If, after the last time the Islanders and Hurricanes met in a playoff series in 2019, you had said New York would be the team that would have more playoff success the next two seasons, I'm not sure many outside of the fan base would have agreed. Yes, the Islanders finished ahead of Carolina in the standings by four points that season, but the Canes blew through them in four second-round games. They were clearly the team on the rise, with exciting young talent arriving and buoyed by a deep and elite blue line.
The Islanders' roster was maybe less inspiring as far as future growth potential, with a busy cap outlook, to boot.
But, of course, the Barry Trotz-led Islanders made it to the next two conference finals, while the Hurricanes haven't pushed beyond the second round since.
While the Isles fell back to Earth and missed the playoffs altogether last season, Carolina won its second division crown in a row only to fall to the other New York team in the second round.
Meeting again four years from the last, Carolina is hoping it's in the final stages of making a serious Stanley Cup push after winning their third division title in a row. And the Islanders? They'll be looking to spoil the party, and perhaps get some revenge for the quick bow out in 2019.
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HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Hurricanes: 3-1-0
Islanders: 1-3-0
THE BREAKDOWN
The Canes are a Stanley Cup contender that has fallen short of expectations in the post-season for a few years in a row now, but they've had little trouble with the first round. Since 2020, Carolina has won its first playoff series each time with a combined record of 11-5 and got out to a quick start by winning the first two games in each of them. When the Canes are in control of things, they can look like the nightmare matchup they're supposed to be.
But there's the other side of the coin. When facing elimination since 2020 the Hurricanes are 1-3 with just six total goals scored. They've been searching for The Big Playoff Goal that gets them over the hump and slays a dragon the past few years.
That again will be the big question for Carolina: can they get the big goals needed in the most high-pressure moments? The fact Andrei Svechnikov is out for the playoffs with a knee injury, and off-season upgrade Max Pacioretty is also out after playing just five games this season, leaves Carolina without two of the key players they would have turned to in those moments. Sebastian Aho scored 36 goals this season and Martin Necas nabbed 28, but they are the only healthy 20-goal scorers on the roster.
But, usually, those issues start becoming a problem for the Hurricanes in Round 2, and this year's opening round matchup comes against an Islanders team with an even less efficient offence.
This series pits two of the bottom four playoff offences against one another, and if it does end up being a low-scoring matchup throughout then an advantage may swing to the Islanders and Ilya Sorokin. The 27-year-old was one of the top netminders this season, and posted a .922 save percentage in seven 2021 playoff games and going 4-1 in ones he started.
But this Canes team can play defence with the best of them, and push the play to create scoring chances with the best of them too. It's just a question of finish, really.
If their depth, structure and pace doesn't get them through the Islanders, it would be a massive disappointment for Carolina. This team's test should be about knocking out Boston, Tampa Bay or the New York Rangers, the teams they have fallen to since 2019.
But look past these Islanders and they may jump up and bite.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Hurricanes X-Factor: Jesperi Kotkaniemi
If you weren't familiar with the Canes had were asked to guess who their leading scorer was since Feb. 1, Kotkaniemi's name is probably not one that'd be on the tip of the tongue. But in 32 games, Kotkaniemi has 11 goals and 24 points (tied with Necas and Burns) and is coming in with seven points in eight April games. Doing that in the playoffs is different of course, but if Kotkeniemi is the guy who'll produce the big goal or the big moment for this team, he'll start shushing a lot of doubters.
Islanders X-Factor: Mat Barzal's return
The Isles got some great lineup news, as Mat Barzal is expected to return for Game 1 after missing the past two months with a lower-body injury. Before the injury, Barzal played seven games next to Bo Horvat and the former Canucks captain scored three goals. In the final 23 games without Barzal, Horvat scored just four times. With the way Brock Nelson has produced during his career year (36 goals, 75 points) and how he's meshed with Kyle Palmieri and trade pickup Pierre Engvall, if Barzal can help generate some more goals off Horvat's stick from another line, New York could have more bite than it seems.
BROADCAST SCHEDULE
(all times Eastern)
Monday, April 17: at Carolina, 7 p.m. (Sportsnet 360)
Wednesday, April 19: at Carolina, 7 p.m. (Sportsnet 360)
Friday, April 21: at New York, 7 p.m. (Sportsnet ONE)
Sunday, April 23: at New York, 1 p.m. (Sportsnet 360)
*Tuesday, April 25: at Carolina
*Friday, April 28: at New York
*Sunday, April 30: at Carolina
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