoffs and we’d view that deal entirely differently. But that’s a story for another day.
Today, we’re drilling into the Eastern Conference Final between the top seed in the Metropolitan Division, Carolina, and the second wild card team that qualified for this tournament by a single point, Florida.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Florida: 1-2-0
Carolina: 2-1-0
Hurricanes X-Factor: Brent Burns-Jaccob Slavin
Perhaps the best defence pair left in the playoffs, the Burns-Slavin duo provides a lot of offensive upside, and plenty of defensive acumen. The two have played 184:07 together at 5-on-5 in these playoffs and when they’ve been on the ice the Hurricanes have outshot the competition 111-77 and outscored them 13-3. When neither of them are out there, Carolina’s shot advantage shrinks to 167-162, and they’ve been outscored 17-12.
Burns is the offensive driver of the pair and, along with Brady Skjei, his 18 goals were tied for the lead on a blue line that was first in the NHL in goal scoring in the regular season. But he’s not a liability on defence so much, and Burns is one of five defencemen this post-season to average at least three minutes of PP duty per game and two minutes of PK time.
Slavin, meantime, is the shutdown arm of the pair and one of the most underrated defensive blueliners for the past few seasons. He’s the team leader in PK time and though he doesn’t factor in much on the power play, you should look past his offensive presence at your own peril. He has six points in 11 playoff games so far this season and has scored just as many goals as his defence partner at 5-on-5.
This is the important shutdown pair that will meet the opposition’s best as much as it will be relied on to create offence and generate actual goals.
Panthers X-Factor: Sam Bennett
It took Bennett all of one game to have an offensive and emotional impact on the Toronto Maple Leafs and their fan base, finishing Game 1 with two points, six penalty minutes and sending a distinct message to be aware of his presence on the ice. Say what you might about Bennett the player never topping even 20 goals or 40 points for the Flames, who drafted him fourth overall, but he’s always been a playoff menace. He had 19 points in 30 playoff games in Calgary and in Florida he’s been better on both sides of the post-season line.
So expect Bennett to be out there again, toeing the line of legality, living hard in the corners and in front of the net, and probably popping up on the score sheet. The Panthers hope that impact will be all positive, but the risk is that it can turn negative in a hurry. Bennett had a controversial net-front cross-checking sequence against Michael Bunting last round that some believed was suspension-worthy but ultimately led to just a fine. Two years ago in the playoffs he earned a one-game suspension in their opening-round series against Tampa. Bennett has to play on that edge, but be sure not to cross it to where he’s taking more penalties than he’s drawing, or being forced by the league to sit out for a game or more.
PLAYOFF TEAM STATS
ADVANCED STATS
Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick
Hurricanes unsung hero: Jordan Staal
Staal is a known factor and Stanley Cup winner, so he’s not coming out of left field here. But as Carolina’s third-line centre he’s maybe not getting the same renowned recognition as leading scorer Sebastian Aho, or Jordan Martinook who scored all 10 of his points in Round 2, or Frederik Andersen who has a .931 save percentage in six playoff starts in 2023, or the stymying defence corps. But in a shutdown role, and with some wingers alternating on and off his line, Staal has been stellar. When Staal was on the ice the Hurricanes outshot the high-flying Devils 30-27 in Round 2 and outscored them 6-1 at 5-on-5 (Staal himself had six points in five games against New Jersey).
Carolina scored plenty in Round 2 and are the fourth-highest scoring team of the playoffs so far, but there’s still a question of if they’ll get enough offence when the games get tighter as the playoffs go on. When that happens, checkers become more important, and Staal is one of the best defensive pivots around. He’ll loom large in the Eastern Conference Final.
Panthers unsung hero: Eetu Luostarinen
The Bennett-Matthew Tkachuk line has gained attention this post-season for its possession and scoring metrics and for how irritating they can be to the opponent and its fans. The Aleksander Barkov-Carter Verhaeghe duo at the top of the lineup is the go-to offensive unit, but is really a force at both ends. Everyone knows who those players are. But if you don’t pay much attention to the Panthers, the name Eetu Luostarinen may be a bit new.
Florida’s third-line centre, Luostarinen is a heavy six-foot-three, 190 pounds and drives play in the right direction. Though he did not record a point all series against Toronto, when Luostarinen was on the ice the Panthers outscored the Leafs 3-0. Despite getting more defensive zone starts than any other Panther, Luostarinen’s line was also on the ice for more scoring chances and high-danger opportunities against the Leafs than they gave up.
On the playoffs as a whole, Luostarinen has the best takeaways/giveaways ratio on the Panthers at even strength, and he’s one of the most used penalty killers on a unit that had a 75 per cent success rate last round. The 24-year-old doesn’t have to produce offence to be effective, but he can do that too — Luostarinen recorded five points in seven games against Boston in Round 1, and had a career year with 17 goals and 43 regular season points.
How the Hurricanes win this series:
Led by its defence, Carolina could frustrate Florida’s movements through the neutral zone and also give their forecheck a hard time with its ability to quickly turn around a breakout. It’s the system that will lead this team back to the Stanley Cup Final, so they need to stay within that and not allow Florida’s more chaotic approach to dictate the flow.
Carolina has used three goalies in these playoffs so far, but this appears to be Frederik Andersen’s net again. He stepped back in for Game 6 against the Islanders and has been 5-0 with a .931 save percentage since. Of course, he was pulled just over 20 minutes into Game 3 against New Jersey after allowing four goals on 12 shots, but recovered for a 6-1 win off 22 shots faced in the next game. He’ll be facing a red-hot Sergei Bobrovsky at the other end, so unless Florida’s $10 million man sags, there’s not much room for Andersen to stumble now.
But the question for Carolina always comes back to its offence, and if they have enough game breakers/snipers to get them to where they want to go. Well, so far in these playoffs scoring has not been too much of an issue for the Canes. At 3.64 goals per game, they are the fourth-highest scoring team overall, the second-highest scoring team left this post-season and they are the highest-event team left, too, with more shots created than anyone remaining. Sebastian Aho and Jesper Fast lead the way with five goals each, but eight Hurricanes players have at least three goals in 11 games. Meantime, the highest-scoring regular season blue line has generated seven goals total so far.
We know Florida will want to push the pace, be physical to try and create mistakes, and get in Andersen’s grill. The Canes have to stay within themselves, commit to their own system, and trust that it carries them through.
How the Panthers win this series:
They’ll want this series to be madness. Florida will be trying to play fast, something that neither Boston nor Toronto really solved (Toronto did slow Florida in Game 4, their only win in the series). If they are able to dictate the pace and break down systems, the Panthers will be in the sort of unpredictable space they crave.
The most important factor, though, is that Bobrovsky keeps his hot streak going. He’s enjoying the best stretch he’s had in Florida yet, stopping 94.3 per cent of all the shots Toronto threw at him last round and being the key difference in the series. But there are two sides to this coin. Bobrovsky started four (and played in five) games against Boston, but only stopped 89.1 per cent of all the shots he faced in that series, and finished with a goals-against average of just under four. That was closer to what we saw from him in the regular season, where Bobrovsky’s numbers were below league average.
Strong goaltending, relentless forechecking, overwhelming physicality and an unpredictable offensive attack are what will get Florida through this series. The Hurricanes are likely to challenge the Panthers’ way through the neutral zone more than either Boston or Toronto, but if this ends up being a free-flowing, back-and-forth series, the underdog Panthers would gain the edge.