10 things to keep an eye on in Canada-USA 4 Nations Final

TORONTO — Hockey is a low-scoring game, so it’s not always easy to tell who’s got the upper hand. Plus, with the way momentum works in hockey, that “upper hand” can flip in an instant.

But if you watch enough of these big games, there are patterns. And given that I expect Canada-USA, Part Deux, to be another low-scoring affair, I thought I’d give viewers a few things to keep an eye on to get a sense for how the game is going.

Below are thoughts on some of the big names, and big scenarios, that will decide the first (and only) 4 Nations Face-Off champion.

You can watch the game live Thursday on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+, with coverage beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT.

Keep an eye out for the spacing on Canada’s two best forwards 

I think you have to start here. Losing Charlie McAvoy hurts the U.S., as it's suddenly not a very physical back-end. Jaccob Slavin has an exceptional stick but has a Lady Byng Trophy for a reason. Jake Sanderson, Adam Fox and Zach Werenski are not bruisers. If Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon feel comfortable repeatedly dashing into the slot, it’s going to open up a lot of room for their linemates. 

Keep an eye on Cale Makar 

In Game 1 against the U.S., the Canadians had trouble getting pucks to the inside and through to Connor Hellebuyck. But if you watch that last game back, plenty of forwards got to the net, they just couldn’t get the puck there with them. So, how are Makar’s legs early? Does he have jump? He’s deceptive enough to make fakes at the blue line, to walk the line and pump shots, and to create lanes. If Makar looks good, bet on him getting a puck through in a big spot for Canada.

Keep an eye on Brady Tkachuk 

In a draft of players around the league I’d start a team with, I have Brady Tkachuk way higher than most. But my criticism of his game is that it’s immature. He gets caught up in the chest-puffing machismo of the game, when you’d rather see him play the dangerous brand of hard hockey he showed against Finland. Is he running around after guys and being a sideshow? Or is he concentrating on playing? For a player who’s always engaged, it’s not terrible for Canada if he’s engaged in the wrong stuff.

Keep an eye out for a tight whistle, which would help Canada 

First off, let’s take a second to appreciate the officiating in this tournament. We only notice it when it’s bad and, well, it’s been great. Outside the fighting majors, Canada has taken three minor penalties in three games (and is three-for-three on kills). The Canadians have been on the power play for a whopping four minutes and 12 seconds (one-for-three). I expect this to get tested a bit more in the final. There’s going to be desperation, which leads to last-second grabs and holds. And combine that with the refs being on high alert for “fireworks,” and I expect more special teams. 

If it’s a game where the officials use their whistles, it’ll be a slight advantage for Canada, who has the world’s three best players in McDavid, MacKinnon and Makar. 

Keep an eye out for goalie nerves 

Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the world, Jordan Binnington is not. Binnington has a reputation as a big-game goalie, while Hellebuyck does not. Calm and composed goalies don’t over-push past shots. They control rebounds, catch pucks and don’t seem frantic. So, let’s keep an eye out early for how these two react to the initial frenzies around them. It might give us a clue into how they’re feeling and, in turn, what to expect in the biggest moments.

Keep an eye on Auston Matthews 

His first game against Canada was more like Jordan Staal than Auston Matthews, in that he blocked shots and backchecked and defended like hell for the U.S., but wasn’t an offensive threat. He’s needed time off this year for what’s believed to be a sore back. He missed a game this week for what is apparently a different issue. If he’s fresh and feeling better, has he got more jump? If he’s barreling through the neutral zone early, that’s a sign he’ll be dangerous all night, and the U.S. team will need him to answer the top Canadian forwards.

Keep an eye on how heavily the stars are used

It has to be exceedingly tempting for Canadian coach Jon Cooper to put McDavid or MacKinnon on the ice for every second of the hockey game. And, with so much talent on the roster, they’ve not played massive minutes in this event. Plus, they’re coming off a few days' worth of rest, so they could handle a bigger workload.

But if the game is close, you don’t want them to have been leaned on too heavily. In the final, overtime will be five-on-five until somebody scores, and this game has the potential to go long. How much gas will Cooper and the Canadian coaches make sure is left in the tanks of their top threats?

Keep an eye out for the next layer of scorers 

The U.S. put the boots to Finland, but it scored just twice against Canada (plus an empty-netter), and once against Sweden. Beyond the Tkachuks, who are gobbling up the headlines, the Americans' top offensive players aren’t exactly physical players, just mostly slick — think Jack Hughes, Jack Eichel, Jake Guentzel and Kyle Connor. Those guys can get bogged down in a game where nobody wants to make a mistake, so they err on the side of heavy defence. But the guys who go park around the nets tend to find greasy goals. Think Chris Kreider, Brock Nelson, Matt Boldy. It’s the blue-paint guys who can sneak up on you. 

For Canada, that means Sam Bennett, Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel types. It wouldn’t be shocking to get a big moment from a 12th or 13th forward.

Keep an eye out for Canadian experience

The Canadian roster has won a combined 20 Stanley Cups to the Americans' three. They’ve played in the big moments, felt the pressure and persevered. Sidney Crosby is tied for the tournament lead in points, and has the ability to calm the troops and not get lost in the moments when they come (as we saw when he iced the Finland game). If there are big mistakes in the final game, Canada's experience factor makes it feel less likely it'll come from their side. 

And, finally ... 

Keep an eye on that start

Obviously. In Canada, it felt like their opponents had to weather the storm before playing their way back into it (which both Sweden and the U.S. accomplished). Do the players still prioritize having a punch-off, or will they skip sending the messages in favour of trying to score goals? 

We won’t see three fights in nine seconds, but I’m still unsure how the teams are prioritizing that aspect of the game at this point. Either way, Thursday's 4 Nations Face-Off final is going to be must-see TV.