32 Thoughts: How Igor Shesterkin's next contract will change the market

Let’s start with some Igor Shesterkin.

As I see it, there are two ingredients in this logic problem. One: Shesterkin is the Rangers’ best and most-important player. Two: people can’t wrap their heads around what this could mean for his salary. 

I can’t confirm the specifics of Kevin Weekes’ massive report — Shesterkin turning down an eight-year, $88M offer. (Not saying he’s wrong, not at all, just that I can’t get confirmation of the numbers.) But I think he’s bang on that, if the Rangers offered this, it wouldn’t be accepted. 

Shesterkin is Manhattan’s backbone. The Rangers are built around him, his strengths the liquid paper to their weaknesses. They know it and they admit it. When Florida eliminated New York in the Eastern Final, Vincent Trocheck skated to Shesterkin and said something. 

“I was just letting him know that he had a fantastic series and he kept us in a lot of those games,” Trocheck said. “And if anybody was to feel good about themselves post-series, he should feel proud.”

New York’s highest-paid player is the sublime and superb Artemi Panarin. His cap hit is slightly above $11.64 million. I believe Shesterkin’s representatives (agent is Rick Komarow) have a simple argument: Igor is your best player, he should be compensated as such. In theory, no one disagrees. 

In practice, we’ve got a problem. And the problem is the position.

The highest-paid AAV ever for a goalie is Carey Price, at $10.5M. The Rangers have made it very clear: we will beat that. Shesterkin will set a new standard, launching netminding salaries into the stratosphere. 

Yet, at this point, we’ve got videos of Jeremy Swayman driving into Boston’s parking garage and Linus Ullmark standing in Steve Staios’ office. No Shesterkin videos of something uniquely New York, though. Like writing an angry headline about Aaron Judge in the playoffs. 

Why not? Part of this is the Rangers looking at new contracts for Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller. There’s only so much available. But most of it is about what goalies get paid.

The Rangers aren’t comfortable with where Shesterkin wants to go. I don’t know exactly what that is, but I have theories. 

Let’s start with Panarin. Let’s say Shesterkin wants $11.65M, slightly above the winger. That would beat Price by $1.15M. It’s a big jump. Look at the highest-paid skaters since Connor McDavid signed his current contract. Nathan MacKinnon passed it, by $100,000. Auston Matthews leapt over him by $625,000. Now, Leon Draisaitl hurdled that by $750,000 more. In this case, Shesterkin’s raise would dwarf all of those.

But, the more teams and agents you talk to, the more you hear “percentage of cap” being the critical indicator — especially as the salary ceiling is expected to rise. No agent or player wishes to sign something that looks relatively small if things go where predicted.

Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Matthews and McDavid all signed for between 15-16 per cent of the cap. (McDavid is highest, at 15.72.) Panarin is at 14.29. Without knowing for sure, I suspect this is closer to Shesterkin’s initial ask. That would be $12.58M. 

Again, I want to stress that I don’t know, it is purely a theory. But I think I’m in the ballpark with the above two scenarios. I can see where the Rangers would think differently if it was a forward. They aren’t comfortable doing this for a goalie, and they wouldn’t be the only ones. 

There are fewer and fewer A-list, stud netminders these days. That’s why we’ve seen their salaries suppressed — at least until this week — unless you have one of the elites.

And the Rangers do. 

I could be wrong — it's happened before — but that’s why, ultimately, I think they are going to bend some. Shesterkin is too important; they’d basically have to re-wire their roster if he leaves. 

Clip-and-save, we will see if I’m right.

THOUGHTS

1. All of that said, we might be seeing a change in how teams view goalies. Obviously, the attention goes to the biggest contracts. Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark raised the bar (getting the latter done is a huge win for Ottawa), but don’t miss what’s happening elsewhere.

On Nov. 23, 2022 — the date of his 12th NHL appearance (including playoffs) — Pyotr Kochetkov signed a four-year, $8M contract in Carolina. Twenty-six days later, Stuart Skinner was 33 games into his NHL existence when he signed for three years at a $2.6M AAV in Edmonton. In the last seven weeks, Yaroslav Askarov and Jesper Wallstedt (three games apiece) got $2M and $2.2M AAVs, respectively. They are talented young goalies; their teams are wise to bet on them. But those are big numbers and didn’t go unnoticed, especially among veteran backups who got hurdled. 

2. Joey Daccord followed up with five years, $25M from Seattle after 69 career games — 50 of them last season, a breakthrough year for him. My immediate reaction is what this means for Philipp Grubauer, who played the Kraken opener, a 3-2 loss to St. Louis. He’s got two years remaining at a $5.9M cap hit, although the actual cash payout is $1.8M lower. That raises buyout possibilities if the team wishes to go that route.

This is an important season for Seattle, with NBA expansion on the horizon. It’s not a coincidence their major free-agent acquisitions — Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson — both have winning pedigrees, big presence on the ice and, especially in Montour’s case, off it. The Kraken wish to establish a bolder, more boisterous, identity. Stephenson is there to do the heavy lifting, so Matt Beniers and Shane Wright can spread their offensive wings. Brandon Tanev is a pending unrestricted free agent, and there’s interest in him. That’s one to watch.

3. Wisely, Toronto is being super-careful with Joseph Woll. He’s more than good enough to be a number one, but their biggest risk was his health. I liked their moves on defence and overall plan, bringing in a very competent compadre in Anthony Stolarz. But it hinges on Woll. Bob Gainey had a line: “The problem with injury-prone players is that they tend to get injured.” That’s what he must avoid. We will see if Dennis Hildeby gets a shot, as the Maple Leafs open with three games in four days. Several observers said last season he was AHL Toronto’s best prospect. 

4. Sounds like Toronto is working to find a landing spot for Timothy Liljegren. He’s down the depth chart, not a situation anyone is happy with. 

5. Boone Jenner is soliciting second opinions, but, unfortunately, his stabilizing presence will be missed — his practice injury will keep him out a long time. Loyal to the Blue Jackets, he deserves better. No organization or fanbase deserves brighter days ahead than Columbus.

6. It doesn’t make sense to guess timelines for Thatcher Demko. One of the things everyone involved realizes is that whenever his recovery is pushed too far or too hard, it doesn’t work. The Lou Lamoriello rule: if you have time, use it. It’s the beginning of the season, they have time. Kevin Lankinen and Arturs Silovs are strong enough to stabilize things. If the Canucks can’t survive in the short-term with those two, they aren’t as good as I think they are. 

7. We’re days into the season, but writing these while watching post-season baseball has me craving playoffs. So, let’s do some guessing. First, Western Conference. Non-playoffs: Anaheim, Calgary, Chicago, San Jose. Bubble teams: six for two spots — Los Angeles, Minnesota, St. Louis, Seattle, Utah, Winnipeg. Suddenly the Hottest Person at School: Nashville. What do they have up their sleeve? Colorado, Vancouver, Vegas. Top of the field: Dallas, Edmonton. 

8. Eastern Conference, non-playoffs: Columbus. Bubble teams: eight for one spot: Buffalo, Detroit, Montreal, Islanders, Ottawa (I’m pot-committed to them), Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington. Playoffs for sure: Boston, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Toronto. Suddenly the Hottest Person at School: New Jersey. Top of the field: Florida, Rangers. 

9. Minnesota is on notice, and knows it. As owner Craig Leipold said about Kirill Kaprizov, “Nobody will offer more money than us, or longer. So all we have to do is prove to him that we want to win.” He can’t extend until July 1, when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s buyout penalty drops from $14.7M to $1.67M. A chunk of that would go to Kaprizov, but the Wild gain flexibility they don’t have now. Even better would be wins. Nothing solves problems more than wins. Well, maybe a Scotch (with one big ice cube) and a good cigar. But wins are great, too. 

10. There were times during the summer I thought Filip Gustavsson would be dealt, but he starts the season in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. 

11. Nino Niederreiter, on Winnipeg’s playoff loss to Colorado: “Weird. They were buzzing, everything was clicking, we didn’t have an answer. Nothing came naturally, nothing came easy, it was always a battle for something good to happen. We lost patience. (When) scored against, we had to get it back right away. We fell right into their game…tried to play the running game, and they’re a powerhouse.”

I wondered if there was any chance we might see an eve-of-season extension for Nik Ehlers, since they didn’t really engage with Mark Scheifele a year ago until days before he re-signed. This, however, might be an Ehlers decision as much as a Winnipeg one if he’s unhappy with his role. Team Canada dark horse: Adam Lowry. 

12. Big bit of business for Florida as Carter Verhaeghe, who broke through at age 25, signed for $56M while the Panthers raised their banner. They are expected to make a run at keeping Sam Bennett, too. He’s good for them, and Florida is good for him. He’s not a scorer like Verhaeghe, but centres generally get rewarded. In true Bennett fashion, Tuesday night we were talking about him for Team Canada and a smart hockey person texted, “Their management will be concerned he takes crazy penalties.” Just as I finished reading that, Bennett was penalized for bowling over Joonas Korpisalo on the Panthers’ 6-2 goal.

13. Other interesting UFAs where it seems pretty quiet: Brock Nelson and Shea Theodore. I’m a Nelson fan and he’s a big part of that Islanders team. Scoring defenders are always in demand, too. The Golden Knights find ways to do what they want to do.

14. Philadelphia has until the end of October to convince Aleksei Kolosov of its plan for him. That’s when he can consider returning to the KHL.

15. Anaheim made big swings in free agency, particularly disappointed they didn’t snag Jonathan Marchessault. Claiming James Reimer on waivers is another example of their desire for better results, as it would have been easy to simply wait out John Gibson’s appendicitis recovery.

One of the things the Ducks will push this season is making sure their young players gain more important minutes, real exposure to the moments that win or lose games. There is a lot of talented youth in this organization, and the wish is for them to take more control — particularly on defence. New captain Radko Gudas, asked if there was one young blueliner he liked, chickened out and named four of them (Jackson LaCombe, Tristan Luneau, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger). Then he laughed, “I see them skating up the ice and say, ‘I need that.’” 

16. GM Pat Verbeek has two situations to rectify: Gibson and Cam Fowler. The early-season absence is rough for Gibson; he needs to stay healthy and play. Fowler will have interest — it is believed St. Louis took a long look at him — but it might take time for those without cap space. He’s a good player who can help a good team. Last I checked, it was quiet on the Trevor Zegras front, so all focus is on starting strongly for him. (Montreal’s interest was heavily speculated all last season, but has cooled.)

Interesting hire was Rich Clune, on the bench. Verbeek is serious, as is head coach Greg Cronin — who was working on ways to ease up a bit while still preaching peak performance. Clune, who made a big impact off the ice in Toronto, will help encourage Anaheim’s youth.

17. Like the Ducks, Chicago also took some big swings this summer — making googly eyes at Jake Guentzel, who ultimately chose Tampa Bay. (Connor Bedard/Guentzel isn’t Tom Holland/Zendaya, but it sure would have been nice to look at.) They found different help for Bedard, and it's a deeper roster. People are really excited to see what he’s got in store for 2024-25 now older, wiser and stronger. (Apparently, his ‘Q Rating’ among young fans is absolutely astronomical.) Connor Ingram spoiled Chicago’s chances of ruining Utah’s debut with a stellar stretch early in the second period.

18. What other teams see about the Utahns: ownership will not hesitate to make a big splash. With their cap room, if the future Yetis are close, they’re going to be aggressive. Excellent opening night, completed with a “W.” Something to watch: Mikhail Sergachev on the Blackhawks’ first goal.

During the broadcast, Luke Gazdic pointed at Cedric Pare/Patrik Laine as a good reason Sergachev pulled back from contact with Connor Bedard, but we also wondered if the defenceman’s own terrible leg injury played a role, too — that he was being careful not to injure himself. 

19. We’re going to know about Los Angeles right away. Drew Doughty is expected to be out around three months; the Kings start seven straight on the road without their defensive security blanket. Getting home relatively unscathed will be a massive confidence boost. Brandt Clarke has the gifts and you can see the confidence. He wants the puck, and is excited to run the power play.

“Funnel pucks to the net and keep it moving,” he said. He also praised Adrian Kempe, saying the talented winger has “a wide area where you can put the puck and he can still shoot it.” Meanwhile, Quinton Byfield is ready to explode. He looked phenomenal in the pre-season and their depth chart looks ridiculous when Foegele-Byfield-Fiala is listed as the third line. The Kings hope he pushes Anze Kopitar for top-line minutes, and it is not an impossibility.

Los Angeles is very disciplined system-wise, but wasn’t considered overly physical or intimidating. That’s why they went after Tanner Jeannot, who is much better than he showed in Tampa Bay. Big season for a lot of their prospects, with Jordan Spence, Akil Thomas and Alex Turcotte all getting opportunities to show something.

20. Everyone knew, after St. Louis missed the playoffs, that Doug Armstrong was tired of losing. “It was disappointing for all of us,” Robert Thomas said. “We knew there’s no option to miss again. That was his mindset. And as players, we are ready to respond.” Thomas, by the way, said his goal is 100 points (career-high is 86) while being better defensively. Armstrong’s boldest move paid immediate dividends, as Dylan Holloway set up Philip Broberg for the tying goal during St. Louis’s opening-night 3-2 win in Seattle — also a victory for offer-sheet enthusiasts. 

21. Things are already better in San Jose with a lottery win; two top prospects (Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith) in the lineup. William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund made immediate texts to Celebrini once he became a Shark. “He has so much skill,” Zetterlund said. “Great fit in this organization. Perfect timing too.”

“He’s both a passer and a shooter,” Eklund added. (When I didn’t specifically ask about Smith, Zetterlund made a point of saying, “Will Smith is going to be good for us.”) It’s clear there was an “add-talent” mandate to convince Celebrini to make the NHL leap, which he did. Who is he looking forward to facing? “Nathan MacKinnon,” he answered, and in a complimentary, not cocky, way. “He's a dog out there.”

Celebrini’s been around the Golden State Warriors during their decade atop the NBA. What has he learned from them? “It's all the work you put in, your dedication to winning and doing all the little things that add up. All those lessons have stuck with me. Doing things right. The quality the first time around so you don't make any mistakes.” Anything specific from Steph Curry? “How dedicated he is. How much attention to detail he has in his training. How he'll be in the gym for six hours and just keep working no matter what.” 

22. One of the things that really stuck with me was hearing Zetterlund talk about handling all of last season’s misery. “It’s a long run,” he said. “Don’t focus too much on the losing. Look forward, wake up every morning with a smile and go to work. Don’t make excuses about anything. We talk about, ‘We are going to change things in San Jose.’ We want to be here when it’s better. Focus on being positive, work to get better. Driving (hard) every day. Be the best in practice. Hope it is contagious.”

“We know this is going to turn around eventually,” Eklund said. “Love to win and hate to lose.” One thing the Sharks showed in the pre-season: no one is going to bully their youth without pushback. It’s a long road back to what the Sharks were for almost 20 years, but losing 20-3 in back-to-back games will not be tolerated. Zetterlund, by the way, had a great line about what he’d change in the NHL:  “No practices, just games.” 

23. Nice story: Dylan McIlrath. Tenth overall selection in 2010 made an opening-night roster (Washington’s), the first time he’d done that since 2017. Now 32, he’s won three Calder Cups (2017 Grand Rapids, 2023 and ’24 Hershey). 

24. Awards. Hart: I could be boring and pick Connor McDavid — no one will be surprised if he wins again — but what’s fun about taking the easy route? Chris Pronger is the only defenceman to claim this trophy in the past 52 years, and Quinn Hughes is going to make a run at joining him. He’s a great talent with a desire to be even better, a captain in one of the league’s most intense markets. Hughes skated this summer with Roman Josi and learned something important from Nashville’s leader.

“He talks a lot about acceptance,” Hughes said. “Things happen the way they do, plays happen the way they do. Good things, bad things and accepting everything that comes towards you. That's a good gift. And I think I sometimes do a good job at it as well.” Quinn’s calm is a key for both his play and his dressing-room presence. Vancouver’s contention window is open, and he’s a massive part of it.

25. Calder: This might be the best race. Celebrini, Cutter Gauthier, Lane Hutson, Rutger McGroarty, Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven and Dustin Wolf all deserve confetti from the pre-season hype machine. A few people I talk to really like Stankoven because he’s played 43 games — 19 in the playoffs — getting a true taste of NHL life. Canadiens players rave about what Hutson does in practice, and Gauthier can score, always sexy to voters.

I don’t professionally wager, but if I did, I’d go Michkov. He’s a first-overall-level selection who fell because of uncertainty, and there was nothing during pre-season that indicated he’s going to have a hard time making a North American transition. Can’t remember who told me this, but, years ago, one coach said he doesn’t worry about language barriers or cultural barriers if someone “talks hockey.” Even if simply pointing or waving or physically demonstrating things, you can bridge language gaps in the short term. We’ve definitely seen that with Michkov, in games and in practice. Plus, he’s going to have a big role on a highly watched team. That doesn’t hurt.

26. Vezina: Last season was clear-cut Connor Hellebuyck, who received 31 of 32 first-place votes and ran away with it. If Ottawa makes the playoffs, there will be serious momentum for Linus Ullmark. He’d be tough to beat in that scenario. But my pre-season pick is Shesterkin, the 2022 winner. If he wants to be paid big, he has to play big.

27. Adams: Patrick Roy is at the top of the list of people I learn from. His passion, his knowledge, his hatred of losing, his eye for the game, his incredible self-confidence, how much he demands of himself. The way Roy left Colorado's bench kept him on the outside a long time. All that does is motivate him to prove everyone wrong, and make sure absolutely nothing is overlooked in efforts to push the Islanders into contention. Out of his first Long Island training camp, we’ve already seen a thunderbolt through the roster with Pierre Engvall put on waivers. On the podcast, I didn’t pick the Islanders to make the playoffs, which would damage any Coach of the Year candidacy. But predictions are for tarot-card readers, not hockey players.

There are coaches who are motivators, there are coaches who are good at Xs-and-Os. It is hard to be good at both. “He brought me in right away and went over one or two of my games,” Bo Horvat said last month. “Just him and I chatting. He's like, ‘If you do this certain thing and change that in your game, it's going to help you down the road.’ Trying to make small adjustments like that for me. He's always looking to push guys to get better. That's great for everybody on your team.” What did he tell you? “For a centreman, you always want to be under the puck and come up as a unit. Sometimes I might get too far ahead…maybe cheat a little bit on the offence. For me to make sure the puck's out of the zone first and supporting my wingers is going to be huge for me.”

It’s not revelatory, but Roy makes the Islanders believe. If you don’t believe, you’re doomed before you begin.

28. Panthers CEO Matt Caldwell said on the team’s TV broadcast Tuesday night that the organization’s original season-ticket holders would receive a replica Stanley Cup ring. I love when teams do that. Great touch. Staff got them, too, including part-timers.

29. Prayers for the great hockey fans and people of Florida, in the path of Hurricane Milton. Stay safe, listen to the right advice.