20 Fantasy Thoughts: Are we seeing the first signs of decline from Ovechkin? 

Perhaps no player has benefitted more from a change of scenery this year than Alex DeBrincat.  

The Detroit Red Wings just seem to fit his game so much better than the Ottawa Senators did and the connection between DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin has been off the charts. The duo have combined for 17 points in five games and Larkin has assisted on three of DeBrincat’s five goals.  

After only scoring 27 goals a year ago, there was some uncertainty around whether DeBrincat could get back to being a 40-goal scorer, likely making him slip in a draft or two. It’s clear now that DeBrincat not only has a chance to get back to 40 goals, but possibly beyond.  

Could he hit 50? 

1. I’m trying to figure out why Travis Konecny went so low in drafts this year. He had 31 goals in 60 games a season ago and he already has five in 2023-24. Konecny’s shot volume is also very good and he averages almost a hit per game, making it all the more puzzling that he was a 12th-round pick on average in fantasy drafts.   

2. Teuvo Teravainen is emerging as a major bounce-back option so far this season. He actually scored on four of his first five shots this season and is playing nearly four minutes a game on the power play. There were a lot of people scared off of Teravainen in drafts after his rough 2022-23 campaign, but he has scored more than 60 points four times and more than 70 points once, so the offensive track record is there. He could be a difference-maker for your squad if he keeps this up.  

3. If you need help on defence, give Jamie Drysdale a look if his injury isn’t too serious. Drysdale has points in his first two games and is on the top pairing for the Anaheim Ducks, getting big minutes and good power play time. He’s definitely someone who’s going to have more long-term value, but in deep one-year leagues and at only 14 per cent rostered, Drysdale might be able to help you right now.  

4. My fears about Chandler Stephenson this year so far seem to be unfounded. I was concerned that a big chunk of Stephenson’s production last season came while playing with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, meaning he may get lost in the shuffle after Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault and Ivan Barbashev formed a trio in the playoffs. Stephenson, though, is still getting time with Stone and top power play time, powering him to seven points thus far. As long as Stone stays healthy, I think Stephenson will be fine.  

5. Logan Cooley has been as advertised so far, recording four points in his first five games, all on the power play. He’s looked very good and the Arizona Coyotes are suddenly an exciting offensive team, with a number of fantasy-relevant players. Cooley is also taking draws, which is an added benefit if your league tracks faceoff wins. I’d look to grab him now as his rostered percentage has been growing rapidly.  

6. Timo Meier finally delivered Friday night. The New Jersey Devils forward hadn’t picked up a point yet, hadn’t recorded a hit in two games and had been held to a single shot in two of his first three contests before picking up a pair of assists against the New York Islanders. Meier actually got benched for almost the entire third period in a game earlier this week. He hadn’t been playing with Jesper Bratt or Jack Hughes until Friday, so the bump up to the top group did wonders for Meier. Hopefully, he stays there.  

7. The Connor Brown experiment with Connor McDavid appears to be over after just two games. It’s unfortunate because Brown could’ve been a great depth pickup, but he managed only two shots and no points in his short stint with McDavid. They could always go back to it at some point, though for now, the Oilers appear to be loading up their top line to get the offence going. It’s going to be tough to hold onto Brown if he isn’t in the top six.  

8. There won’t be too many San Jose Sharks worth rostering this season, but Filip Zadina could be one, at least in the short term. Zadina has two goals in five games and has a decent shot volume. His ice-time has been a bit sporadic and he’s being shuffled up and down the lineup, though Zadina is making the most of it. 

9. One of the reasons Zadina could be a shrewd pickup is the Sharks are one of a handful of teams that play four times next week. I always like adding a player on a four-game schedule because of the volume he’ll give you and it allows you a decent sample size to decide if you want to keep them long-term. Conversely, if you are thinking of dropping someone, it’s good to do it when that player only plays once or twice in a week to maximize your games played. Arizona, Chicago, Florida, Nashville, Dallas and Tampa all play just twice next week, so see who you have on your roster that may be a drop candidate from those squads.  

In one-year leagues, Lukas Reichel might be creeping into drop territory. He’s not getting much time with Connor Bedard and hasn’t picked up a point yet. If his deployment changes you could always re-add him.  

10. I’ve never seen a situation quite like Josh Norris’ to start the season. Norris was easily a mid-round pick heading into the campaign but plummeted down draft boards when reports surfaced he may not be ready to start the season. The uncertainty and murkiness of when he would be ready, combined with him missing most of the 2022-23 campaign scared a lot of people off.  

Norris ended up with an ADP of about the 16^th or 17^th round depending on the size of your league, which could be an absolute steal. As it turned out, he only missed a week and scored twice in his first game back. I ended up grabbing him myself in the 12^th round, a point where I just couldn’t pass him up no matter what the outcome was. The reward far outweighed the risk at that stage.  

Moves like drafting Norris late and stashing him can often lead to you winning your league. He’s a player that has 30-35 goal potential and can get you around 70 points if healthy, so that’s incredible value for a late-round pick. Sometimes you just have to be willing to take the risk.  

11. Tough break for Gabriel Vilardi. The Winnipeg Jets forward is going to miss four to six weeks with a knee injury after getting great deployment and posting nine shots in his first two games. The points were coming.  

12. It hasn’t been a great start all around for the Tampa Bay Lightning this year, but at least there are some encouraging signs from Tanner Jeannot. After only managing four points in 20 games last season when the Lightning acquired him, Jeannot already has three points in 2023-24. Jeannot never has a problem filling the hits category and if he could just recapture some of the goal-scoring he displayed for the Nashville Predators, he’d be a must-roster. Until he shows some more offensive consistency, Jeannot is really just a hits specialist.  

13. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, there’s nobody better than Joel Eriksson Ek for category coverage. Case and point, in Tuesday’s game against the Montreal Canadiens, Eriksson Ek delivered two goals, two power play points, 16 penalty minutes, four shots, three hits and 11 faceoff wins. He does a little bit of everything.  

14. Chris Kreider looks to have found his goal-scoring touch again. After netting more than 50 in 2021-22, Kreider regressed to only 36 a season ago. Now he’s already notched four in just five games. There’s no way Kreider keeps up this pace, but even if he can get back to 40-plus goals this year, that’s a big win if you’re rostering him. 

15. If you’re looking for help at forward, an under-the-radar waiver add could be Trevor Moore. He has goals in three of five games and at least three shots in four contests so far this season. Moore is a very versatile player who can help you in a lot of areas and has sneaky value for hits.  

16. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is filling the void left by the injured Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour. Ekman-Larsson is getting massive ice time, skating more than 25 minutes in three of his five games and handling top power play duties. He’s also filling the shots and blocks categories and has found the scoresheet in two of his past three games now. I think most people assumed Gustav Forsling would be the defenseman to roster while Montour and Ekblad are out, but it’s clearly Ekman-Larsson.  

17. It was almost certain that Linus Ullmark was going to regress this season based on last year’s incredible numbers, but so far that hasn’t been the case. In two games thus far, Ullmark has conceded just two goals and won both contests. Granted, those starts were against the Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks, so surely as the season wears on, he’ll have trouble keeping up with last year’s pace. For now, though, Ullmark appears to still be in top form. 

18. After starting off slow with just three goals in their first four games, the Seattle Kraken erupted for seven against the Carolina Hurricanes this week. That’s great news if you have Vince Dunn, who picked up three points against the Canes and now has five on the year. Many had Dunn pegged as a regression candidate after 64 points a year ago with a bit of an inflated shooting percentage, but his strong start should put those rostering him at ease. Dunn’s shooting percentage wasn’t crazy high in 2022-23 and if the Kraken are one of the league’s top-scoring teams again, he should be ok.  

19. There are major fantasy implications from the Rasmus Andersson hit on Patrik Laine the other night. Andersson is set to miss the next four games with a suspension and who knows how long Laine will be sidelined due to injury from the illegal check. There may even be some people, like yours truly, who have both Andersson and Laine on their squad. It only takes one incident in a split second to throw your roster into complete chaos.  

20. Could we be seeing early signs of decline from Alexander Ovechkin? The Washington Capitals sniper hasn’t scored yet this season and recently went back-to-back games without a shot for the first time in his career. It’s still early, of course, but even last year Ovechkin failed to hit 300 shots for the first time in his career over a full season.  

What might be more concerning is the Capitals don’t look strong at all out of the gates. Washington doesn’t have much young talent for Ovechkin to play with and the team appears slow overall. Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie look nothing like the players they once were and Evgeny Kuznetsov is inconsistent. They are stuck in perhaps the worst spot to be in, not bad enough to be in contention for the first overall pick and not good enough to compete for the playoffs.  

Adding to Ovechkin’s slow start is the Caps power play, which has yet to find the back of the net. Now a big part of that is Ovechkin obviously not scoring, but when the rest of your team isn’t that threatening, it’s suddenly easier for opponents to focus on stopping Ovechkin’s patented one-timer on the man advantage. Still, new head coach Spencer Carbery was in charge of the Toronto Maple Leafs' number-two-ranked unit a year ago, so there’s reason to believe the Caps can turn it around.  

There’s no way you can write Ovechkin off just yet and he might even make an interesting buy-low candidate if someone is ready to give up on him, but you can’t ignore the fact that he is 38 with a lot of tough miles on his body. Everyone starts to slide at some point and Ovechkin has held decline off longer than most, so if he’s still a big part of your fantasy roster, you’ll have to hope he can fend off Father Time for at least another year.