At a glance, this one seems fairly cut-and-dried. There’s no getting to the question of what might happen between Boston and Florida without first wading through the string of records and absurd achievements strewn throughout the Bruins’ season.
They are the winningest regular-season team in NHL history, their 65 victories unmatched in the league, their 135 points the same. Then there are the details — the absurd +128 goal differential, the fact that they posted the league’s highest win percentage in one-goal games (and two-goal games, and three-goal games), that they had the league’s best win percentage when they led after the second period and when they trailed after the second period, that they simply dominated third periods in every facet, scoring the most goals of any team in that final frame, and allowing the fewest, too.
Take it all in, and there’s a chance this first-round bout might be that simple. That these Bruins are just a juggernaut with too much momentum to be halted by anyone, let alone a rollercoaster Panthers squad that slipped into the post-season so near the end of the campaign, the door caught their tail as it slammed shut.
That said, we’ve seen this story before, and we’ve seen the plans go haywire. We’ve seen the Bolts getting swept after their own epic regular season — their 128 points that year, by the way, then the fourth-best regular season mark all-time. We’ve seen the Rangers, and their own elite netminder with otherworldly numbers, heading into the playoffs looking a sure thing, before having to grind through seven-game battles and bowing out early. And how many times have we seen a middling team ride an unexpected goaltending performance — like Alex Lyon’s — to wild, unexpected heights?
Maybe it’ll be easy work for Boston, but it’s far from a sure thing.
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HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Bruins: 2-1-1
Panthers: 2-2-0
THE BREAKDOWN
Look back on how these two fared against each other in the regular season, and the ice starts to look a bit less tilted. Through four games over the course of the year, the Bruins and Panthers won two apiece, each taking the two in their own home rink, and falling on the road. If there’s one thing to take away from that season series, it’s how each fared against the other’s No. 1 netminder.
While Florida managed two wins against the B’s, both came against Jeremy Swayman, not likely-Vezina-winner Linus Ullmark. On the other side, the Bruins only faced Lyon once this season — Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight started the first three meetings. When they did face Lyon, back in January, the 30-year-old came up with 38 saves to hold Boston at bay, leading Florida to an overtime win.
In front of the netminders, the chess match should be no less interesting. Hockey tactics expert Jack Han broke down the match-up aptly, identifying the Bruins’ offence as a methodical one, the team skewering their opposition with a controlled, efficient approach. In the Panthers, he saw a more chaotic squad, flinging everything they have at the opposition with more reckless abandon, that wilder approach supported by great forechecking ability.
When the intensity and the physicality ramps up, as it naturally does when the post-season hits, how will those differing styles of play be affected? The Bruins are undeniably the favourite heading into Game 1, but if there’s a thread that could be pulled to unwind their perfect ending, it could be the fact that the Panthers’ game seems better-suited to playoff chaos.
That said, for Florida, it’ll be a fine line. Push the Bruins harder than they have been over the past 82 games, and maybe they can make some magic happen in the first round. Push too hard, though, and their lacklustre penalty kill — which ranks second-worst among all playoff squads — will be eaten alive by Boston’s power play.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Bruins X-Factor: Linus Ullmark
It won’t come as a surprise that the B’s success beyond Game 82 hinges on Ullmark’s dominance extending past that threshold, too.
Boston’s run with this core for a fair while. They’ve gotten worthy production from the David Pastrnaks, Brad Marchands and Patrice Bergerons before, and still fell short the past few seasons — as early as Round 1 last year. There are a number of differences with this iteration of the squad, the majority stemming from Jim Montgomery taking over the bench, and Don Sweeney bringing in some elite depth to build a winning roster.
Still, there’s no denying the most consequential difference in Boston this season can be found in the net, where Ullmark and Swayman have both looked unstoppable.
If they still do come June, there’s a good chance they’ll be lifting silver. If that level dips, we’ve seen this Bruins core come up just short before.
Panthers X-Factor: Alex Lyon
This one’s every bit a battle of the ‘tenders, even with the plethora of elite scorers and blue-liners spread throughout both rosters.
The Panthers have had a rollercoaster of a campaign after their own Presidents’ Trophy-winning effort last season — their 122 points last year, by the way, similarly top-10 all-time. That they made it back to the post-season at all was due in no small part to Lyon’s late heroics. After getting a brief stretch of games in the cage earlier in the year, and a spot start here and there, the former Philly and Carolina netminder took over Florida’s cage in late March and reeled off six straight wins to push them back into the mix.
That’s not to say he had to carry these Panthers — there’s talent on the bench, no doubt. Matthew Tkachuk, who came in amid a surprising off-season upheaval, finished the year with a career-high 109 points. He and Carter Verhaeghe each topped the 40-goal plateau, while Aleksander Barkov remains one of the best defensive-minded forwards in the game. Add in the career year from Brandon Montour on the blue line, and there’s plenty to suggest Florida can cause Boston some problems.
But it’ll all be for naught if Lyon can’t keep the magic going behind them, which will be no minor ask against the league’s second-best offence.
BROADCAST SCHEDULE
(all times Eastern)
Monday, April 17: at Boston, 7:30 p.m. (Sportsnet/CBC)
Wednesday, April 19: at Boston, 7:30 p.m. (Sportsnet/CBC)
Friday, April 21: at Florida, 7:30 p.m. (Sportsnet/CBC)
Sunday, April 23: at Florida, 3:30 p.m. (Sportsnet ONE)
*Wednesday, April 26: at Boston
*Friday, April 28: at Florida
*Sunday, April 30: Boston
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