20 Fantasy Thoughts: Why has Matthew Tkachuk's offence disappeared?

The frustrations are growing from those rostering Matthew Tkachuk.

After back-to-back 100-plus point seasons, the Florida Panthers forward has found the scoresheet just twice in his past 11 contests.

When Jonathan Huberdeau was traded for Tkachuk, he went from 115 points in his final season with the Panthers to only 55 in his first season with the Calgary Flames. Now the same thing is quietly happening to Tkachuk. He scored 109 last season and is on pace for just 60 this year. That’s a massive drop.

Well, I’ll be the first to admit, I was wrong about him last season. I thought Tkachuk’s point total would plummet when he left Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm, but he bettered his numbers during his first season in Florida. I didn't feel those two were carrying Tkachuk or he wasn’t a talented player, but that final season in Calgary with those three just felt like lightning in a bottle.

So, what has happened to Tkachuk this year? It’s hard to say, but I wonder if the Panthers' style of play has something to do with it. Florida has carried over its game from its Stanley Cup Final run and the Panthers have become an incredibly structured and tight checking team.

They rank in the top five in the NHL in both goals against and shots allowed. That’s great for winning games, but as we’ve seen sometimes with the Carolina Hurricanes for example, it’s not always good for fantasy. This style of play can hurt a player’s offensive numbers and potentially lower the ceiling on his production. I’m not saying that’s the entirety of what’s happening to Tkachuk, but I don’t think the Panthers' style is helping.

The other factor here is Tkachuk’s shooting percentage. It’s at a measly four per cent right now, well below his career average. That should normalize as the season goes on and improve his numbers. He’s also playing nearly a minute and a half less than last year, which isn’t ideal. All of this is adding up and contributing to a slow start from Tkachuk.

I think Tkachuk has avoided some criticism for his start because his tremendous playoff performance is still fresh in everyone’s mind, but it must seem like a distant memory right now for those counting on him in fantasy this season.

1. I don’t think anyone predicted Arizona Coyotes forward Michael Carcone would’ve had more goals than Leon Draisaitl, Elias Pettersson, Jack Eichel, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Steven Stamkos in early December. He doesn’t get much ice time and his shooting percentage is over 34 per cent, so this isn’t going to last, but kudos to you if you’ve been taking advantage of Carcone’s play so far.

2. A number of people were growing impatient with Ivan Barbashev, but he’s finally picking up the offence. Barbashev now has six points in his past five games, showing signs of what made him an attractive option during last year’s post-season with the Vegas Golden Knights. I don’t see Barbashev keeping this pace going long term, though if he can get on a heater every now and then, he’ll be worth holding based on his other category coverage.

3. Samuel Ersson had an excellent November, recording a .926 save percentage. The Philadelphia Flyers netminder won’t play as much as some other goalies on waivers, but he’s a good streaming option. I’m always on the lookout for goalies that play well in spot starts, as they can be good options on a Sunday when you’re desperate for a streamer to salvage your stats.

4. Mason McTavish has cooled off some. He hasn’t recorded a point in four games and suffered an injury last weekend, so I know some are concerned about him going forward. It’s important to remember that even though McTavish has been really strong this season, he’s still just 20 years old. There will be ups and downs. The Anaheim Ducks forward is going to be a huge fantasy asset for a long time that has great value in leagues with penalty minutes and faceoff wins. Stay the course.

5. It’s been a roller coaster of a season for Dawson Mercer. He recently had a stretch of four points in six games, but now he’s pointless in three. This all after a dreadful start where he failed to record a point in his first 10 games. At the very least, the New Jersey Devils forward does have the benefit of C/RW eligibility, which makes him easier to fit in on your roster, though the consistency just isn’t there.

6. Dustin Wolf is finally getting an opportunity with Jacob Markstrom out week-to-week with a broken finger, but I’d be wary of the Calgary Flames' schedule. I mentioned this last week and the Flames still have to face Colorado, Vegas, Tampa Bay, Florida and Los Angeles in the next two weeks. That’s not ideal for Wolf during his first real significant stretch in the NHL. Wolf has been a standout in the AHL and there’s always a chance he gets hot, but just temper your expectations out of the gate.

7. Here comes Matt Boldy. I mentioned Boldy as a good buy-low candidate not too long ago when he was stuck on one goal, but now he’s up to five goals in his past six games since the Minnesota Wild made a coaching change. Boldy should be a perennial 30-35 goal scorer in this league, but as with a lot of scorers, you have to ride out some cold stretches.

8. Filip Gustavsson is also working his way back into fantasy relevance. After an awful start that surely saw him get dropped in a number of leagues, The Minnesota Wild goalie has steadied the ship, allowing just six goals in his past four starts. He also picked up the win in three of those contests. I’d circle back just in case Gustavsson is available in your league and you need help between the pipes.

9. Jakub Vrana has now been healthy-scratched eight times this season, including a recent stretch of four straight games with the St. Louis Blues. It feels like we say every year he needs a change of scenery and here we are again. I’d really like to see Vrana in a top-six somewhere with significant minutes to see what he can do.

10. If you are thinking of taking a shot on one of the resurgent San Jose Sharks, Mikael Granlund seems like the best choice. He’s up to 12 points in his past seven games, while receiving huge minutes and providing good shot volume and faceoff win coverage. Not to mention he has C/RW eligibility. The Sharks are scoring in bunches and Granlund is the guy I’d try to capitalize on.

11. For those who have been stashing him, Max Pacioretty is skating but it sounds like he’s still at least a couple of weeks away from getting into a game. The Washington Capitals forward is a long-shot at this point to be a difference maker, but it’s a low-risk, high-reward gamble. He can score at a great rate.

12. It was unfortunate timing for Elvis Merzlikins to land on injured reserve. He’s actually been fairly steady this season, posting a .910 save percentage on the year and a .915 since the start of November. We’ve seen Merzlikins post respectable numbers on bad Columbus Blue Jackets teams before and he appears to be at it again.

13. It was a tough outing for Ville Husso on Thursday against the Sharks and he’s now given up at least three goals in every start but two this season. You have to think Alex Lyon could get a significant run for the Detroit Red Wings soon if he can play the way he has for most of the year and avoid starts like the one he had Saturday against Ottawa.

14. Mason Marchment deserves a look as a streamer. He’s notched five goals and eight points in his past seven games, as Marchment, Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin have formed a fairly potent trio for the Dallas Stars. Marchment hasn’t really been fantasy relevant since he put together a really strong campaign in 2021-22, but he’s suddenly a trendy waiver-wire pickup that might be able to help a squad that’s in need of an offensive spark.

15. Mathew Barzal has always been one of the more frustrating players in fantasy, but those rostering him haven’t had much to complain about this season. Since his rookie campaign, Barzal’s talent always left many wanting more when looking at his offensive numbers and now he appears to be delivering. He’s on pace for 92 points, which would easily be a career high. Barzal didn’t get to play much with Bo Horvat last season because of injury, so this is our first real glimpse of seeing what they can do together with the New York Islanders. So far, Horvat is proving to be the jolt that Barzal needed to become a fantasy stud.

16. If it wasn’t for bad luck, Andre Burakovsky would have no luck at all. After returning from injury this week for the first time since Oct. 24, the Seattle Kraken forward is again set to miss significant time thanks to picking up another injury after only nine minutes of action. He’s produced at a pretty good rate over the past few seasons, but Burakovsky has had a real tough time staying healthy.

17. Next week’s schedule sees a handful of teams play four times, including the Vancouver Canucks. Perhaps Sam Lafferty is worth a look as a streamer considering he’s now playing with Elias Pettersson on the top line and has five points in four games. He’s great for hits as well and has the always helpful C/RW eligibility.
Conversely, Columbus, Montreal, Minnesota, and Los Angeles play just twice, so if you need to drop a fringe player from your roster, someone from those teams probably make sense. Maybe now is the time to also move on from the struggling Pierre-Luc Dubois if you need the roster space.

18. Tough luck for Joseph Woll. The Toronto Maple Leafs goalie went down with a high-ankle sprain in the middle of an incredible performance that comes in the midst of a very strong season. Woll was one of the few bargain goalies that is delivering this year, but this is exactly why you keep Ilya Samsonov around. He’s been thrust back into the starter’s role for the foreseeable future behind a strong squad. Samsonov could end up being a huge asset again and at the very least, he’s going to get a lot more playing time now.

19. Despite getting bumped up to the top power play this week, Kris Letang still doesn’t have a point on the man advantage this year. In fact, the Pittsburgh Penguins don’t have a power-play goal since Nov. 11. I’m curious to see how Letang and Erik Karlsson work out together long term on the same power play. I don’t think things went swimmingly when Karlsson and Brent Burns were paired together in San Jose.

20. It’s time to give Petr Mrazek his due. He’s played very well this season for a weak Chicago Blackhawks squad. Mrazek has stopped 75 of the last 76 shots he’s faced over two games and he’s raised his save percentage for the season to .912. That’s really impressive considering the state of the team in front of him.