Is this the year the Ottawa Senators take a major step forward? If you’re keeping or planning to draft Linus Ullmark, you’re banking on it.

The Sens have not exactly provided an abundance of riches when it comes to fantasy goaltenders in recent years and on the surface, it’s hard to imagine anything changing drastically next season, even with Ullmark now in the fold. Ottawa’s blueline still leaves a lot to be desired. Thomas Chabot has a tough time staying healthy, Jake Sanderson still has some developing to do and Jakob Chychrun is gone. Looking at the defence corps right now doesn’t give you a lot of confidence Ottawa can improve on their 28th overall ranking in goals against and a 29th-ranked penalty kill.

Now it’s fair to say a large problem for the Sens last season was goaltending, as Joonas Korpisalo simply didn’t play well. Ullmark is unquestionably an upgrade, even if he is coming from a goalie-friendly and structured team. He stopped 14.8 goals above expected in 2023-24, good enough for seventh most in the league.

The 30-year-old won’t be as insulated now, though, and maintaining his strong numbers is going to be tough. My guess is he’ll be a mid-round pick in most drafts, as some will be scared off by the change in teams, but enough will bet on Ullmark’s talent and the Sens improving. There’s a chance Ullmark could work out really well or really badly next season.

I don’t think there will be much in between.

1. It would be very tough for your value not to take a hit if you left Sidney Crosby’s wing, but Jake Guentzel’s may very well have gone up. He should be an excellent fit next to Nikita Kucherov and where I’m most confident Guentzel’s numbers will benefit is with the man advantage. The Tampa Bay Lightning had the league’s best power play last season, while the Pittsburgh Penguins ranked 30th. A full season next to Kucherov could see Guentzel hit a new career high in points and power play points.

2. Jake DeBrusk lands with the Vancouver Canucks and will likely slot in with Elias Pettersson. That’s good news if you’re eyeing DeBrusk, though I don’t think his value is going to take too big of a jump. DeBrusk played quite a bit with the likes of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak in Boston, so Pettersson isn’t a huge upgrade there. I think DeBrusk is still around a 25-goal scorer in a best-case scenario.

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3. There could be some regression coming for Dakota Joshua. He re-upped with the Vancouver Canucks at a decent number, though I’m skeptical he’ll be able to score 18 goals once again. Joshua had a whopping 21.4 shooting percentage in 2023-24 which saw him score 18 times on just 84 shots. He reminds me a lot of Tanner Jeannot and the early success he had with the Nashville Predators before coming back down to earth. That said, Joshua is still great for hits, so even if the offence dips, he’ll still have value and upside in multi-cat leagues.

4. Speaking of Jeannot, can he recapture any of his magic now that he’s headed West to the Los Angeles Kings? I think the Kings are deeper than the Lightning, but Tampa had the better high-end talent. Jeannot could never work his way into a consistent stay in the Lightning top six, though, so it may be farfetched to think a simple change of scenery will fix anything. If your league has hits, Jeannot is still probably worth a later-round gamble due to his proficiency there and even if he can regain some of his offensive form he’d be an asset in deep leagues.

5. Reinforcements are coming for Connor Bedard. The Chicago Blackhawks added Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen in free agency, giving Bedard some decent talent to work with in his sophomore season. I know he’s only played one season, but the lack of skill around him as a rookie made it really tough for him to succeed. To his credit, Bedard had a really good year under the circumstances and the Blackhawks probably didn’t want to wait any longer to give their generational talent more to work with. Obviously Bertuzzi and Teravainen are going to be propped up by Bedard, but it’s Bedard who benefits most.

6. The San Jose Sharks appear to be trying to avoid a similar path with their prized rookie. San Jose grabbed Tyler Toffoli, giving Macklin Celebrini a solid scorer at his disposal. It's still possible that Celebrini returns to college for another year, but with strong finishes last year from William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund, plus adding Toffoli into the mix, I think he’s starting in a better position as a rookie than Bedard did.

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7. Nobody was busier than the Nashville Predators on July 1. But one of their biggest announcements was a long-term agreement with goalie Juuse Saros. This obviously isn’t ideal if you’ve been keeping Yaroslav Askarov, as Saros is going to at least partially block him from playing time. At best, Askarov is going to be in a timeshare going forward with one of the biggest workhorse goalies in the league. At worst, he’ll remain in the AHL for another year. It’s possible there’s a middle ground here where Askarov gets traded somewhere with a chance at more playing time. That’s probably what you should be hoping for right now if you have Askarov.

8. There were worse landing spots for Steven Stamkos than Nashville, but I really think the former Lightning captain is going to see his numbers take a hit. Stamkos feasted on the league’s best power play last season, notching almost half of his 81 points on the man advantage. There isn’t anyone even remotely as creative and skilled as Nikita Kucherov on Nashville for Stamkos to benefit from.

In fact, the Preds are fairly thin at centre overall, with Ryan O’Reilly being their best. He had a solid bounceback season in 2023-24, though I think O’Reilly will have a tough time duplicating it as he’ll turn 34 next year. Stamkos will probably be asked to do a lot less in Nashville and the Predators have done a great job of building a strong team, but I can’t see Stamkos continuing to be a 40-goal scorer and 80-point player there.

9. I have similar concerns about Jonathan Marchessault. I’d be very wary about taking a soon-to-be 34-year-old who just scored a career-high 42 goals after he’s changed addresses. Marchessault is going to miss Jack Eichel. I wouldn’t stay away from Marchessault entirely, just don’t overreach when drafting him.

10. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Patrick Kane is back with the Detroit Red Wings, a place where he excelled a year ago and finally looked healthy again. Kane nearly posted a point per game and he really looked comfortable in Detroit’s top six. It wouldn’t shock me if Kane gets around 75 points once again, provided he avoids injury.

11. It feels like every season the Red Wings have the biggest logjam in goal and this year figures to be no different. Cam Talbot and Jack Campbell have joined Alex Lyon and Ville Husso to form what is the league’s most crowded crease. Lyon was pretty good last year but faded down the stretch and it seems like Detroit doesn’t fully trust him, while Husso struggled to stay healthy. Drafting either Talbot or Campbell also seems like a significant gamble. There’s probably a Zero G candidate in there somewhere as the Wings are a team on the rise, but good luck figuring out who it is.

12. Vladimir Tarasenko has scored 50 and 55 points respectively in the past two seasons, but now finds himself in a loaded Detroit top six. Does he become fantasy-relevant again?

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13. My pick for the most underrated signing in free agency is Jeff Skinner. There are few opportunities better than a spot next to Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, and the Edmonton Oilers have been looking for a consistent presence there. Connor Brown, and a handful of others, couldn’t take advantage of opportunities there in 2023-24, but Skinner has the ability to make the most of it.

There’s probably a misconception that Skinner is washed up because that’s the way we tend to view players who have been bought out of their contracts, but he’s a bit of a different case. Skinner has still averaged 33 goals over the past three seasons, he just simply wasn’t worth the $9 million cap hit the Buffalo Sabres were giving him.

McDavid has helped Hyman go from a solid player to a 50-goal scorer, so it’s not unreasonable to think Skinner could hit the 40-goal mark on that line if he can stay healthy. I’m also fairly confident Skinner’s skillset will translate well to McDavid’s game. Skinner is good at getting open and finding space in the offensive zone, meaning someone of McDavid’s talents should have little problem getting him the puck. Don’t miss out on Skinner in your drafts.

14. I don’t think the addition of Jakob Chychrun will impact John Carlson too much. The Washington Capitals blueliner should still get power play one time ahead of Chychrun, though it does hurt Rasmus Sandin some. Sandin was a nice streamer at times when Carlson was injured as he picked up more power play time, but Chychrun figures to get those potential minutes now. For me, Chychrun is still stuck in a weird middle area when it comes to fantasy value. He’s probably the No. 2 defenseman on the Caps and on the second power play unit. Chychrun has some value in deep leagues but likely isn’t a true difference-maker.

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15. Elias Lindholm is coming off a really down year, so the Bruins took quite a chance giving him that lucrative contract. Still, I imagine he’ll be playing with David Pastrnak regularly and in some scenarios both Pastrnak and Marchand. That’s not a bad spot to try and get back on your feet. Lindholm may even fall far enough in some drafts to make him a decent low-risk, high-reward move.

The Lindholm addition isn’t great news for Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, though, who both got pushed up the lineup after Patrice Bergeron retired. It’s possible Zacha gets moved to the wing full-time, leaving Coyle in a position to continue to take on a second-line centre role. Coyle had some real value last year, especially in leagues that count faceoff wins, after a career-high 25 goals and 60 points.

16. I would be mildly concerned if I was rostering Sean Durzi now that Mikhail Sergachev is joining Utah. Sergachev will be real competition for Durzi’s power play spot and you may remember he even wrestled it away from Victor Hedman in Tampa for a time. Utah has a lot of young talent and sooner or later whoever is quarterbacking their power play is going to be a very coveted player in fantasy.

17. I’d be cautious about Chandler Stephenson next season. He wasn’t as good offensively after playing less with Mark Stone and Jack Eichel this past year and he won’t be playing with anyone nearly as talented as those two in Seattle. I think Stephenson will be closer to 50 points than 60 in 2024-25. Unless you’re in a league that really values faceoff wins, Stephenson is probably going to be more of a streamer with the Kraken.

18. It’s hard to see Max Domi playing wing given the centre depth issues the Toronto Maple Leafs have, but that’s easily where he has the most fantasy value. Domi was very productive next to Auston Matthews when Mitch Marner was injured, but with Marner still with the team and a new coach, it remains to be seen how the forward lines will shake out. Should Domi get a long look with Matthews he’d be a must-roster, especially in leagues with penalty minutes. Domi had a career-high 118 PIM last season.

19. If you’re looking at early under-the-radar Zero G candidates, I like Ilya Samsonov. He had an up-and-down season in 2023-24, but I think he could really thrive under Bruce Cassidy and that strong Vegas Golden Knights defence. Cassidy’s teams are very goalie-friendly and structured, and he’s known for rotating his goalies. Starter Adin Hill still has never played more than 35 games in a season, so Samsonov should get a decent amount of playing time.

20. Of all the players that have still yet to sign, Daniel Sprong intrigues me the most. He’s scored at a great rate during the past two campaigns, despite limited minutes and opportunity. Sprong has played 12 minutes or less per game over the past two years and has still averaged nearly 20 goals a season. I’d like to see him get more minutes and a consistent shot in the top six somewhere.

20 Fantasy Thoughts: Can Ullmark keep numbers up in Ottawa?

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