2023 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Okay, it’s finally time to do this.

Again.

After clashing in a nail-biter of a seven-game series last spring, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning have been locked into a re-match for what feels like the entire season. Very few of you likely require a reminder that Tampa edged Toronto in seven games 11 months ago, but there it is anyway.

While these two teams have been circling each other for a while, it’s been interesting to see how the conversation around the clubs has changed in recent months. In the winter, there might have been a sense the Leafs were unlucky to be facing Tampa again. But after an active trade deadline in Toronto and some unrest around the Bolts, there’s a growing number of people who believe the Buds — who nailed down home-ice advantage for the set down the stretch — might be well positioned to get the better of Tampa this time out.

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

Maple Leafs: 2-0-1

Lightning: 0-2-1

THE BREAKDOWN

These two teams’ recent playoff pasts could not be more different. Tampa Bay has been to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, having won the 2020 and ’21 titles before losing to the Colorado Avalanche last year.

Toronto, meanwhile, has made an annual habit of excruciating first-round exits. It’s now a half-dozen in a row for the Blue and White, who have yet to win a playoff series since Auston Matthews became the face of a franchise revitalization in 2016.

Bear in mind, though, that Tampa Bay was once that ultra-talented squad that couldn’t find a way to fully punch through. Before their Cup in 2020, a 132-point Lightning squad was swept in the first round by a Columbus Blue Jackets team that barely squeaked into the second season.

It won’t mean a thing unless they make good on it, but there are signs this Toronto outfit — for real, this time — could be different. Kyle Dubas, the GM in the final year of his contract, emptied the chamber before the deadline and loaded up on playoff-style players who can help Toronto win the little battles they lost in the past. Noel Acciari; Sam Lafferty; Luke Schenn; and, of course, Ryan O’Reilly.

Yes, if there’s one major difference between this Leafs team and the one that narrowly bowed out to Tampa last year, it’s the presence of the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. O’Reilly, back from a broken finger sustained early in his Leafs tenure, lends a whole different complexion to this team’s forward group and gives coach Sheldon Keefe wonderful options when it comes to loading up the top two lines or lengthening the lineup by running Matthews, John Tavares and O’Reilly down the middle.

Even before O’Reilly arrived, Toronto was playing a more responsible brand of hockey, pushing into the top 10 in terms of goals allowed per game.

Tampa, meanwhile, has basically been a .500 club since the all-star break and has just four wins in its past 12 games. In early March, coach Jon Cooper benched star players Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov for a period in Buffalo. Its big deadline acquisition, rugged Tanner Jeannot, will not be ready for the start of the post-season. Regardless of its past resume — and it’s a sparkling one — it’s just impossible to feel good about this Bolts team right now.

ADVANCED STATS

(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)

REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS

Maple Leafs X-factor: Goaltending and the potential for first-round ghosts

Forget the six straight playoff losses; the biggest case for the Leafs missing a certain something when it comes to the second season is the fact Toronto is 1-8 since 2017 when playing with a series advantage. Let that sink in for a minute. Last year, they were an overtime goal in Game 6 away from eliminating Tampa and couldn’t make it happen. In 2021, they were also an extra-time score away from knocking out the Montreal Canadiens in six games, but lost that sixth contest as part of a complete choke job that saw them squander a 3-1 series advantage.

We can talk all day about one year having nothing to do with the next and it’s true; but should things take a dark turn anywhere along the line for Toronto, it’s impossible to fully discount the here-we-go-again vibes.

Based on his work this season, Ilya Samsonov appears up to the task of leading this team out of the first round. But the 26-year-old Russian is largely untested in the playoffs — seven career starts for a, gulp, 1-6 record with the Washington Capitals — so it’s not like there’s a large body of work to hang your hat on. Samsonov has also been dinged up to close out the year, so the potential for injury is at least a slight concern. Usual batterymate Matt Murray is on the shelf, so Joseph Woll — who’s looked great in limited NHL action — could conceivably be in the mix.

Lightning X-factor: Andrei the Giant

Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been among the very best goalies in the league this year. But don’t think, for a minute, he doesn’t cast a shadow over this series. The 28-year-old Russian still holds status as the masked man you’d likely pick for your crease in a Game 7 with your life savings on the line. Vasilevskiy is 46-22 since Tampa began this run to three straight finals in 2020 with a .929 save percentage in that time. He wasn’t even really at his best last spring versus the Leafs — at least until Game 7 in Toronto, that is — and Tampa still found a way past its opponent. Lesser goalies than Vasilevskiy have lifted lesser teams than Tampa Bay to series wins on their own.

Also, for as much as the past few months have been a bumpy ride, you know there’s a ton of pride inside that Lighting room. There’s nothing you can throw at Tampa it hasn’t seen in the past three years and the Lightning’s championship guile is still part of the equation here.

BROADCAST SCHEDULE
(all times Eastern)

Tuesday, April 18: at Toronto, 7:30 p.m. (Sportsnet/CBC)
Thursday, April 20: at Toronto, 7 p.m. (Sportsnet/CBC)
Saturday, April 22: at Tampa Bay, 7 p.m. (Sportsnet/CBC)
Monday, April 24: at Tampa Bay, 7:30 p.m. (Sportsnet/CBC)
*Thursday, April 27: at Toronto
*Saturday, April 29: at Tampa Bay
*Monday, May 1: at Toronto