10 'first impressions' of the 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs

I’m sure that five years somebody will show me this column and I’ll regret having made a big deal out of it, but I gotta say it: It’s great to watch a team that isn’t selling “promise” or “development” and all that matters is wins and losses.

That’s takeaway one here.

Not because it ensures the Leafs are going to be good necessarily, but because this Toronto Maple Leafs team is done with “lessons” and “moral victories.” This fully permits us to excoriate them for performances like the ones they put forth in their season opener in Montreal.

There’s no “good learning experience” after that one, they just stunk and it stunk and it’ll stink until they heap enough victories on top of it to dampen the stench.

But with that – with all the lessons of many seasons together past as a core, you come to know what to expect from them sometimes. This was exactly what Nick and I said would happen against Washington on Real Kyper and Bourne – that was the type of game where the Leafs typically put forth a great showing, and they did.

(The recipe for a great Leafs game: coming off a borderline embarrassing showing, where the stars didn’t pile up points, against a team they expect to be good that has their attention.)

In thinking about this, I became curious how old the Leafs really are, and it turns out … quite. Elite Prospects has them as the 7th oldest team in the league this season (and they really only have one “old” guy that pulls the number up in Mark Giordano).

You’ll also note there’s a lot of good teams on that list, which makes sense. Older teams are typically “win now” groups. (Just because this stuff is interesting: every team in the league averages 6-foot-1 or 6-foot-2 but the Minnesota Wild at 6-feet even, but the Leafs are 27th in the league in weight, over 10 pounds on average lighter than the league’s heaviest team, the Tampa Bay Lightning.)

Goalies are who we thought they were

Cue the “They are who we thoughts they were” video. Matt Murray looked like exactly the guy you thought the Leafs were getting, a guy who’s struggled a bit with his mobility and glove in recent years, and he didn’t give them enough saves to steal a game in his first showing.

Ilya Samsonov was … fine, in his first appearance. He looked like an NHL goalie, but not a particularly remarkable one. Y’know, kinda like he’s been.

Of course, we’ll give them a pass as new guys on a new team in their first games and with their respective futures in the league on the line. Nobody would’ve been comfortable in those circumstances, and so it’s not fair to judge them yet.

But the “first impression” is just what was expected: The Leafs are going to have to out-play teams and earn every victory they get this season, because it’s unlikely their goalie tandem — as currently constructed — is going to steal them many points.

John Tavares looks good

After Montreal, a complete player-by-player autopsy left me with about three Leafs’ players I thought were not outright bad and Tavares was the only forward on the list (the Rielly-Brodie pair was fine too). He had some real pop in his legs in game two, prompting me to tweet my theory that maybe his kids are just finally old enough to sleep through the night, and that will help him this year?

Whatever it is, it would be great news for the Leafs if the much-dreaded “decline of Tavares” (much dreaded because he’s paid a lot) didn’t start this season, but rather at some other date TBD down the road.

Muzzin and Holl are at least a mild concern

If Rielly and Brodie are the top pair that’s going to face top competition and play big minutes for the Leafs, the team needs another duo they can throw over the boards and feel good about against whatever the opposition’s next-best group is. Further to that, with Rielly’s penchant for offence, they need a duo they can trust to prioritize defending which Muzzin and Holl do.

In theory.

The problem is, if they’re both a step slower and can’t thrive in that usage, then the team is in trouble given there’s no obvious next pair to step in and do it. They looked much better in game two, but their showing in game one has them on my radar, like when your dentist goes “that’s not a cavity yet, but we’re keeping an eye on that spot.”

Sandin starting slow

I am genuinely surprised how much missing camp, even a portion of it, seems to hurt players.

It’s like missing the part of treadmill running where you work up to speed. Asking guys to jump on at what will be their consistent running pace almost always involves some stumbling. That (combined with playing his off-side?) has made for a couple toe-pick quality games thus far from the Leafs talented young D-man. They need him to find a gear beyond what he’s previously shown, and thus far he’s still lagging behind that.

The speed of the bottom six is a positive

I had two separate people mention this to me, and I like the observation: The Leafs bottom six, and particularly their fourth line, is much faster than previous iterations during the Matthews/Marner years.

The line of Zach Aston-Reese – David Kampf – Nicolas Aube-Kubel hasn’t had a pile of success yet, but they’ve done what’s been asked of them: They start in the D-zone, they skate and they work, and they hit people.

Denis Malgin is an excellent skater

This comment is separate from a lot of the commentary I’ve made on Malgin, which in sum is basically: “I don’t think he’s a part of the solution they’ve been searching for,” but!

But. Boy, is he a delightful skater to watch. He moves like a fancy remote control car, darting up to speed immediately and changing directions quickly. That’s fun to watch, from a skill perspective. (Now, bring me Nick Robertson please.)

Calle Jarnkrok is my 2009 VW Jetta

He is fine. He is reliable, he gets you from A to B, nobody sees him and goes “wow” but they also don’t say “well that sucks.” Nobody expects anything of them, and they don’t let you down. At some point they’ll break down I’m sure, but not yet.

They do the job as long as you don’t ask too much of them, and the Leafs seem to be using him appropriately … like me and my car. (I cannot imagine a more sure-fire jinx for a car breakdown than the above paragraph.)

Toughness by committee

There will come a time – because hockey is hockey and tempers can flare – where the Leafs will have to demonstrate a willingness to stick up for each other.

Eighty-two games is a lot if opponents believe they won’t get push back and they can take runs at their stars. You already saw Michael Bunting get into it with Garnet Hathaway who took some liberties on Auston Matthews, but that’s not a fight a guy Bunting’s size wants. We’ll see if the team is able to rally when it’s time, because there will definitely be one.

And finally,

Jekyll and Hyde PP

It’s so confusing that this team’s powerplay can look like they did on opening night, then like they did in game two, which was much, much better.

This is another spot to watch this season – can they find some other ways to be effective when the things they want to do (make seam passes and let Matthews and Willy rip it) are taken away? Come playoffs, it’s always been an issue. Better start looking for solutions sooner than later.

A win and a loss to start the season, which was not impossible to see. The order they came, well, that was a surprise. But knowing the Leafs as so many of us have come to … maybe it shouldn’t have been.