10 thoughts on the Maple Leafs' acquisition of Matt Murray

Can Matt Murray be the goalie who takes this Toronto Maple Leafs core past the first round and deeper into the Stanley Cup Playoffs?

Is it at least a smart gamble?

10 thoughts on the Leafs' acquisition of Murray:

1.) Thinking about what the Leafs are probably thinking

Let me take a stab at what Kyle Dubas and his staff might say about this deal:

Matt Murray has won two Stanley Cups and is just 28 years old. Petr Mrazek didn’t have the same pedigree or experience and was older, and same goes for a lot of the other available goalies.

The contract price ($4.687 million) is in the ballpark of Mrazek’s deal (it’s more expensive, but within a million dollars) and I assume they think Murray has had bad injury luck and has been playing behind a brutal team in the Ottawa Senators. With a slightly improved Sens team last year, Murray was a lot better. The bet, then, is that if he’s healthy, he’ll be good, and if he’s not, you put him on LTIR and you’re right back to where you’re started.

2.) I still really dislike the bet

Over the past three years Murray’s been below a .900 save percentage, and that’s the very first most important question here: is this guy still NHL starter good? Or even NHL tandem-good? I’ve seen enough Sens hockey the past few years to be uncertain about both questions.

Our own Elliotte Friedman reported that Murray isn’t yet cleared to play from his most recent concussion, of which he’s had at least four.

The Leafs don’t just need good goaltending, they’re going to need great goaltending to get out of the Atlantic Division. The red flags on this one, they’re everywhere.

3.) Dubas is either winning or going down with His People, which you kinda have to respect?

Dubas just promoted three people to AGM, all of whom got their first pro jobs through him. Murray is yet another player from the Soo that he’s brought in. His people from there are littered throughout the Leafs organization. It’s almost as if all the outside ideas and theories finally drove him nuts, and he’s just decided to go ahead with all the people he’s chosen in the past.

It's his people or bust, so win or lose at least he can sleep well knowing he went about it his own way.

4.) The level of hubris in that line of thinking is a problem

I don’t know that this point needs much explaining: the Soo thing is a little ridiculous now. To believe that all the best people are the people you’ve previously met, or had some tie to, feels weird for someone who was sold as the “new ideas” guy at the start of his tenure. It’s great to like and trust those you’ve come across. But to lean so heavily on them implies you’re missing something in all the other people out there.

5.) Why would the Leafs not say “50% retention or keep him,” given how pressed up against the cap they are?

What good are third and seventh round picks in a now-or-never season? Everything they need is salary cap space this upcoming season, and if they couldn’t get it from the Sens in the form of salary retention, then maybe that’s a sign the deal isn’t one worth doing? (Could a third team have taken those picks to retain another quarter of the contract?)

If you’re going to bet on a guy for a bounce-back, Murray isn’t a bad candidate. You just want to be finding value when that happens. And at only 25 per cent retention you’re barely finding any even if everything goes right.

6.) Respect for what Murray has done

I don’t want this to come off as “Matt Murray is bad,” because the man has a past worthy of respect. I’ve spent 24 hours expressing skepticism in this decision, but I recognize Murray is by all accounts a good dude who works hard. But when you take on a contract you’re betting on what’s coming next, and that’s what I’ve been going off here. It’s tough to find evidence past the idea that they know and like the player and believe that great seasons are coming for him.

7.) What has to go right for this bet to work

It’s a gamble that the guy will stay healthy, and then it’s another gamble that he reverts back to the 24-year-old version of his playing career. Two big “ifs,” aren’t they? Anything less in either case and you’re stuck paying an awful lot to have fixed zero problems, let alone the most important position.

(Something I want to rail against: there are some who say it’s impossible to know who’s going to be a good goalie these days. There are still some other Leafs fans saying they don’t need great goaltending to win. In either case, maybe don’t pay for it, if that’s your belief? I’ll also add, “don’t worry about goaltending” is one crazy belief, if you’ve watched much hockey … ever.)

8.) Guys with a higher AAV

At the time of this writing only 18 NHL goalies carry a higher AAV than the one the Leafs will be paying Murray (and that'll likely be 20 by the time the UFA period is done). That’s legit starter money. He’d need to play 50-plus times at an above league-average rate to justify that.

9.) There weren’t many options, but that’s a self-made predicament

Dubas isn’t taking over some other organization here, which is why “Well, yeah, but what other goalies were available?” is a tough argument to swallow. They didn’t draft/develop a goalie, and they had both Freddy Andersen (who was excellent this past season at $4.5 million) and Jack Campbell here, who they couldn’t get re-signed. So they made their own bed.

Other teams traded for rights (Ville Husso and Vitek Vanecek) which the Leafs were allowed to do, and chose not to. They didn’t wake up in this situation, they put themselves in it.

10.) Prediction time

I bet Matt Murray is kinda OK – like a .900 to .905 guy - but doesn’t provide value for his cap hit. He’s a guy who’s been on the wrong side of league average save percentage in four of the past five seasons, and he’s going to come with a top-20 cap hit, which is why I’m skeptical.

Maybe there’s something here the Leafs can do if it isn’t working out, maybe they can sell him off to someone at the deadline by attaching assets the way they were attached in his acquisition. But it feels like that scenario – “How do we get rid of this deal and find someone else” – is far more likely than “Matt Murray returns to form and leads the Leafs beyond their previous frustrations.”