In the final game of their season, the Washington Capitals outlasted Philadelphia, got help from some late-game Flyers chaos, and finally clinched a post-season berth in the campaign’s last gasp. Their reward? A best-of-seven-game series against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers.
The Round 1 appointment is a daunting one for Alex Ovechkin and Co. After steady progress into the league’s elite over the past couple years, the Rangers flexed their full potential in 2023-24. Now, a deep run appears to be on the horizon.
Both clubs are sure to be hungry for redemption when Game 1 arrives. The Capitals are returning to the dance after missing out in 2023. The absence seemed to signal the end of an era in Washington, especially after the club bowed out in the first round four straight times before that playoff miss.
For New York, the first task at hand is erasing the memory of their seven-game defeat to the rival New Jersey Devils in last year’s first round, and returning to the form that saw them reach the Conference Final back in 2022.
The Blueshirts figure to have all they need to get back there, and perhaps beyond, this time around. But after last year’s Round 1 embarrassment, they need no reminders of the risks of looking too far down the road.
Rangers Outlook: The Rangers have seemingly had all the pieces for a few years now. They have the dynamic offensive leaders up front, the dominant blue-line phenom leading the back end, the all-world goaltender in the cage, and enough depth around that core to step up in key moments. But this year, it’s all seemed to come together.
Up front, there was the career year from Artemi Panarin — a 120-point, near-50-goal outburst — that kicked the Rangers’ offence into overdrive. On the back end, there was Adam Fox, continuing to perform at an all-world level, amid growth from other young rearguards around him. Behind them, while Igor Shesterkin’s numbers dipped below the level he’s proven capable of, there’s little doubt about his talent — and the resurgent play of Jonathan Quick has given the team a solid fallback option.
Add in GM Chris Drury’s deadline additions — namely forwards Alex Wennberg and Jack Roslovic — and the club looks quicker, and more offensively potent, than the already-dangerous version we’ve seen in the past.
Still, much like last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, and the 2023 Rangers themselves, all that elite potential will matter little if they don’t take care of business in Round 1.
Capitals Outlook: There’s no denying the Capitals are heavily overmatched in this series. Their opponents look deeper, younger, and hungrier to live up to their lofty expectations. The Caps enter the post-season with not only the worst goal differential of any playoff team, but the sixth-worst in the league — 11 teams finished above them in this regard, and saw their seasons end at Game 82.
But Washington would hardly be the first underdog to upset a Presidents’ Trophy behemoth in Round 1. We need only rewind one year to see how wildly things could play out.
It’s safe to assume seasoned Cup-winning veterans like Ovechkin, John Carlson and TJ Oshie won’t be intimidated by New York’s lofty numbers. And if the underdogs need something to hang their hat on, it’ll be the fact that during the season series they weren’t exactly run out of the building by these Rangers. The clubs split the four-game regular season series with two wins apiece, each taking their home games. The two even finished level in goals, with both scoring nine and allowing nine in the four-game stretch.
That doesn’t mean this series will be anything close to a 50-50 toss-up. But it does mean the Caps should have some belief to hold on to, that the door might be cracked open just a bit, and that they might just be able to find a way through.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Rangers X-Factor: Panarin and his MVP-calibre campaign have been key to the Rangers’ monster 2023-24 effort, and the club’s Round 1 success will go as Panarin goes. But if we’re looking beyond the All-Stars dotted throughout the Blueshirts’ roster, what about the young talent patrolling the ice opposite Panarin when their line hops over the boards?
Amid the collection of career years that we saw from Rangers standouts this season was the significant step forward taken by young Alexis Lafreniere. Still just 22 years old, the 2020 No. 1 pick has taken his fair share of criticism during three middling seasons on Broadway. But in Year 4, Lafreniere seemed to build on the glimpses he showed earlier, finishing the campaign just shy of 30 goals and 60 points. Most importantly for the Rangers, though, is the fact that he’s been rolling recently, as the club’s geared up for the post-season — over the final month of the season, Lafreniere potted 10 goals and 17 points in 16 games, second-most among all Rangers forwards, behind only Panarin.
The expectations placed upon Lafreniere have weighed heavy since he debuted back in 2020. Four years later, it seems he’s found his footing in the league and on this team. Continuing that fine form past Game 82, when the real tests begin, would be a fitting way to truly announce his arrival.
Capitals X-Factor: Similarly, all eyes will be on the Caps’ veterans when Game 1 arrives, and that usual crew — Ovechkin, Carlson, Oshie and Tom Wilson — will surely play a key role in the club flying high or falling short when all is said and done. But the Caps don’t get back to the playoffs in 2024 without Dylan Strome putting in the standout year he has.
The 27-year-old’s paced his team from start to finish this season — critically, he’s been a point-per-game player since the All-Star break, playing an essential role in keeping his Caps in the playoff picture. And in keeping Ovechkin scoring, too, after a slow start derailed the famed sniper’s numbers.
It’s been a long road for Strome since those high-flying Erie Otters days. After stops in Arizona and Chicago, he’s found new life in a Caps sweater, and is thriving. He’s yet to truly get a taste of the playoffs — aside from a nine-game spin in the 2020 bubble — but if Strome can continue to raise his game as he has during these past few months, he’ll give his Caps a chance.
POSSIBLE GAME 1 LINEUPS
New York Rangers
Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Jack Roslovic
Artemi Panarin-Vincent Trocheck-Alexis Lafreniere
Will Cuylle-Alex Wennberg-Kaapo Kakko
Jimmy Vesey-Barclay Goodrow-Matt Rempe
Ryan Lindgren-Adam Fox
K’Andre Miller-Braden Schneider
Erik Gustafsson-Jacob Trouba
Igor Shesterkin
Washington Capitals
Alex Ovechkin-Connor McMichael-TJ Oshie
Aliaksei Protas-Dylan Strome-Tom Wilson
Max Pacioretty-Hendrix Lapierre-Sonny Milano
Beck Malenstyn-Nic Dowd-Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Martin Fehervary-John Carlson
Trevor van Riemsdyk – Vincent Iorio
Alexander Alexeyev-Dylan McIlrath
Charlie Lindgren
