20 Fantasy Thoughts: Can Huberdeau bounce back with Flames? 

The start of a new fantasy hockey season brings hope. Hope that the player who disappointed in a major way last year can re-discover his form and bounce back.  

Targeting players who are coming off bad seasons is a good strategy when building your roster. Those players will often come at a bargain price in drafts and if you know who to look for, they could pay big dividends down the line.  

Maybe it was an unusually low shooting percentage that is due to come back up or a new linemate or team that could give a player a boost that makes you think someone is in for a bounce-back campaign. If you can hit on a bounce-back pick or two, it is going to give you a huge advantage over the competition in your league.  

It might even be the difference in putting your team over the top for a fantasy title.  

1. Unquestionably, Calgary Flames forward Jonathan Huberdeau is the most popular bounce-back candidate this season. That’s what happens when you have a 60-point dropoff in production from one year to the next. Huberdeau looked nothing a like 100-point player after being traded to the Calgary Flames and he never found his footing in Darryl Sutter’s system.  

A new head coach should provide hope and optimism that Huberdeau can turn it around and Ryan Huska will no doubt make it a top priority to get him performing like an elite player once again. If nothing else, Huberdeau will have lots of upside this year based on where he’s being selected in drafts.  

Right now, Huberdeau has an ADP of 123, which is in the 12^th round for 10-team leagues. Even if Huberdeau has only a moderate bounce back, let’s say going from 55-70 points, that’s tremendous value from where you can get him. The later in the draft you can snag a player means the less they have to do to recoup their value.  

2. One would think if Huberdeau bounces back that means Elias Lindholm will as well. Lindholm didn’t have a terrible season last year, but it was way below the standard he set in 2021-22. It’s a contract year for Lindholm and I always like betting on guys that are chasing a new deal.  

3. There will be a number of trendy bounce-back options from the Flames, and perhaps no one more important than Jacob Markstrom. His numbers were awful last season, but Markstrom has proven he can rebound in the past. He had a .904 save percentage in his first year in Calgary and followed that up with a .922 in 2021-22. If nothing else, Markstrom is going to play a ton, so if you believe in Calgary this season, believe in Markstrom.  

4. Staying in Western Canada and between the pipes, Thatcher Demko is coming off a season he would like to forget. That said, Demko did finish 10-4-0 with a .920 save percentage after returning from injury when Rick Tocchet took over, which is more like the Demko we’ve been accustomed to over the past couple of seasons. I think where Demko is being drafted right now, on average in the eighth or ninth round, makes him a very good gamble to make. He’s far more talented than his final numbers showed in 2022-23.  

5. It sounds weird to call someone that scored 40 goals and 85 points last season a bounce-back candidate, but it did feel like a down year for Auston Matthews. The Toronto Maple Leafs sniper had 60 goals two years ago and 41 goals in 52 games the year before that, so you can see why those rostering Matthews last season may have been a bit disappointed.  

Contributing to the down numbers was the fact that Matthews had a shooting percentage of just 12.2 last season, over three percent below his career average. I’d bank on that normalizing this year and the fact that Matthews has 0.62 goals per game for his career as tell-tale signs that Matthews is going to easily score 50-plus again. If that happens, Matthews will be a steal at his current ADP of eighth overall.  

6. It was an uncharacteristically quiet season in 2022-23 for Victor Hedman. The Tampa Bay Lightning blueliner followed up an 85-point campaign with just 49 last season and was passed by Mikhail Sergachev on the top power-play unit. Hedman will turn 33 this season, so it’s possible his days of being an elite fantasy defenceman are over, but he’ll still be a very valuable asset even if he can get back to 60 points. 

7. I’m not sure how hot of a take this is, but I think Kyle Connor will be a 50-goal scorer one day. He only had 31 last year after a 47-goal campaign the year before, with 2022-23’s total coming on a low shooting percentage. Further contributing to Connor’s disappointing year was starting with just two goals in his first 14 games. I’d bet he doesn’t go through another slump that bad again in 2023-24.  

8. Evander Kane’s season was essentially derailed by injuries in 2022-23 and that may make him get somewhat overlooked in drafts. He’s currently going outside the top 100, which is great value for a guy still playing in the Oilers' top six and who can fill up the hits category.  

9. Lucas Raymond was the victim of a sophomore slump last season and there’s reason to believe he can turn it around if he’s playing with Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat. That’s great deployment for Raymond, whose drop in production could be attributed to shooting a lot less in 2022-23, posting 50 less shots overall. I think this trio is going to have the puck in the offensive zone a lot and that’s going to give Raymond ample opportunity to find his touch again.  

10. There’s going to be major risk/reward with Cam Talbot this season. Was his tough campaign last year the result of injuries and playing on a weaker team? Or is he declining as a 36-year-old? The Los Angeles Kings are definitely a much better team to help prop Talbot up and he does have a career .914 save percentage. So, there’s at least reason to believe he could be a decent mid to later-round option for you if you’re looking to take a chance on a goalie. 

11. It’s not easy being the captain of a Canadian team and I think even though he’s now playing in New York, there’s going to be a big weight lifted off Blake Wheeler’s shoulders this season. He’s likely going to play with Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin on a New York Rangers team that’s thin at right wing. I could easily see Wheeler getting 60-65 points in that scenario if he stays healthy.  

12. Tristan Jarry became unreliable last season simply because he couldn’t stay healthy. Jarry’s issue has never been inconsistency, as he’s now played over 200 games, won almost twice as many outings as he’s lost and owns a career .914 save percentage. If he can avoid injury this season, you’re going to get a steal with Jarry in probably the ninth or tenth round.  

13. On to some notes from around the league at training camps, and the Leafs appear to have a new quarterback on the first power play, with John Klingberg getting reps there at the moment. It remains to be seen if that sticks throughout the year, but it should at least give a big boost to Klingberg’s draft stock. Toronto’s man advantage ranked second in the league last season, behind only the Edmonton Oilers, who had arguably the greatest power play of all time. It would be hard for Klingberg not to be productive in that situation.  

14. It hasn’t been an ideal start for Nik Ehlers this pre-season. Coming off a season where he averaged the lowest ice time of his career, Ehlers hasn’t appeared in an exhibition game yet because of a neck issue. There’s so much potential with Ehlers, but injuries have plagued him in recent years. Hopefully this is just a minor setback.  

15. Jake Guentzel is already back practising, which could be an indication he won’t be missing much time at all to start the season if any. If you were eyeing Reilly Smith late in drafts as a Guentzel replacement to play with Sidney Crosby, you may have to settle for Smith playing on the second line with Evgeni Malkin.  

16. We’ve seen teams experiment with two defencemen on the power play more and more recently, and the Detroit Red Wings appear to be the next club giving it a shot. They used both Moritz Seider and Shayne Gostisbehere on the man advantage to start camp, with Seider scoring and Gostisbehere picking up a pair of power play assists in a pre-season game earlier this week. That certainly boosts Gostisbehere’s value if it sticks. 

17. If you we’re hoping for Marco Rossi to find his footing this year, you can’t be happy about his linemates at the start of camp. Rossi was skating with Pat Maroon and Marcus Foligno out of the gates, which isn’t an ideal combination to get the most out of Rossi’s skillset.  

18. It appears Pavel Francouz is dealing with another injury and may not be ready to start the season, which means Justus Annunen is probably the next man up. Given Alexandar Georgiev’s workload last season, I don’t think you should be drafting Annunen, but he could be an interesting streaming option in the early part of the season. Annunen has a great team in front of him.  

19. I’m no doctor, but Patrick Kane looked pretty good working out on the ice in a video that surfaced earlier this week. Kane is recovering from off-season hip surgery and will probably have his pick of suitors when he’s ready to sign. I’d definitely consider stashing him if you have the roster room. If Kane ends up with a team like the Buffalo Sabres, he could have a lot of value and give a huge boost to your squad part way through the season.  

20. Tough luck if you already drafted Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning netminder is set to miss the next 8-10 weeks, leaving a hole on many fantasy rosters. Tampa is tight to the cap, so a significant move to replace him seems unlikely. There’s a decent chance they go the waiver route and someone like Martin Jones might make sense if the Leafs try to pass him through. Whoever they add could have some short-term value to start the year if they catch lightning (no pun intended) in a bottle.