2024 Stanley Cup Series Preview: Panthers vs. Bruins

While the Tampa Bay Lightning made a strong late season push that made us wonder if another long playoff run was in the cards, and the Toronto Maple Leafs valiantly fought back from a 3-1 series deficit while showing they could play a "playoff style" game, in the end the Atlantic Division's top two teams got through and one will be on to the Eastern Conference final from here.

This is a rematch from last year's opening round, when Boston's all-time great season came to a crashing halt against a pesky Panthers team that went on to have a Cinderella run that recaptured some of the rat trick magic from 1996. This time it's the Panthers who are the favourites, though the Bruins were right there with them all season.

The Panthers won't catch anyone by surprise in this year's playoffs and, in fact, they may be one of the more popular picks to come out of the East. Their style of play definitely translates well into the playoffs — Florida is quick and, above all, physical, leading the NHL in hits as a team this season. But it's a fine line to walk, as Florida also had to play shorthanded more than any team besides Anaheim this season, which can devastate you in the playoffs. At least their PK was sixth-best in the regular season.

Boston can play a "playoff style" as well, of course, and had to grind out the last few games against Toronto to get here in the first place. There were 700 hits recorded in the Leafs-Bruins series, making it far and away the most physical opening round matchup by that stat. In the regular season, the Bruins were shorthanded 368 times, the fourth-most in the league, and recorded 2,259 hits, the third most in the league.

So not only is this a rematch for revenge and battle of rivals, but it will be fought between two teams that in the regular season had the most hits, and were shorthanded the most times, among all teams still standing.

Whew, it should be a doozy.

Head-to-head record regular season:

Panthers: 0-2-2
Bruins: 4-0-0

How Florida got here: Last year's run to the Cup Final left over some bumps and bruises on the Panthers roster that forced Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad — two top-four blueliners — to miss the first month-plus of the season. Given that the Panthers already only barely squeaked into last year's playoffs before going on their unexpected run, there was some question if injuries like those could mean a slow start and leave the Panthers chasing the season. Not so. By the time both returned on Nov. 17, Florida was 10-5-1 and looking like the playoff version of themselves.

While Aleksander Barkov figures to be a Selke finalist and the favourite to win the award, the team's skater representative at all-star weekend was Sam Reinhart, Barkov's linemate, who outscored his own career high by 24 goals to finish with an astounding 57 on the season. Matthew Tkachuk played the pest as good as ever and was better than a point-per-game player for the third year in a row, while clutch scorer Carter Verhaeghe scored over 30 for the second season in a row. The underrated Gustav Forsling, a waiver-claim pickup just a few years ago, averaged over 22 minutes a game and earned himself a long-term contract extension.

Most important of all, however, was that Sergei Bobrovsky had his best regular season in years and wound up a finalist for the Vezina Trophy.

Neck and neck with their Round 2 opponents for the Atlantic Division's regular-season title from October to April, the Panthers pulled ahead right at the very end to avoid Toronto and instead draw … in-state rivals and recent two-time Cup champs Tampa Bay, who historically have had the Panthers' number. But in that playoff opener, which played tighter than the result would make it seem, the Panthers ran out to a 3-0 series lead, including a crucial Game 2 victory where Verhaeghe once again delivered, scoring his fifth career OT winner and joining some illustrious company.

Florida scored 11 goals on Andrei Vasilevskiy in the last three games and, after being eliminated by the Lightning in the 2021 and 2022 playoffs, the Panthers returned the favour in 2024. In some ways, that victory took this rivalry into a new era. It also gave the Panthers a few days to rest up for this round.

How Boston got here: Last season it was the Bruins who started without a couple of key players in October, much like the Panthers did this season. Some thought being without Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy could leave the Bruins a step behind in 2022-23 and chasing, but instead they were red hot from the get go and ran away with the Presidents' Trophy in historical fashion with 65 wins and 135 points. They entered this season with lowered expectations once again, after the retirements of centres Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, who weren't replaced in free agency or trade.

No matter. The Boston culture, now led by new captain Brad Marchand, prevailed and the Bruins were once again in contention for the Atlantic Division title until the final week of the season.

This team is built around its two goalies, Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, who split duty down the middle as often as they could this regular season. But in Round 1 against Toronto, Swayman took the job in Game 3 and ran with it, leaving as the series MVP with a .950 save percentage and 1.60 GAA against the Leafs and making him one of the better, (very) early Conn Smythe candidates. But we'd expect Ullmark, who didn't lose the net with subpar play, will get another look at some point in Round 2.

This team is also built around its game breakers, and in Round 1 it was on full display how important those players are. Early on, Marchand set the tone with three goals (two game-winners) and eight points as the Bruins took a 3-1 series lead, but went offensively quiet from there. And then, just as Boston was setting itself up to blow a 3-1 series lead for the second year in a row, head coach Jim Montgomery challenged David Pastrnak to be better, and he answered with four shots on goal and the OT winner in Game 7.

These Bruins may not be as deep as they've been in the past, but they're very well coached, experienced and have great goaltending. Last year's first-round series between these two went seven games before Florida finished the upset, now it's Boston's turn to play the underdog.

PLAYOFF TEAM STATS

ADVANCED STATS

Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick

Panthers X-Factor: Anton Lundell

Sam Bennett left Game 2 against Tampa Bay with an "upper-body injury" after taking a Montour shot to the hand. At first it was announced he would be out for "at least a week" but Game 1 of this series will be 11 days after the incident and it's not clear what Bennett's status is other than head coach Paul Maurice saying it was a "very real possibility" that the centre would play in this series.

With or without Bennett, Anton Lundell will be an X-Factor in how he can either fill a key role in the top six, or help tip the scales in Florida's favour in the bottom six. Without Bennett, Lundell moved up to the second-line centre spot and, at 5-on-5, the Panthers generated twice as many high danger chances as they gave up with Lundell in that assignment. In Game 2, after Bennett left, Lundell recorded the primary assist on Verhaeghe's winner.

With Bennett, Lundell slides back into the third-line centre role, where he provides a considerable depth-chart advantage over Boston's bottom-six. The 22-year-old centre is already in his third playoffs and, after starting with four points in his first five games this post-season, his contributions and composure belie his age.

Bruins X-Factor: Justin Brazeau

Though one of the stronger teams in the East all season, the Bruins worked only on the edges of their roster at the trade deadline to prepare for the playoffs, bringing in Pat Maroon and Andrew Peeke. The more impactful additions were made from within. Mason Lohrei, for example, is a 6-foot-5 defenceman with loads of creativity and puck skill. In Round 1 against the Leafs, Lohrei had a breakout performance in his first post-season games with the Bruins.

Another standout in Round 1 was Justin Brazeau, a former Toronto prospect and a 6-foot-5 forward who made his first breakthrough to the NHL this season, at age 26. Brazeau didn't log his first game until February after the all-star break, but scored five goals and seven points in 19 games before getting injured in early April. That injury kept him out of the first four games against Toronto, but in the three games he did play Brazeau was noticeable. The Leafs did not get a 5-on-5 high-danger chance with Brazeau on the ice, his expected-goal mark was one of the better among Bruins players and he was Ilya Samsonov's goal stick knob away from scoring in Game 7. He also had more hits per minute than any Bruins forward in Round 1.

While Florida's depth is lauded, Boston's has been stretched this season, meaning someone in their bottom-six has to step in Round 2. Brazeau, though not the fastest skater on the team, can grind it out, play physical and create chances under the difficult conditions Florida presses teams to play in.