20 Fantasy Thoughts: Tavares struggling to keep up production amid major drought

John Tavares is starting to slow down.

That’s been evident based on the eye test over the past season or two, but it’s never really hampered his fantasy production. Tavares has essentially been a point-per-game player ever since he joined the Toronto Maple Leafs and he remained at that level in the past two seasons, even when it seemed like he was starting to lose a step or wasn’t driving play as much. That appears to be changing, though.

Tavares is one pace for just 63 points in 2023-24, which would be his lowest total over a full season since 2016-17. He was also benched for the majority of the third period last Saturday against the Colorado Avalanche and he hasn’t recorded a point in seven straight games, his longest drought as a Leaf.

One of the reasons Tavares has been able to continue to produce as he approaches his mid-thirties is his production on a potent Toronto power play. Tavares had 39 points with the man advantage a year ago, but at the midway point of this year, he only has 10. That doesn’t bode well for him to get back to being a point-per-game player.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Tavares isn’t an asset anymore in fantasy. A 60-plus point player who’s great in the faceoff circle is certainly useful and an important piece of a lot of rosters. His days of being a high-end point producer just may be coming to an end and you’ll have to adjust his draft position going forward.

Tavares will be 34 later this year and we know Father Time remains undefeated.

1. Pontus Holmberg is up to seven points in eight games now, taking advantage of some time playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Sheldon Keefe has been notorious this season for switching up the lines at a moment’s notice, so there’s no guarantee Holmberg maintains his position long-term. Still, if you’re looking for a one-game streaming option, Holmberg is worth a look while he remains on that line and maybe you keep him as long as he’s still getting that deployment.

2. The Vancouver Canucks recently re-united the Lotto Line of Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson and JT Miller and they’ve really been clicking. It’s been especially beneficial to Pettersson, who has 12 goals in 10 games and a couple of four-point nights over that stretch. There’s also been a couple of ripple effects for Pettersson since joining that line. The first is he’s been given LW eligibility because Miller has been handling the centre duties, but Pettersson is also no longer taking draws regularly, so his faceoff wins have really dropped. That’s not ideal if you were relying on him for that in your league, but I’m sure you’re not too devastated because it’s also coincided with the aforementioned offensive outburst.

3. Ridly Greig has taken advantage of Josh Norris and Shane Pinto being out, to the tune of six points in his past six games. Both Norris and Pinto are back this weekend, though, so it remains to be seen if Greig can hold his place in the Ottawa Senators top six.

4. There are very few players on the Chicago Blackhawks outside of Connor Bedard that you’d want to roster, but Jason Dickinson is working his way into the conversation. He has 15 goals on the year, is solid for faceoff wins and hits, and is getting decent ice time. For deep multi-cat leagues where a fantasy squad has been hit by a bunch of injuries, Dickinson could be a short-term stopgap.

5. I thought Sam Reinhart’s shooting percentage would have regressed by now, but he’s still scoring at an incredible pace. The Florida Panthers forward already has 33 goals, second to only Auston Matthews, and is shooting nearly 27 per cent. It wouldn’t be shocking if he came back down to earth somewhat eventually, but we’re past the point of selling high. Reinhart is playing too well to move at the moment unless you’re getting an incredible haul in return.

6. It was pretty telling to see Nico Daws receive back-to-back starts against the Panthers and Boston Bruins recently. Daws played very well in both games, stopping 36 and 33 shots respectively against two really great teams. He quickly stumbled, though, following those games up with a pair of bad outings. The New Jersey Devils are searching for someone to claim the net, as Vitek Vanecek has struggled mightily this year. Akira Schmid couldn’t do it and based on his play so far, it’s questionable if Daws can either.

7. It appeared Timo Meier started to turn a corner before his most recent injury after a stretch of four goals in three games. He notched an assist on the man advantage in his first game back Wednesday and added another Saturday. I wonder if he can secure a spot on the top power-play unit with Jack Hughes out.

8. With Jack Eichel out long-term with an injury, you might want to look at grabbing Chandler Stephenson. The Vegas forward has been pushed up to the top line and has five points in four games since Eichel has been out. Even though he’s been quieter this year, Stephenson scored more than 60 points in each of the past two seasons. He’s capable of producing in a top-six role.

9. Juraj Slafkovsky isn’t lighting up the scoreboard by any means, but he does have 10 points in 15 games. That’s at least an encouraging sign for a player that a lot of people are already writing off. He’s also playing on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield and getting big minutes. I’m not saying Slafkovsky is going to turn into a fantasy stud, but it’s way too early to count out someone with his size and skill set.

10. It’s a small thing, but the game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Buffalo Sabres being moved from Wednesday to Thursday could have been problematic for a few fantasy teams. Many try to target players that play on Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday for streamers, as those nights are quieter and it’s easier to work them into your lineup. Someone like Casey Mittelstadt, who only has centre eligibility, would be a lot easier to start Wednesday compared to Thursday, when lineups get crowded.

11. Devon Levi received all the hype heading into the season but it feels like it’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s net now. Luukkonen is 5-2-0 in his past seven starts and owns a .948 save percentage over that stretch. He’s been virtually unbeatable. Levi is probably the goalie with more long-term value, but if you’re trying to win right now, Luukkonen is the one to roster in Buffalo.

12. No points for Zach Benson in his past nine games and just a single assist in his last 12. He also only has four goals on the season. You have to wonder if it was wise for the Sabres to burn a year of his entry-level contract, especially with a crowded group of young forwards in a season that isn’t going very well. It looks like the Sabres are going to give Benson a shot on the top line with Jeff Skinner out, so maybe that sparks him. I think Benson has good long-term value, but we likely won’t see it this year.

13. I know more than a few people were excited about Samuel Girard’s recent offensive surge, but I’d caution about relying on him as anything more than a streamer. He’s never scored more than 37 points in a season before and his shot volume isn’t good. Not to mention, Girard is still behind Cale Makar for power play time. Girard is one of those better in real-life than fantasy players for me.

14. With Jared Spurgeon done for the year, that should leave Brock Faber with no challengers for top power play time. It’s a development that’s only going to boost his value.

15. Things are not looking so great for Filip Gustavsson, however. He’s allowed 15 goals in his past three appearances and is down to an .892 save percentage on the season. The Minnesota Wild also don’t look very good, so there’s little reason to hold onto Gustavsson at this point. It’s a huge fall for Gustavsson based on last year’s numbers, but it’s not the first time we’ve seen someone look like a completely different goaltender from one season to the next.

16. Don’t look now, but Nazem Kadri just concluded an eight-game point streak, recording 11 points over that stretch. Kadri has overcome a very slow start to become a significant fantasy asset once again. He’s also providing solid shots and faceoff win coverage as well. Kudos to you if you bought low on Kadri way back in October.

17. Max Pacioretty is starting to find his footing. He’s up to five points in seven games and has found a spot on the Washington Capitals top line. Pacioretty is still widely available in most leagues and is worth a look if your team needs scoring help.

18. With Cam Talbot struggling, David Rittich received back-to-back starts this week. Rittich has actually had three quality outings in a row now. I still think the Los Angeles Kings trust Talbot the most, but it wouldn’t shock me if Rittich steals some more starts here and there to reduce Talbot’s workload. Ultimately, I think the Kings will trade for a goalie at some point that will both help and hurt Talbot’s value. He’ll probably play less, but hopefully, his numbers improve because he’s fresher.

19. I mentioned Stephenson as an add with Eichel out, but Nicolas Roy also deserves consideration. William Karlsson is sidelined also, so Roy finds himself in the top six with four games next week, including Monday and Friday contests. Roy has three points in three games, has RW/C eligibility and he’s great for faceoff wins. Adam Boqvist also has four games next week and is currently on the top power-play unit. He’s now up to four points in his past five games and is getting good ice time. Boqvist could be a good addition until Zach Werenski is healthy. Colorado and Toronto are the only teams that play just twice next week, so see if there’s anyone that makes sense for you to flip on your roster that has a better and more busy schedule.

20. Moritz Seider has just one point in 11 games and is only averaging one shot per contest over that stretch. Seider is right around the same pace for points as he finished with last year, which won’t be any consolation to those rostering him, as I think most were hoping he’d bounce back to closer to what he produced as a rookie. One of the things that could be impacting Seider is his offensive zone start percentage. It’s declined steadily since his first year in the league and currently sits at just 38.7%. It’s very possible Seider turns out to be an excellent defenseman in this league, but he may not be a huge point producer.