WINNIPEG — Which version of the Winnipeg Jets will we see this year?
Will it be a magical run like in 2017-18, when they reached the Western Conference Final? A complete dud of a year like the 2021-22 season, which ended without a taste of the playoffs? Or a disappointing and painful first-round exit, like we saw each of the last two years?
The journey to answering that question starts Wednesday night.
But first, these five questions are at the forefront for the Jets as they embark on the 2024-25 season.
Will Winnipeg adjust Hellebuyck’s workload?
As always, Winnipeg’s season hinges on Connor Hellebuyck.
The “As long as you have Connor Hellebuyck, you have a chance to contend,” trope is recycled annually by pundits when sizing up Winnipeg’s Stanley Cup aspirations.
The two-time Vezina trophy winner is the last of a dying breed — a netminder who continuously shoulders nearly 80 per cent of his team’s games and posts elite results. Since 2017-18, no goalie has played more games (423) and faced more shots than Hellebuyck (13,147). And it’s not even close.
That’s a lot of wear and tear for any netminder, even one as prolific as Hellebuyck. Can the Jets reasonably expect Hellebuyck to dominate in the playoffs after playing 60-plus regular season games? One ought to think fatigue played a part in him posting a .878 save percentage in his 10 playoff starts over the last two years. And given that he’ll probably suit up for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-off in February, Hellebuyck’s 2024-25 regular season workload is going to be heavier than usual.
But the real question is — would Hellebuyck be receptive to taking the odd game or two off, even if it’s not the second half of a back-to-back, from time to time?
The 31-year-old’s seven-year contract extension kicks in this season. And he’s not getting any younger.
Can Kaapo Kahkonen be a serviceable backup?
Head coach Scott Arniel isn’t going to be comfortable giving Hellebuyck extra nights off if Kaapo Kahkonen can’t be trusted.
The 28-year-old Finnish netminder’s career stats are nothing to write home about — registering a .899 save percentage through 139 NHL games — but he’s had some encouraging moments. Khakonen made his debut with the Minnesota Wild, posting a .907 save percentage in his first 54 games. He ultimately faded into the background once he joined the San Jose Sharks midway through the 2021-22 season, registering an .892 save percentage in 79 games across the last two-and-a-half years.
But unbeknownst to many, Khakonen looked pretty darn sharp during a brief stint with the New Jersey Devils last year. He posted a .923 save percentage in six contests — four of which came against playoff teams.
Subtract that period where he was lit up like a Christmas tree in San Jose and Khakonen has been pretty decent at the NHL level, tallying a .908 save percentage in 60 career games split between Minnesota and New Jersey.
Not a bad guy to take a flier on, especially on a one-year, $1 million contract.
Will Scheifele and Connor elevate their defensive games?
The Jets are asking Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor to make an impact in unfamiliar territory.
Arniel has placed his two-star forwards on the team’s second-penalty kill unit. While the move adds a different layer to their penalty kill, it also serves a dual purpose — it forces the duo to be more defensively conscious.
Dating back to the 2021-22 season, Scheifele and Connor rank in the fourth and eighth percentile, respectively, in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 among forwards that played at least 100 minutes, according to NaturalStatTrick.
Winnipeg’s two most decorated forwards are extremely cerebral. And their experience on the other side of the special teams equation will be a huge help.
“As a power-play guy, you kind of know what the other team is trying to accomplish,” Scheifele told reporters last week. “So, you have kind of an idea of what their routes might be, what their options might be, and being able to jump on that opportunity.”
Will Perfetti, Samberg and Heinola take the next step?
Maybe general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff wasn’t talking about Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov and Elias Salomonsson when he spoke back on July 1 about opportunities being up for grabs.
“We talk about roles and guys taking on responsibility, young guys stepping up — we still have Dylan Samberg jumping into the number four (defencemen) spot. We’ve got Cole Perfetti that we’re expecting a lot from. We’ve got Ville Heinola, when he gets back here,” Arniel told reporters on Monday.
Touche.
Samberg, 25, is probably a little too old to be considered a ‘young guy’ but he’s played just 156 career NHL games and has predominantly played in a bottom-pairing role. Until now. His emergence alongside Neal Pionk on the team’s second pair is the x-factor to Winnipeg offsetting the loss of Brenden Dillon.
Perfetti, 22, is coming off a roller-coaster sophomore NHL season where went from being a top-six regular, to bottom-six forward to eventually being a press-box regular at the tail-end of the year and for most of the playoffs. A left-shot, he is situated on his off-side adjacent to Nikolaj Ehlers to start the season. Perfetti solidifying himself as a top-six forward is the key to ensuring the Jets’ second line isn’t just ‘Ehlers & the other guys,’ but rather, a formidable top-six line in of itself.
Heinola, 23, seems to have the inside track on the team’s sixth defencemen spot once he’s healthy again. The Jets’ 2019 first-round pick has yet to get much runway at the NHL level but the smooth-skating, puck-moving defencemen could add some flavour to the team’s third pair alongside Colin Miller. The Jets could use another capable puck-mover on the backend. And if Heinola is an absolute stud, adding a player of his ilk to the top four would be a win (although it’s unlikely Arniel would give him that role over the bigger-bodied Samberg, no matter how well he plays).
Will Nikolaj Ehlers sign a new contract?
Ehlers isn’t saying a peep about his contract situation. While Cheveldayoff has pulled a rabbit out of a hat before with the Scheifele and Hellebuyck signings from last year, an Ehlers extension feels even more unlikely than the latter two’s extensions did at the time. The 28-year-old is closing in on a decade in Manitoba’s capital that’s seen him rarely get first-line usage. It’s hard to imagine him resisting the temptation of being wined and dined in free agency.
If the Jets are comfortably near or at the top of the central division, they’re obviously not trading Ehlers — but what if they’re in a race for a wild-card spot?
Jets owner Mark Chipman has made it clear that the Jets won’t be rebuilding, however, if the team knows Ehlers is good-as-gone and they’re not comfortably in a playoff spot— will they keep him and let him walk away for nothing?
Food for thought: In the event, the Jets are still relatively in the mix for a playoff spot, the emergence of Brad Lambert could make the Jets more comfortable with moving Ehlers mid-year. Winnipeg needs to sell tickets and while Ehlers is a proven commodity, the allure of Lambert’s potential could bring more fans in the building. There’s a lot of people in town that want to see more youth on the roster.