2023 NHL Awards Predictions: Who will win? Should win? Get snubbed?

NASHVILLE — The hype and hysteria of NHL Draft week, with all those realized teenage dreams and frantic trade rumours, kicks off Monday in Nashville with a two-hour NHL Awards ceremony.

Rare that the league’s awards and entry draft are held in the same city, but the league has nailed this one right, supersizing the hockey party in a town that already has no qualms about letting its hair down.

To get you set for the gala — fittingly hosted by country music star Dierks Bentley — we’ve whipped up a complete guide for who will win, who should win, plus a few deserving names whose invites, uh, must’ve gotten lost in the mail.

“Whether you win or not, everybody that is here are winners. We all had great years,” double finalist Erik Karlsson says. 

“We’re here to celebrate a good regular season. None of us got the goal that we wanted, which is to win. That's only Vegas. That's how it is. But, like, everybody that’s here is happy. It’s a happy event.”

Without further ado, here is your 2023 NHL Awards cheat sheet — finalists, winners, snubs — for all the trophies to be handed out Monday, starting at 8 p.m. ET on Sportsnet.

Awarded to: Player most valuable to his team
Who decides: Professional Hockey Writers’ Association
Finalists: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers), David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins), Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers)

Who will win: McDavid
Who should win: McDavid
Who else made a good case: Jason Robertson, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl

Explain yourself: All McDavid did was lead the field in goals (64), assists (89), points (153), and jaw-dropping moments. His third Hart is already in the bag. You can’t even bet on the outcome of this award in Vegas, the odds are so stacked.

“Who would've ever thought I'd be in the same conversation as Connor McDavid and Pastrnak?” Tkachuk says. “It’s pretty obvious who we all assume the award’s gonna go to. Myself too. I guess, at the end of the day, I get to come to Nashville, have a good time with my family and friends, and don't have to give a speech.”

The only question is whether the vote will be unanimous. Big week for 97…

Awarded to: Best goaltender
Who decides: NHL general managers
Finalists: Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets), Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders), Linus Ullmark (Boston Bruins)

Who will win: Ullmark
Who should win: Ullmark
Who else made a good case: Juuse Saros, Alexandar Georgiev, Jake Oettinger

Explain yourself: No question, Ullmark benefitted from an all-time elite regular-season squad in front of him. But when you take the crease, the mission is to make sure your team wins. Ullmark did that in a mind-boggling 40 of his 48 starts. Oh yeah, he also posted the best save percentage (a silly .938) and scored a freaking goal.

Awarded to: Best defenceman
Who decides: Professional Hockey Writers’ Association
Finalists: Adam Fox (New York Rangers), Erik Karlsson (San Jose Sharks), Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche)

Who will win: Karlsson
Who should win: Karlsson
Who else made a good case: Hampus Lindholm, Dougie Hamilton, Josh Morrissey

Explain yourself: The knock on Karlsson winning his third Norris Trophy and first in eight years is twofold. One, he’s on the ice for too many goals against — he finished a career-worst minus-26 — and doesn’t excel enough at the ol’ defending part of the position. And two, how much can his greatness matter if it can’t rally his team to the post-season? We’d counter that Karlsson’s offensive campaign was so special, it cannot be denied. The first 100-point D-man since Brian Leetch accomplished the feat 31 years ago. P.S. Karlsson also ranked third among defencemen in takeaways (81).

Awarded to: Most proficient rookie
Who decides: Professional Hockey Writers’ Association
Finalists: Matty Beniers (Seattle Kraken), Owen Power (Buffalo Sabres), Stuart Skinner (Edmonton Oilers)

Who will win: Beniers
Who should win: Power
Who else made a good case: Wyatt Johnston, Jake Sanderson, Matias Maccelli

Explain yourself: That Beniers led the freshmen class in points (57), even-strength points (46), plus/minus (plus-14), and helped propel his franchise to its first playoff berth should be plenty to earn him the win. He’s deserving. Just as deserving, however, is Power — a plus-10, top-four defenceman on a weaker club with a minus-four goal differential. Playing a much more difficult position for a first-year pro, Power topped all rookies in ice time (23:48) and only generated eight of his 35 points on the power-play.

Awarded to: Most outstanding player
Who decides: Fellow members of the NHL Players’ Association
Finalists: Erik Karlsson (San Jose Sharks), Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers), David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins)
Who will win: McDavid
Who should win: McDavid
Who else made a good case: Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon, Jason Robertson

Explain yourself: Formerly the Lester B. Pearson Award, the Teddy is to the NHL Awards what the Viewers’ Choice Award is to the MTV Awards: a popularity contest. No player elicits more superlatives from his peers than McDavid, with those lightning-fast feet and blink-and-miss-it hands. A no-brainer. McDavid should capture his fourth Lindsay in the past seven seasons.

Awarded to: Player who exhibits the best sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability
Who decides: Professional Hockey Writers’ Association
Finalists: Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils), Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings), Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Who will win: Hughes
Who should win: Joe Pavelski
Who else made a good case: Nico Hischier, Aleksander Barkov, Jaccob Slavin

Explain yourself: The Devils’ MVP finished with more points (99) than any player with fewer than 10 penalty minutes, and that’s often how this works. I’d say he’s doing OK. Still, I wish Pavelski had gotten recognition here. The oldest forward in the league skated all 82 games, piled up 77 points, registered the best plus/minus of any forward (plus-42) and only took four minor penalties while playing in hard areas. Tons of respect for how Pavelski goes about his business. One of the sport’s true gents.

Awarded to: Forward who best excels in defensive aspects of the game
Who decides: Professional Hockey Writers’ Association
Finalists: Patrice Bergeron (Boston Bruins), Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils), Mitchell Marner (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Who will win: Bergeron
Who should win: Marner
Who else made a good case: Anze Kopitar, Jordan Staal, Sidney Crosby

Explain yourself: Bergeron has become the default here and it feels a little foolish to build a case against him winning the Selke for a record sixth occasion. Reputation helps, but so does the captain’s role in Boston’s record-setting season for wins (65) and points (135). He’s a beast in the faceoff dot (61.1 per cent), kills penalties, and provides offence. Not as much offence as Marner, however. Marner trumps Bergeron in points (99-58), takeaways (104-38) and ice time (21:17-17:24) and plays on Toronto’s top PK unit. Yes, it’s rare for a winger to win it, but Marner is a rare bird.

Awarded to: Coach who contributes most to his team’s success
Who decides: NHL Broadcasters’ Association
Finalists: Dave Hakstol (Seattle Kraken), Jim Montgomery (Boston Bruins), Lindy Ruff (New Jersey Devils)

Who will win: Montgomery
Who should win: Bruce Cassidy
Who else made a good case: Peter DeBoer, Rod Brind’Amour, Jared Bednar

Explain yourself: We get it. The Jack Adams is a regular-season award, and Montgomery’s group was the best over the first 82 games by a zillion miles. The Bruins got dealt adversity with early-season injuries, and Montgomery had to rally a veteran group, integrate deadline adds, and keep two competitive goalies in their prime happy. He’s a fine choice. Our issue is that the real coaching test is going head-to-head against a peer in a best-of-seven match of tactical tweaks and momentum shifts. To that end, the man Montgomery replaced is king.

Awarded to: General manager who best excels at his role
Who decides: The GMs and a panel of NHL executives, print and broadcast media
Finalists: Jim Nill (Dallas Stars), Don Sweeney (Boston Bruins), Bill Zito (Florida Panthers)
Who will win: Nill
Who should win: Kelly McCrimmon
Who else made a good case: Bill Guerin, Tom Fitzgerald, Don Waddell

Explain yourself: This one is a toss-up. Sweeney may indeed add a Jim Gregory to his Presidents’ Trophy, but he already won a GM of the Year (2019). The long-tenured Nill, 65, has not. And 58-year-old Zito — the boldest of the bunch and the one who reached the Cup Final — still has runway. We’ll hedge toward Nill not only for his career excellence but for his ability to lock up Dallas’s young studs at reasonable rates: Roope Hintz at $8.45 million, Jason Robertson at $7.75 million and Jake Oettinger at $4 million. Robbery.

Awarded to: Player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey
Who decides: Professional Hockey Writers’ Association
Finalists: Clayton Keller (Arizona Coyotes), Kris Letang (Pittsburgh Penguins), Alex Stalock (Chicago Blackhawks)
Who will win: Letang
Who should win: Letang
Who else made a good case: Craig Anderson, Brock Boeser, Patric Hornqvist

Explain yourself: Letang rebounded from the death of his father and from suffering a second stroke. Still, he competes at an elite level. Incredible. Letang personifies perseverance in sport.

“It's incredible that he was able to go through some scares the way he did,” Darnell Nurse says. "As a fellow player in the league, it's incredible to see. Very inspiring.”

Awarded to: Player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and has made a noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community
Who decides: Committee of senior NHL executives led by commissioner Gary Bettman and deputy commissioner Bill Daly
Finalists: Mikael Backlund (Calgary Flames), Anders Lee (New York Islanders), Darnell Nurse (Edmonton Oilers)
Who else made a good case: Victor Hedman, Matt Dumba, Morgan Rielly, plenty more

Explain yourself: We’re not so crass as to handicap whose humanitarian work is more worthy. Rest assured, the King Clancy is a nice reminder of hockey players’ importance to the community in which they play. The first-place finisher will receive a $25,000 donation to benefit a charity of his choice. The runners-up each will receive a $5,000 donation to a cause of their choosing.

“It's cool to be recognized for the things to do off the ice,” Nurse says. “The whole point of it is not to be recognized but just to try to make some change in other people's lives and use your platform and resources that you have to try to help someone with their pursuit of their dreams.”

Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy: On a mission to fill the net, Connor McDavid earned his first Rocket by scoring the most goals scored in the regular season (64). That’s the greatest total since Alex Ovechkin potted 65 in 2007-08.

Art Ross Trophy: McDavid has swiped the Art Ross in each of the past three seasons and in five of the past seven. His 153 points crushed his previous best of 123 (2021-22).

William M. Jennings Trophy: Linus Ullmark (1.89 GAA) and Jeremy Swayman (2.27 GAA) allowed the fewest goals to capture the William Jennings. The Bruins’ dynamic duo led the league almost wire-to-wire, surrendering a paltry 177 goals total during the regular season.

Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award: Oddly, no finalists were announced for Messier’s award. The consummate captain selects the winner — a player who “exemplifies great leadership qualities to his team, on and off the ice during the regular season” — based on suggestions by fans, clubs, and NHL personnel. Could McDavid take this one, too? Let’s throw a deserving name out there: Mark Stone.