20 Fantasy Thoughts: Matthews starting to dominate again just in the nick of time

Very few people knew who Dylan Ferguson was before Monday night. Now he may have vaulted a few fantasy teams to a championship.  

If you were courageous enough to bet on the Ottawa Senators goalie against the Pittsburgh Penguins, you were rewarded with an incredible 48-save victory during a time when quality starts off the waiver wire are almost impossible to find.  

Ferguson had only played one prior NHL game and that came in the 2017-18 season, so no one could blame you if you wanted no part in starting him.

As good as it went for Ferguson, so much could’ve easily gone wrong. Only a night earlier, we saw Kevin Lankinen give up five goals on six shots, something that is no doubt still stinging those who streamed him. That’s how awful things can go if you make the wrong choice in goal for a one-game streaming option.  

As Ferguson proved, though, sometimes gambles pay off. And the deeper you get into the fantasy playoffs, the bigger the reward.  

1. There’s never a good time for a slump, but Jack Hughes picked the worst possible stretch to go quiet. Hughes managed just one goal in 12 games and hadn’t recorded a point in three straight, before finally breaking out with a pair of goals Friday. His shot volume is still solid, so it was only a matter of time before Hughes got back on track, though many rostering him were probably growing impatient.

What’s interesting is Hughes’ struggles came right around the time the New Jersey Devils traded for Timo Meier. You’d think that should’ve given the entire team an offensive boost, but the line juggling appeared to have gotten Hughes out of his comfort zone. This hasn’t changed my opinion of Hughes at all, he’s still an elite talent that you have to keep for next season if you can. Even really great players go cold for stretches throughout the year.  

2. Someone that is having no trouble finding the back of the net is Matt Boldy. He’s up to six goals in his past four games and eight over his last eight. The Minnesota Wild forward has been a bit inconsistent in the early part of his career, but there’s no denying the talent is there. The question is should Boldy be a keeper? I think in leagues where you can keep more than four or five players he should probably make the cut.  

3. It’s becoming a real challenge to keep track of the goaltending situation for the Vegas Golden Knights these days. In the past six weeks, they’ve had five different goalies win a game for them and almost anyone they put between the pipes has value.

Logan Thompson returned Thursday but quickly got injured again, so Jonathan Quick is still a hold for the time being. Adin Hill doesn’t seem to be close to returning, which might make him a drop if you need the roster space. And Laurent Brossoit or Jiri Patera are worth keeping an eye on if Thompson is sidelined for a while again. Brossoit got back in the net Saturday and picked up the win. Got all that? 

4. Sticking with Vegas, Pavel Dorofeyev has five goals and seven points in his past seven games. He’s taking advantage of some time in the top six and a bit of power play time. At this time of year players you least expect can sometimes save your team, and Dorofeyev, at 2 per cent rostered, would certainly fall into that category.  

5. Brayden Point has a very realistic shot at 50 goals this season. I think Point may have been a bit overlooked this year after three average campaigns of production due to missing time due to injuries and the pandemic-shortened season. His last full year came in 2018-19, where he exceeded 40 goals and had 92 points. He may finish just shy of a new career high in points but getting to 50 would prove he’s an elite scorer. I don’t think Point is going to fly under the radar at all in drafts next year.  

6. The Buffalo Sabres really faded down the stretch and Tage Thompson did somewhat, too. Thompson has two goals in his past three games but that followed an eight-game stretch where he failed to find the back of the net, and his shot volume has fallen off. He’s only recorded more than three shots three times in March after averaging close to four per night for the season. Thompson was on a torrid pace earlier in the campaign and at one point it looked like he would cruise to 60 goals, but now he’s still got a bit of work to do just to hit 50.  

7. Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner and Dylan Cozens have received most of the attention in Buffalo this season, but very quietly, Alex Tuch has 68 points in 64 games. It’s rare to give up a superstar like Jack Eichel in a trade and come out ahead, but I think the Sabres are going to be just fine.  

8. Barring something unforeseen, Carter Verhaeghe should be a 40-goal scorer for the first time. What’s most impressive about this is how little power play time Verhaeghe gets. Verhaeghe barely cracks the top 150 this season in power play ice time, yet he ranks in the top 15 in goals.  

9. Kyle Connor finally broke his scoring drought Thursday, picking up his first goal in 12 games. It’s hard to be too critical of a guy that’s likely going to finish with more than a point per game, but it still feels like somewhat of a disappointing season. Many pegged him to hit 50 goals this year after a 47-goal campaign a season ago, and he’s only sitting at 28 right now. This lengthy slump and a very slow start really set him back.  

10. Someone brought up an interesting strategy recently, and I’ve actually considered it myself in the past but never had the guts to try it. What if you abandoned goalies entirely? Hear me out on this. It wouldn’t work in every format, but for leagues that have far more skater categories than goalie ones, it has its advantages.

Let’s say your league has 13 categories and nine of them are skater (goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks, etc.), could you win seven of them if you used your goalie roster spots for skaters? If you typically carry three goalies and replaced them selectively with skaters from off nights, you could possibly add 9-12 games on your opponent. It would give you a huge advantage in volume categories.

I actually think this works better in a small sample size like the playoffs, as over a long season handing your opponent four categories every week would be tough. But if you were in a win-or-go-home scenario and you didn’t like the prospects of your goalies one week and your categories are skater heavy, you could go all in. The floor for a skater is usually still pretty good, like a couple of shots and maybe a block or hit, but for goalies — as we mentioned with Lankinen earlier — it can be disastrous.

It’s a very bold strategy, but I’d be interested to see it put into action at some point. 

11. Kirby Dach is back with two goals and an assist in three games, which included a big night against the vaunted Boston Bruins. The Montreal Canadiens forward is getting big minutes, has dual eligibility, and one of his four games next week comes on an off night. Dach is worth considering in a matchup where you’re trying to maximize roster flexibility.

12. The return of Jordan Binnington from suspension hasn’t removed Joel Hofer from the St. Louis Blues net. Hofer keeps playing and keeps winning. He’s 3-0-1 with a .944 save percentage since being called up, and the Blues have a couple of friendly matchups coming up next week, too. Don’t think about Hofer just in the short term, as he’s signed for cheap for the next two seasons on a one-way deal. He’ll likely replace pending UFA Thomas Greiss and push Binnington for starts in 2023-24. 

13. Auston Matthews is starting to look like Auston Matthews again. He has eight goals in his past nine games and 67 shots over his past 12. That includes an incredible 15 against the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday, one of the best defensive teams in the league.

More importantly, he looks more engaged and dominant than he has in quite a while. Matthews noted earlier this month he had been dealing with a hand injury, so maybe that’s part of the reason his scoring pace had been so far off last year’s. This recent stretch, though, puts him more in line with what he did in 2021-22 and it’s better late than never if he helps you to a fantasy title. 

14. Someone who's benefiting from Matthews’ run is Calle Jarnkrok. The Toronto Maple Leafs forward is capable of playing with good players, and he took advantage of a stint with Mitch Marner and John Tavares earlier in the season making him a good stream. Now he’s up with Matthews and Marner and has nine points in 11 games. When Jarnkrok is in the bottom six he isn’t worth rostering but keep an eye out for him when he gets a promotion.  

15. Don’t look now, but Wyatt Johnston has 10 points in his past 13 games with the Dallas Stars and recently had a run where he scored goals in five straight. Johnston is now in the top five in rookie scoring as well. He could have some decent value down the stretch, but I think Johnston will be more of an important piece next season as he continues to improve at the NHL level.  

16. John Carlson is back with a vengeance. He scored a pair of power-play points in his return and has three points total and 10 shots in two games since he’s come back. He’s also cut into Rasmus Sandin’s time on the man advantage in a major way. The veteran Washington Capitals defender played 4:23 on the power play compared to Sandin’s 1:08 on Thursday. It’s going to be tough to hold onto Sandin with those kinds of splits.  

17. After a three-point night earlier this week playing with Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, Denis Malgin was a trendy pickup given the Colorado Avalanche’s schedule this week. Malgin, though, responded with a pair of pointless games and has dropped back to the second line. It was a good gamble, but I don’t think it’s worth hanging onto Malgin beyond this week. 

18. Barrett Hayton’s nine-game point streak finally came to an end Friday after a whopping 14 points. Hayton has been an incredible find down the stretch playing with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, who both have been as consistent as anyone playing right now. I don’t think many people would have guessed one of the league’s most potent lines after the All-Star break would’ve been on the Arizona Coyotes.  

19. There hasn’t been much to cheer about with the Anaheim Ducks this season, but Cam Fowler has a new career high in points. He also has 17 points in his past 19 games. Fowler became the player I think the Ducks were hoping John Klingberg would be.  

20. If you’ve rostered Mattias Ekholm in the past, it was likely for blocked shots or as a short-term pickup when he had a good schedule. So, most people have probably been surprised with Ekholm’s offensive surge since joining the Edmonton Oilers.

Ekholm has nine points in 12 games since being traded, including two- and three-point outings. To put that into perspective, Ekholm already has as many multi-point games in Edmonton as he did in the 57 games he played in Nashville this year.  
Maybe we shouldn’t be so surprised. Connor McDavid is having a historic season, Leon Draisaitl is one of the five best players in the world, and Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are having career years. Not to mention the Oilers are averaging almost four goals per game. All of this is clearly working in Ekholm’s favour. Kudos to you if you saw this coming and grabbed him.