The St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild, two of the most evenly matched teams in the NHL, will go head-to-head in a highly anticipated Stanley Cup Playoffs first-round series that has been set for what seems like weeks. (Excuses by the advance scouting teams will not be heard.)
Both teams are solid up and down the lineup, but not without questions. Can the Wild D hold off a juggernaut Blues offence that can roll four balanced lines at any one time? Who will emerge as the star in net for two teams that effectively have four No. 1s between them? Will Wild coach Dean Evason get past the first round for the first time in his career? Will the Blues score if power plays are at a premium?
Let's get to it.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Blues: 3-0-0
Wild: 0-1-2
THE BREAKDOWN
These two teams are just plain fun to watch – especially against each other. Sure, the head-to-head record shows that the Blues won all three meetings, but that's deceptive because the last two ended in overtime (including a barometer game on April 16), and the regulation win was at the anything-can-happen Winter Classic, which was fun to watch, and not just because of wacky goals being scored in the frigid conditions.
The Blues like to open it up, at one point rolling out 12 consecutive games of scoring four goals or more, a franchise record that flew under the radar of cool things that happened this season. One look at the team's top scorers explains the offensive boost: Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, Ivan Barbashev, Brayden Schenn, David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly and Brandon Saad are all having gangbusters, redemptive, breakout or career-topping seasons. Not to mention that the mix of experience and youth, skill and bravado is well-suited for the long playoff haul.
Down the middle, the Blues are undeniably deep: In addition to Thomas, O'Reilly and Schenn, the Blues have Logan Brown and the recently returned Tyler Bozak, nice depth players who provide different strategic fits. But sleep on those highly skilled wingers – Kyrou could be a difference maker, if he's given the time and space – at your own peril, especially when Tarasenko – who has returned to form – is refuting the notion he's lost a step and on the first power-play unit.
Speaking of the power play, the Blues made a lot of offensive noise with the extra man: around 21 per cent of their goals, to be specific. The power play was a magnificent thing to watch during the season, successful a little more than one out of every four attempts. But if the Wild somehow suddenly improve their bottom-third penalty-killing unit – which is a hot goalie away from happening in the playoffs – the Blues could be clawing and scratching for every goal.
Then there's the Blues D, which is dynamic. Colton Parayko, Torey Krug and Justin Faulk are the heavy-minute monsters, but count on deadline acquisition Nick Leddy being in the mix with his savvy veteran presence as well. And toss in Marco Scandella and Niko Mikkola, who provide solid depth on the top pairing, killing penalties or wherever.
The biggest concern for the Blues – perpetually, as any Blues fan who shudders at the mention of the names "Jon Casey" or "Roman Turek" will attest – is goaltending. Will the Blues go with this season's de facto No. 1 Ville Husso or 2019 Cup hero Jordan Binnington, even though the latter lost his job this season to the former? Binnington got back-to-back starts late in the season and didn't look very good, winning with an .800 save percentage against the Coyotes (yikes!) and .879 against the Avalanche, so you've got to think Husso is the presumed No. 1 ... which is fine if you are distracted by his spiffy regular season stats and choose not to be terrified by the fact he's played not a single minute in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Wild, historically not exactly a thrilling must-watch, also have – get ready for it – tremendous scoring depth, six players having at least 20 goals, and three of those with at least 30 goals. That scoring depth is led by the sensational Kirill Kaprizov, who set the franchise record for points, was a steady top-10 scorer all season and very well could be a threat for 50 goals next season. Although fellow Russian Tarasenko can be spectacular to watch, the younger Kaprizov is on the way up to establishing himself as the heir apparent.
After Kaprizov, however, the offence drops off precipitously, which isn't a terrible thing because his numbers are so elite. Sure, he's 20-odd points better than Kevin Fiala, but Fiala, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman and Joel Eriksson Ek make up a very good second tier. Add in winger Marcus Foligno, who topped the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career, and Matt Boldy, who was at almost a point-a-game pace since scoring the game-winner in his NHL debut in January, and you've got a pretty solid top six.
He's not exactly objective, but relatively new arrival Marc-Andre Fleury was in awe of the offensive punch his new teammates had.
“Look how teams are made up now: four lines that can contribute offensively,” Fleury told The Athletic. “When I started, your third line was grinding, your fourth line was fighting. Now, look at our third line. We have two 20-goal scorers on there. Imagine having to defend (Jordan) Greenway, Eriksson Ek and Foligno. Is there a bigger line in the league? Imagine having to defend them. They’re our checking line, but they check by playing in the offensive zone.”
On D, the Wild get the most minutes out of the big three of Jonas Brodin, Mathew Dumba and Jared Spurgeon, followed closely by Alex Goligoski and Dmitry Kulikov. With the exception of Kulikov, all see significant time on the power-play and/or penalty-killing units. Trade deadline acquisition Jacob Middleton wasn't obtained to light the lamp, but his steadying and tough presence shouldn't be underestimated in these tight games.
Speaking of special teams, for a team as successful as the Wild, their power-play and penalty-killing units were anything but special, each ranking in the lower-third in the league. Both those units have to be better for the Wild to stand any chance of holding off the Blues.
One position the Wild are conceivably are deeper at – or are least more comfortable – than the Blues is in net, where three-time Stanley Cup winner and high-profile trade-deadline acquisition Marc-Andre Fleury and recently red-hot saves machine Cam Talbot have been sharing the duties. You've got to think Fleury, given his big-game experience and trophy case, will be the No. 1 in the playoffs. But if he falters, having a fired-up Talbot ready to go puts the Wild in a position of strength.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Blues X-Factor: Robert Thomas
It's hard to believe that Thomas is only 22 years old. He carries himself with poise on the ice, he's often on the first power-play unit, he kills penalties and is the No. 1 centre on an offensively stacked team, playing mostly between leading scorer Tarasenko and Buchnevich. The trio is the team's offensive driving force, and there's a great deal of depth behind him should he show his relative inexperience, but the Blues will be counting on him to maintain the line's chemistry and momentum.
Oh, and he did this to the Wild earlier this season:
Wild X-Factor: Kirill Kaprizov
The talented and flashy left winger Kaprizov is in that unenviable position of coming off an amazing offensive season and being counted on by his club to continue that in the playoffs. So ... can he?
This season, he's been a force to reckon with, not only the Wild's go-to offensive weapon at full-strength but also the quarterback from the point on the top power-play unit and one of the top-five points per 60 in the league. He's been the X, Y and Z factor. The biggest question remains: Can he take that next step elite players take and push through the tighter checking of the playoffs?
After his breakthrough rookie season last year, in the postseason the Russian had two goals as the Wild went seven games before being bounced by the Vegas Golden Knights. If he does more in this year's playoffs, the Wild could push the offensively deep Blues. But if he fires blanks, it will be a short series.
One thing's for sure, he's unlikely in the playoffs to get backdoor-sneaky time and space like this:
Sure, goaltending and defence will play a huge role in this series, as with all others, but as Kaprizov goes, so go the Wild.
BROADCAST DETAILS
Monday, May 2: at Minnesota, 9:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 360)
Wednesday, May 4: at Minnesota, 9:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 360)
Friday, May 6: at St. Louis, 8:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 360)
Sunday, May 8: at St. Louis, 4:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 360)
*Tuesday, May 10: at Minnesota
*Thursday, May 12: at St. Louis
*Saturday, May 14: at Minnesota
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