At different points this season, both of these teams were in control of and had a shot at the Central Division title but, in the end, neither could hold off the defending champions and so now Minnesota and the former North Stars will faceoff in a tough opening round series.
From Feb. 17 until the end of March the Wild went on a tear, winning 16 of 21 games and getting at least a point in 20 of them. At that point the Wild seemed to be shaping into a sneaky challenger that just might be peaking at the right time. Instead, they slowed in April, going 1-3-2 and finishing a few points off the pace.
The Stars' last two months went quite differently as they finished winners of their last six in a row — Dallas' last loss came on April 1 to Colorado, who passed them and then went 6-0-1 in their last seven. However, Dallas never lost three games in a row in regulation all season, and has been a tough beat from the start.
Much has changed about these Dallas Stars since their Stanley Cup Final appearance in the 2020 bubble. Their goalie is different, with young Jake Oettinger fully taking over in his first 50-plus start season. Jason Robertson has graduated from prospect to 109-point leading scorer in those three years and Roope Hintz has grown up as a player. Some of the veterans are there and, in Jamie Benn's case, bounced back to offensive contributions not seen in years.
Their style is the biggest difference from the finalist Stars to this new version. Where under Jim Montgomery and then Rick Bowness Dallas made its way on suffocating defence and low scoring, these Stars can beat you any which way, top 10 in goal scoring, goal preventing, power play success rate and penalty kill rate.
The Wild, dealing with a self-inflicted cap crunch due to two hefty buyouts, had to shed breakout scorer Kevin Fiala in the off-season and, as you might expect, that had an adverse effect on their ability to score. A top five offence a year ago, this year's Wild are the lowest-scoring team in the playoffs — and even through their hot streak mentioned above, Minnesota was still ranked 22nd in goals per game.
Here's how the two teams matchup.
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HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Stars: 2-0-2
Wild: 2-2-0
THE BREAKDOWN
In Peter DeBoer's first season coaching the New Jersey Devils, they reached the Stanley Cup Final. In his first season behind San Jose's bench, they too lost in the final. And in his first year with Vegas, the Golden Knights reached the third round (where they lost to the Stars). Now, in his first year with Dallas, he's completely changed how the team attacks, leaving the Stars more rounded than ever before.
Last season under Bowness, the wild card Stars nearly upset the Pacific Division champion Calgary Flames, largely because of how Oettinger stepped up in his first post-season experience and nearly swiped a series away. A year more experienced and polished, Oettinger and the tight Dallas defence should frustrate a low-event Minnesota attack.
But where the Wild lack in spread out, top-down scoring, they make up for in size, grit, stingy defence and stellar netminding. Though the Wild allowed more shots per game than Dallas — and finished 17th in the league by the stat — at 5-on-5 Minnesota allowed the second-fewest high-danger chances against this season (Carolina was first).
This helps set up the netminders for success, which we'd come to expect from Marc-Andre Fleury. But Filip Gustavsson, Ottawa's third-stringer just last season, figures to get some play here after his phenomenal season no one saw coming (22-9-7, .931 save percentage, 2.10 GAA). Sometimes this is the recipe for success come playoff time — if your defence and goalies can slow down the game enough to keep it close, you don't need a high-powered offence to get through.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Stars X-Factor: Jamie Benn
One of the main beneficiaries of Dallas' lean back into offence was Benn, whose 33 goals and 78 points this season was his highest output since 2018. It would be a shame for the team to waste this new-found power forward pop, because there was no guarantee it was ever coming back again, and Benn too needs to keep bringing it if this Stars team — very much in the running out of the West — actually hits on its potential. In the 2020 playoffs, Benn had eight goals and 18 points through the first three rounds, led Dallas in scoring and was fourth overall in the playoffs. Then the Lightning shut him down and the Stars fell in the final.
Wild X-Factor: Matt Boldy
The 21-year-old sophomore broke the 30-goal barrier for the first time this season, pushed there by a great run he had when star Kirill Kaprizov was taken out of the lineup for a month due to injury. In the 14 games Minnesota played without Kaprizov from March 8 to April 7, Boldy scored 13 goals — tied with David Pastrnak for the most in the league over that time. However, in the 17 games prior to that run, Boldy struggled to just a single goal. We know Kaprizov needs to show up for the Wild to have a chance, but Boldy's contributions absolutely cannot dry up like that again.
BROADCAST SCHEDULE
(all times Eastern)
Monday, April 17: at Dallas, 9:30 p.m. (Sportsnet 360)
Wednesday, April 19: at Dallas, 9:30 p.m. (Sportsnet 360)
Friday, April 21: at Minnesota, 9:30 p.m. (Sportsnet ONE)
Sunday, April 23: at Minnesota, 6:30 p.m. (Sportsnet East, Ontario, Pacific)
*Tuesday, April 25: at Dallas
*Friday, April 28: at Minnesota
*Sunday, April 30: at Dallas
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