20 Fantasy Thoughts: Can Dustin Wolf claim the Flames crease next season?

The most anticipated day in the hockey world this spring has nothing to do with the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

We’re finally going to find out where Connor Bedard is headed when the NHL Draft lottery is held on May 8. One lucky franchise is going to see its trajectory change very quickly, and whoever gets the right to draft Bedard is going to cause a ripple effect in the hockey world.

Bedard is going to immediately lift the value of those he plays with and his landing spot might even impact a few of your keeper decisions this summer. Anaheim, Columbus and Chicago have the best odds to secure Bedard, but anything can happen. Even the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 1.5 per cent chance to win the lottery. Could you imagine Bedard and Sidney Crosby teaming up for the next few years?

If you’re in a keeper league where there are no limits on how long you can keep a player, Bedard definitely has a case to be the No. 1 pick in your draft. Players like Bedard don’t come around very often.

1. We saw a number of goalies, such as Pyotr Kochetkov, Stuart Skinner, Pheonix Copley and Filip Gustavsson, make a huge impact this season, even though they weren’t on the radar of many fantasy teams around draft time. I wonder if Dustin Wolf is going to follow a similar path next season. He’s coming off two stellar season in the AHL, so it wouldn’t make much sense for the Calgary Flames to send him back, and they certainly could use some help between the pipes. Jacob Markstrom isn’t going anywhere, but maybe Calgary considers moving Dan Vladar to clear a path for Wolf. If coach Darryl Sutter is going to continue to lean heavily on Markstrom, it doesn't make sense for the Flames to pay Vladar $2.2 million a year when Wolf could probably do the same job for much cheaper.

Vladar didn’t make the most of his opportunities, but if Wolf can play at a higher level, he’s going to give Sutter more to think about and perhaps make it more difficult for him to keep falling back on Markstrom. Plus, the Flames could be a prime candidate for a bounce-back team if they get a bit more puck luck in 2023-24, meaning Wolf could definitely be very fantasy relevant if he gets a chance.

2. Speaking of bouncing back, I don’t know how Flames forward Jonathan Huberdeau is going to perform next season, but I do know you’ll probably be able to get him in like the eighth or ninth round in some formats, thanks to the season he just had. That seems like a good bet to make on a player who had 115 points just two seasons ago.

3. I actually think Leafs centre Auston Matthews scoring just 40 goals this season is going to help some fantasy teams in the draft this fall. I’d bet he falls out of the top five in some leagues and some lucky GMs are going to land him at pick No. 7 or 8. He’ll be a steal at that point and he scored at a 53-goal pace over his final 22 games. Matthews should flirt with 60 once again next season.

4. One of the other reasons Matthews could slip slightly is the emergence of a number of players hitting elite status. Jason Robertson, Matthew Tkachuk, David Pastrnak and a handful of others could all have cases for top-five picks next season. It’s going to be fascinating to see what the top 10 looks like in the majority of fantasy leagues after a season that saw 11 players hit 100 points and five hit 50 goals. There’s never been a better time a have a late first-round pick or an early second.

5. Minnesota Wild defender Brock Faber has handled himself pretty well in the few playoff games he’s skated in. With Matt Dumba and John Klingberg pending UFAs this summer, it seems more than likely that Faber will be one of Minnesota’s six defencemen next season.

6. What about Marco Rossi? The Wild struggled to score this season, ranking 23rd in goals for, which was worst among all playoff teams. Minnesota is also thin at centre and in a bit of a cap crunch, so I wonder if Rossi gets a longer look next season.

7. Lukas Reichel finished with 15 points in 23 games this season for the Chicago Blackhawks. He should be up full-time with the team next season and is someone to keep an eye on. I don’t know if he will be draftable unless you’re in a really deep league, but if the Blackhawks land Bedard, suddenly Reichel could become a very interesting option.

8. After scoring 31 goals in 49 games with the Vancouver Canucks last season, Bo Horvat had just seven in 30 games following his trade to the New York Islanders. I really think Horvat’s first half was an anomaly on a Bruce Boudreau-coached team with a lot of high-end offensive talent around him. Don’t bank on him regaining that form next season with the Islanders. Yes, Mat Barzal missed a bunch of time, which hurt Horvat’s production, but the former Canuck is probably closer to a 25-30 goal scorer and a 50-point player, and should be drafted as such.

9. One player who really filled the void in Vancouver when Horvat left was Andrei Kuzmenko. Nearly reaching 40 goals in his first NHL season, Kuzmenko is definitely a must-have if he plays with Elias Pettersson again.

10. If you’re already thinking about your keepers for next year, be cautious about keeping goalies. I always think there’s generally more value in skaters and there’s never a problem finding a handful of goalies off waivers like we saw this year with Copley, Gustavsson and Skinner who will have major value. There’s just no way you’ll be able to find the equivalent of a William Nylander, let’s say, just sitting on waivers, but could you get by with someone like Gustavsson instead of Frederik Andersen, for example? Absolutely you could. So, if it comes to a choice between a high-end skater and a high-end goalie, I’d always keep the skater. You’ll find a goalie much easier to replace next season.

11. There might not be a player with more fantasy question marks going into next season than defenceman Victor Hedman. He failed to hit 50 points and was supplanted on the top power-play unit for the Tampa Bay Lightning at times by Mikhail Sergachev. That’s a huge disappointment after scoring 20 goals and 85 points in 2021-22. Hedman is the same age as Erik Karlsson, and we saw what the San Jose Sharks defender was able to do at 32, so it’s too premature to say Hedman’s best offensive days are behind him. That said, Hedman has a very strong all-around game, so there’s a possibility he just settles into more of a defensive role as he ages. If Hedman is on the bubble as a keeper for you, you’ve got a real tough choice on your hands.

12. Another Lightning player erased any doubts about his game when Nikita Kucherov hit 100 points for the third time in his career. There was never any question about Kucherov’s skill, but seeing the Tampa forward skate in all 82 games after playing just 47 over the past two seasons must have brought a big sigh of relief for those rostering him. If his injury woes are behind him, Kucherov could easily make a case for a top-five pick.

13. Don’t look now, but Casey Mittelstadt finally reached fantasy relevancy, with 59 points, including 31 in his final 33 games. Next season might be the final season you can snag him as an under-the-radar pick. If he’s in the Buffalo Sabres top six going forward, he’s not going to sneak past anyone anymore.

14. The Sabres were one of the most exciting teams for fantasy in 2022-23, except in goal. That could change next season if they’re a playoff team and Devon Levi takes over the net. The same goes for Ville Husso of the Detroit Red Wings and Anton Forsberg of the Ottawa Senators. Any and potentially all of those three teams figure to be a much bigger player in the post-season picture next season. I could see one of those goalies having a season comparable to what Vitek Vanecek put together this season for the Devils.

15. Stars defenceman Miro Heiskanen finally delivered on a long-awaited breakout season, more than doubling his point total from the year prior. So, who will be next year’s Heiskanen? I don’t think he doubles his point total, but I’m predicting 60 from Rangers' forward Alexis Lafreniere.

16. Where do you draft Max Pacioretty? He will be coming off back-to-back Achilles tears, but scores at a very good rate when healthy. Definitely a high-risk, high-reward option who could be a good stash candidate.

17. There were a number of strong seasons that didn’t garner much attention, but Kraken centre Jared McCann’s might have been the quietest. His 40 goals and 70 points to go along with more than 200 shots were very impressive. The Seattle Kraken were in the top five in goals for last season and thanks to McCann and Co., I expect that to continue.

18. The best-kept secret in fantasy hockey this season was Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett. He had 27 goals, 231 shots and, most importantly, Tippett averaged nearly two hits per game and almost one block per outing. That’s incredible category coverage. Don’t miss out on him as a late pick in your drafts.

19. What an explosion for Brandon Montour this season. The Florida Panthers defenceman dropped 73 points after never reaching 40 in a season before. Given that Aaron Ekblad regressed in a big way, I think Montour is going to be the first defender taken from the Panthers in most drafts next season. What aided Montour in 2022-23 is that Florida employed both Montour and Ekblad on the first power-play unit, and Montour took advantage, with 33 points with the man advantage. Most teams don’t use two defensemen on their top unit, but the Panthers utilized the formation to finish as a top-10 unit in the NHL.

20. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was definitely the most surprising 100-point scorer this season. Sure, you can claim the success of Nugent-Hopkins is thanks to Oilers teammates Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and a historically good power play, but so what? There’s no reason to believe all those things won’t be in play next season to benefit Nugent-Hopkins. It wouldn’t shock me if he surpasses 100 points once again.