2023 Western Conference Final Preview: Dallas-Vegas clash in a battle of titans

In the 2020 playoffs, the Vegas Golden Knights got back to the Western Conference Final and were attempting to spoil their fans with two Stanley Cup final appearances in three years of existence. But they met a defensively committed Dallas team and were dusted in five games.

So there's a little history here, but there are many more ways that both of these teams are different than they are similar, three years on.

For instance, Vegas hadn't signed Alex Pietrangelo or traded for Jack Eichel yet, and today both of those players are key leaders for the Golden Knights. And that Robin Lehner-Marc-Andre Fleury duo in net that brought plenty of crease controversy is now replaced by Adin Hill, Jonathan Quick and then maybe Logan Thompson, if he can get healthy again. Laurent Brossoit has been a big playoff factor too, but he's out with injury. And yet, there's not really a controversy this time.

Dallas has changed its style quite significantly since 2020. Back then, under coach Rick Bowness, the Stars had a staunch defensive attitude that absolutely shut down the middle of the ice and helped them to the second-best goals-against average in the league. Offence was a different story, though, and Dallas was the lowest-scoring of any of the playoff teams that season.

Today, under first-year head coach Peter DeBoer (who was, ahem, Vegas' bench boss in 2020), Dallas had the seventh-best regular season offence, saw resurgent seasons from Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, and just outlasted a Seattle Kraken team that really pushed the pace and was great at finding cracks in a defence. Although in 2020, Dallas really grinded out a playoff run and punched above its weight class, the 2023 version is a quickly rising favourite.

Here's how the two teams shape up in our Western Conference preview.

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

Dallas: 3-0-0

Vegas: 0-1-2

Stars X-Factor: Jason Robertson

The Stars have two players within our top three Conn Smythe candidates through two rounds (Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen) and the ageless Joe Pavelski comes in at No. 11. Seguin's five goals are third-best on the team, Benn has more primary assists than any other Star, and even mid-season trade pickups Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov have been key producers.

Robertson has managed to be impactful as well and is tied with Hintz for the team lead in assists (10), but with only two goals in 13 playoff games, Robertson isn't matching his 46-goal pace from the regular season. Still, he plays more minutes on the power play than any other Star, occupies a spot on the top line and has 37 shots on goal (second on the team). His playoff shooting percentage is just 5.4 and though we're dealing with small windows here, Robertson is the Dallas forward who hasn't unlocked his full potential yet this post-season. Doing so now against Vegas is a key to victory.

Golden Knights X-Factor: Jack Eichel

It took him eight years to get here, but the No. 2 overall pick in 2015 is absolutely meeting the moment and beginning to shape his legacy. In the second round, when Eichel was on the ice, Vegas outscored Edmonton 8-1 at five-on-five and he scored two of those goals and added another on the power play. In fact, Eichel had three multi-point efforts in the six-game series against Edmonton and kept pace offensively with his draft rival, Connor McDavid. Notably, he's been a presence all over the ice, physically, and hasn't been shy about blocking shots. In short, Eichel has been a factor in all three zones.

Averaging just under 20 minutes of ice time per game, most among Golden Knights forwards, Eichel now faces the toughest defensive matchup of his playoff career. Dallas was a top 10 regular season team in shots allowed per game and has been similarly stingy in the playoffs, backed by a goalie in Jake Oettinger who can absolutely bar the door. There will be more to fight through and overcome from here, but with another strong series Eichel could hit the Stanley Cup Final as the Conn Smythe favourite.

PLAYOFF TEAM STATS

ADVANCED STATS

Regular season five-on-five numbers via Natural Stat Trick

Stars unsung hero: Wyatt Johnston

When Johnston was chosen 23rd overall in 2021, it came after a season in which he did not play. Remember, there was no OHL season at the height of the pandemic, and while some of those prospects found temporary homes in Europe, Johnston has an entire missing year on his stats card (outside of seven international games played at the U18). In hindsight, the Stars might have snuck a steal in that slot. He's one of seven players from that class to have played over 80 games, and he just wrapped an underrated, 24-goal, 41-point rookie season.

In the playoffs, Johnston has yet to be slowed, and his 2-0 goal in Game 7 against Seattle proved to be the game-winner that put Dallas back in the West Final. And, in fact, he was credited with the series-winner against Minnesota as well. In a short time, the 20-year-old has become Dallas' second-option centre and has actually averaged more five-on-five minutes per game than any other Stars forward.

Golden Knights unsung hero: Adin Hill

Can a starting goalie be an unsung hero in the playoffs? Sure, if you're the third-stringer thrust into the top job midway through the second round. Playoff starter Brossoit was so good to start this post-season that we identified him as an X-Factor heading into the Oilers series, but a lower-body injury in Game 3 ended his run. In came Hill, a 27-year-old journeyman who played a career-high 27 games in Vegas' four-headed goalie room this season. After losing his first start 4-1, Hill stopped 70 of 75 shots across Games 5 and 6 and won both to eliminate the Oilers. Brossoit is not expected back and Hill is the projected start in the conference final for Game 1, with Quick as his backup. But Thompson's return also looms.

How Dallas wins this series:

With two evenly matched teams that should make for one heck of a series, we need to look for the edge. For Dallas, that's easy to find and it starts in net with Oettinger. At the other end of the ice, Vegas is digging deep into its depth chart at the position and it's remarkable how the Golden Knights have endured so many goalie bumps this season. Dallas, meanwhile, doesn't have that sort of crease confusion. Oettinger played 62 strong games in 2022-23, though his playoffs have been hot and cold. Although Oettinger has been great at times (.931 save percentage in games Dallas won), he's had a few he may want back (.872 save percentage in losses). Still, Oettinger is the only goalie left standing with a shutout in these playoffs and Dallas needs him to be the difference-maker.

How Vegas wins this series:

The penalty kill has to be better. Granted, the Golden Knights faced the historically good Oilers power play in Round 2, but even Winnipeg converted on over 41 per cent of its opportunities against Vegas in the opening round. The Golden Knights have found a way to overcome their weak 60 per cent kill rate, but it's eventually going to catch up to them if they don't improve it -- it's been 11 years since a team got to the Cup Final with a penalty kill below even 75 per cent, and no one has done it with a 60 per cent PK. Part of the recipe for success, then, might be to just stay out of the box entirely. Vegas has the most penalty minutes per game average and Dallas has been forced shorthanded more times than any other remaining team, so as the animosity and intensity turn up in this series, the Golden Knights have to find more discipline.