20 Fantasy Thoughts: Don’t be surprised if Kyle Connor wins the Rocket Richard Trophy

If you didn’t think Kyle Connor was one of the league’s best goal scorers before this season, there’s no denying it now. 

The Winnipeg Jets forward is off to the races, already notching nine goals and 18 points. While it’s still very early, Connor is hovering around the league leaders in goal scoring, and there’s reason to believe he’ll contend for the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2024-25 if he can stay healthy. 

When it comes to Connor, he has every tool to be one of the NHL’s most elite goal scorers. Connor has a lightning-quick release, is effective on the power play with four goals so far and plays with a very good centre in Mark Scheifele. The 27-year-old and Scheifele have formed good chemistry, and every great goal scorer needs a pivot that can get him the puck in the right spots.

What could also benefit Connor in his pursuit of the award is that some annual contenders like Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak have started off slow relative to their standards. Plus, players like Cole Caufield and Nico Hischier, who have surprised with hot starts, probably don’t have the staying power to hang over 82 games with someone like Connor. Then there’s Sam Reinhart, who continues to feast on a ridiculously high shooting percentage that I still think will come down eventually. Nikita Kucherov has also found the back of the net nine times, though he’s more of a distributor and more likely to end up with 100 assists than 50 goals. Let’s also not forget the 2023 Rocket Richard winner, Connor McDavid, but he’s sidelined for at least the next few weeks, which will hinder his chances.

The most likely challengers for the award are still Matthews and Pastrnak, even if they are a few goals behind right now. Each of them has the capability to get on a major hot streak and it would be foolish to ever doubt Matthews, who has won it on three different occasions and surpassed 60 goals twice. The more goals Connor can bank now while Matthews and Pastrnak are quiet, the better his chances will be.

That said, Connor has never even reached the 50-goal mark, topping out at 47 in 2021-22. If he wants to be the top goal scorer this season, Connor will probably need at least 60 in 2024-25 and a few things will have to go right. First, Winnipeg’s power play will have to keep cooking. The Jets rank first in the league by a wide margin right now, well up from a 22^nd overall finish last year. This group is also looking more offensive-minded than it was a season ago under Rick Bowness, currently averaging almost two shots more per game than they did in 2023-24. 

After that aforementioned 47-goal campaign, Connor dropped to 31 and 34 goals, respectively, over the next two seasons, hurting his fantasy value in the process. If you invested in him this year, though, you have to be ecstatic about his start and how dominant he looks at times. There’s still a long way to go until this year’s top goal scorer is crowned, but Connor unquestionably has the talent to take the title, and he appears closer to unleashing it over a full season than ever before. 

1. Hischier is already up to 10 goals, which is a crazy pace and gives you a couple of options. Given that he’s shooting over 22 per cent and has never scored more than 31 in a season before, Hischier could be a good sell-high candidate. At the same time, even if that shooting percentage drops, he should still be around a point per game for the season with good shot volume and faceoff coverage. You could easily hold onto him and see where this goes. I’d probably explore the trade market, though, and if you don’t get an offer that knocks your socks off, just keep him.

2. The dam has finally burst for Matty Beniers. After recording just a single assist in his first seven games, the Seattle Kraken forward has exploded for six points in his past five outings. Beniers was getting good looks during his slump, so it was only a matter of time before he broke through. He’s secured a spot on the top line with Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle, so hopefully, Beniers can keep it going.

3. Add Trevor Moore’s name to the list of disappointing players so far. The Los Angeles Kings forward had 31 goals last season but has only found the scoresheet four times in 12 games with just one goal. He’s only shooting 3.7 per cent right now, so that should regress positively at some point if you can hang onto him. Moore also typically averages more than a hit per game, meaning he can be a fairly important piece if he can rediscover the offence. 

4. It was a roller coaster of a few days for Kevin Fiala. He was benched, then scratched for missing a team meeting, before finally notching a goal and an assist when he returned to the lineup. Fiala is notorious for second-half surges and usually finishes strong. Stay the course.

5. I’m a little more concerned with Quinton Byfield. He still hasn’t scored yet and recently went more than three games without recording a shot on goal. The Kings seem committed to making it work with him at centre, but right now, that’s pushing him down to the third line. He doesn’t look anywhere near as dangerous as when he played the wing with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. I’d hold onto Byfield a little longer, but he’s definitely getting close to drop territory in one-year, multi-cat leagues. He simply isn’t filling enough categories at the moment.

6. Connor McMichael has been a major bright spot this season for the Washington Capitals. He’s up to 12 points in 10 games and has been a key part of a Caps second line that also features Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson. McMichael recently received left-wing eligibility to go along with his centre distinction, so he’s now a versatile add going forward.

7. In addition to McMichael, another Caps forward has emerged as fantasy relevant. Aliaksei Protas has been promoted to the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome and has recorded three multi-point games in a row. Like McMichael, he also has C/LW eligibility and is widely available in all leagues.

8. The Colorado Avalanche may have a very thin bottom nine, but there are no issues with their second-line centre. Casey Mittelstadt has been on fire to start the season, recently posting back-to-back three-point games and is now up to 14 points on the year. Things will likely slow down when the Avalanche get some healthy forwards back in the lineup, as that could cause Mittelstadt to drop off the first power-play unit. For now, grab Mittelstadt while you can, as he remains under 50 per cent rostered.

9. Colorado’s crease is a tough one to figure out. Justus Annunen had a good run following Alexandar Georgiev’s struggles, until Jared Bednar gave Kaapo Kahkonen a random start this week that didn’t go well at all. That meant Annunen started just once this week after being a great find off waivers. I still think he’s the goalie to roster in Colorado, but there’s definitely some uncertainty between the pipes. This is just me speculating, but I wonder if the Avs would be interested in John Gibson when he’s healthy if they could figure out how to make it work with the cap. 

10. The flip-flopping mid-game between Linus Ullmark and Anton Forsberg last Sunday because of a skate issue Forsberg was dealing with ended up having big consequences for at least a few fantasy matchups. Ullmark had to come in twice for brief stays in the crease, stopping both shots he faced. One reader told me they were winning all of the goalie categories in their matchup because their opponent failed to hit the minimum appearances in net, until Ullmark entering the game flipped all four categories the other way. The smallest things can sometimes make a huge impact in fantasy.

11. It was a big week for the San Jose Sharks, who put together a three-game winning streak after going winless in their first nine. Jake Walman has been great, but the best pickup of the week might have been Alex Wennberg, who totalled four points, 11 shots, a hit, three blocks and 32 faceoff wins in four games. I’m not sure the offence sticks, but Wennberg is on PP1 and should be an add to look at if your league counts faceoffs.

12. Now that the Sharks look better, the Yaroslav Askarov watch is officially on. He’s been incredible in the AHL this season, and we know a callup is coming soon. Both Vitek Vanecek and MacKenzie Blackwood are on expiring deals, and it probably wouldn’t be too challenging to move one to open up space for Askarov. I still think Askarov is more of a long-term value play, as the Sharks likely won’t be consistent enough to make him relevant this season, but he could have major value in the next two or three years. 

13. The New York Islanders have to be near the top of the list among teams with the fewest rosterable skaters. New York has already been shutout four times this season in just 11 games and, prior to Friday night’s win, had only eight goals total in their previous five contests. Mat Barzal has just two even-strength points this season and now he’s injured. Meanwhile, Noah Dobson hasn’t scored yet. The Isles have had issues scoring in recent years but this is taking it to another level. 

14. The Toronto Maple Leafs have finally broken up their struggling top power-play unit. While that may be good for balance and, at some point, give the team a spark, it’s never good for an individual player’s fantasy value. William Nylander is now away from Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, as is John Tavares with the man advantage. If I were rostering either, I’d want them to get as many opportunities with Matthews and Marner as possible. A stacked first unit is always best in fantasy.

Mind you, Toronto’s power play now ranks last in the NHL, so I’m not sure it really matters what the line combinations are at this point. 

15. After a slow start, Cutter Gauthier has four points in his past five games and at least four shots in four of those contests. As always with Anaheim Ducks players, there’s good value with them in busy weeks because they play so many Friday and Sunday games.

16. Jack Roslovic has found a home on the Carolina Hurricanes' top line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. He’s up to six goals with great shot volume but is only centre-eligible right now. If he also gets right wing, I could see him becoming a trendy pickup off waivers. 

17. Another lower-rostered player to look at is Pavel Dorofeyev from Vegas. He isn’t playing with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone at even strength but still has five goals and eight points in his past six games. Dorofeyev is on the top power-play unit, too.

18. Looking at next week’s schedule, only New Jersey, Minnesota, Nashville and Los Angeles play four times. If you haven’t picked up Marco Rossi yet, now is the time. He’s stapled next to Kirill Kaprizov and has points in every game but two this year. The Wild will also play some friendly opponents in San Jose, Anaheim and Chicago next week.

Jake Allen might be worth a look, too, if you need help in net. Just looking at the schedule, I could see him getting starts against his former team, Montreal, and then San Jose next weekend, which are two good matchups. 

The Kraken play just twice, so it’s probably time to let Philipp Grubauer go. Joey Daccord is taking over the crease, and both matchups for Seattle are tough, with Colorado and Vegas on tap.

19. It’s been a disastrous start for Pavel Zacha. The Boston Bruins forward has only one point in his past 10 games despite being on the top line with David Pastrnak. There should be every reason to roster Zacha, as he gives you faceoff wins with LW eligibility and is playing with an elite player, but he’s tough to hold at the moment. The Bruins as a whole have really been struggling, so Zacha’s overall value has taken a massive hit.

20. Zach Hyman finally scored earlier this week, though can he keep it going with Connor McDavid out with an injury for a few weeks? I do think that eventually, Hyman will really get rolling, so you may be able to buy low if he keeps struggling with McDavid out. I’d put feelers out to see what someone would take back for him if he has another couple of quiet games. When McDavid returns, I think Hyman will ultimately have good value.

On another Oilers note, Mattias Ekholm has taken McDavid’s spot on PP1 for now. Something to watch for, and Ekholm could be a good short-term add.