32 Thoughts: What's next for Leafs, Flames after front office changes

Early in my career, out of frustration, I quit a job. 

I regretted it the next day and, thankfully, things worked out. But I remember what my father said: “If you threaten to quit, you better be serious about it.”

Hard not to think of that in the aftermath of Toronto’s front-office Chernobyl. The moment Kyle Dubas so much as suggested he wasn’t all-in on returning, Brendan Shanahan’s feelings went from, “I think Kyle did an excellent job,” to “he might not want to be our GM. And I have to take that very seriously.”

In the 21st century, we talk a big game about mental health, family time, burnout and work-life balance. Those are important, and I’ll be the first to admit I could do a better job managing them. Buuuuuut, if you want to reach — and stay — at the top of your field, whether it be sports, business, politics, media, the arts, you name it: you MUST be all-in. It’s not for everyone, which is totally fine. We all decide what’s important to us. If you aren’t (or there’s even the suggestion you might not be), this is what happens. 

There are millions of dollars on the line; career paths decided for organizations, managers, coaches, staff and players. Shanahan is in the Hall of Fame because he was one of the NHL’s great combinations of skill and menace. You want to win? Leave your friendships in the dressing room with your street clothes. 

That mantra doesn’t retire when you go into management.

Shanahan has two years left on his contract. The craziness of the last three weeks indicates that, in Toronto, a 20-year breakthrough is, at best, a temporary high. His own future is at stake, and he’s not going to mortgage it on someone he doesn’t believe is all-in, whether or not that’s fair. 

As Hyman Roth said in Godfather II: “This is the business we’ve chosen.”

It’s important to remember Dubas hasn’t spoken, so we haven’t heard his side of this bitter divorce. Shanahan also mentioned the presentation of “a new financial package” from the GM’s agent, after the organization believed a five-year extension was on the two-yard line. 

All the Maple Leafs needed was Marshawn Lynch to punch it in. Instead, we got a Malcolm Butler interception.

I’m not allowed to discuss specific contract negotiations with Rogers, but I do know the telecoms don’t like last-minute surprises. When I left CBC for Sportsnet, one long-time employee warned me to put everything on the table right away. A late surprise would not be well-received, especially if Shanahan had already briefed the Board about what to expect.

I’ve reported that Dubas wanted to “streamline” the Maple Leafs’ decision-making structure. Somehow, that’s been interpreted as the MLSE Board “interfering” with management, which is Crazytown. MLSE teams want for nothing, providing whatever is needed to be successful. They are not micromanaged. If there is anything the Board has clamped-down upon, it is executive salaries — since Mike Babcock was paid $20M (or so) not to coach. That was at the heart of Masai Ujiri’s unnecessarily difficult contract discussions, and a major reason Dubas went into last season without an extension. 

There’s nothing to whine about. 

In the absence of a specific Dubas rebuttal, (he released a statement on Tuesday indicating “I will not get into the specifics of what I consider to be reasonable and consistent but private discussions”), we can only theorize about the full picture. Shanahan pointed at money, which Dubas loyalists have angrily denied. 

I have a theory. 

I don’t believe Dubas wants Shanahan’s job, exactly. I don’t think he wants to “manage up,” as we say in the corporate world. That takes a special kind of patience not everyone can muster. He was happy to leave that to Shanahan.

But I do think he wanted to be seen as equal when it came to the hockey department. If you’re familiar with a corporate environment, there are four ways to be seen as equal to (or more equal than) others: production, title, salary or a seat at the table. 

Shanahan re-iterated last week that it was his decision last summer not to extend Dubas. I’ve reported multiple times there was not enough ownership approval to do it, anyway. Whatever the case, Dubas’s production in 2022-23 convinced all parties he’d earned a new deal. 

Title is irrelevant. Dubas wasn’t getting that, which he understood. Money? Well, we have an argument, although he was definitely receiving a raise. There are some who believe he wanted to get as close to Shanahan as possible so the board members would be forced to see them as equal. But, again, that’s in dispute and even Shanahan said, “I wouldn’t characterize it as breaking down over money. At that point, if I'm being honest, I had gotten to a different place about how I felt about the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs and what was best.”

What I do think he pushed for — hard — was a seat at the table. Initially, I assumed that meant leapfrogging over Shanahan’s decision-making power, but several sources on both sides denied the language was that strong. At the very least, Dubas didn’t want the process to go: him to Shanahan to the Board…Board decides, goes back to Shanahan, then to Dubas. That says, to me, he wanted a seat at the table. He could deliver the message his way, in his own words. 

It wasn’t about Board interference, it was about facetime and expediting the process. Toronto has massive decisions to make, and, in the high-pressure environment of the draft/July 1, he didn’t want a cumbersome chain-of-command. But this power would have lasted well past the summer, for the length of Dubas’s extension.

That wasn’t going to fly. 

So, we are where we are. Deep down, I’m not convinced everyone believes this was the best outcome. Divorce doesn’t usually happen this fast, but this is the danger of waiting until the last minute. Something breaks, you don’t have enough time to fix it.

THOUGHTS

1. Dubas is at the top of Pittsburgh’s managerial wish list, assuming he and family are ready to make the move. There have already been discussions. The Penguins are prepared to give him a bit of time to consider. When it comes to Ottawa, it will be interesting to see if the winning bidder has already committed to any particular hockey operations leader, including the people already in place. There are suspected links for all four prospective owners, but nothing is done until it’s done.

2. Brad Treliving is expected to be in Toronto this week to meet with the Maple Leafs. Obviously, he won’t be the only interviewee. There’s a ton of interest in this job, but as the organization began to consider alternatives to Dubas, Treliving was very high on the list. 

3. Apparently, Scott Mellanby went very far down the road with the Philadelphia job that went to Keith Jones. So that makes me wonder about him for Toronto, too.

4. When it comes to Auston Matthews, it’s waaaaaaaaaay too simple to suggest that Dubas’s departure means he’s leaving Toronto. I’ve stated my prediction several times: he will sign an extension that takes him to around age 30 or 31, leaving him one more big contract before he retires. What I think this does is shift the timeline.

One Maple Leaf indicated last week he didn’t think Matthews would sign by July 1 even if Dubas stayed, but it’s very hard to see it now under a new manager. Wednesday is 37 days from the first day he can sign an extension, and there’s so much to learn between now and then, starting with who the new manager will be and what is their plan. Therefore, Toronto will have to discuss its comfort level with allowing Matthews’ no-trade to kick-in heading into the final year of his contract.

Under the Shanahan/Dubas regime, those conversations definitely took place. There seemed to be a comfort level they could keep Matthews long-term. We will see if the new regime feels any different, especially if it is Treliving — who lived through this last season. 

5. With that in mind, it was interesting to hear new Calgary GM Craig Conroy say, “I don't think I would let that happen again,” regarding Johnny Gaudreau’s free agent departure from southern Alberta. The Flames have seven important UFAs-to-be, starting with Elias Lindholm. Bo Horvat (represented by the same agency) just signed for eight years at an $8.5M AAV, would that be the ballpark?

Conroy also made it very clear the Flames will have a captain in 2023-24. In the exit meetings, players made it very clear they felt not having a captain affected their dressing room because there wasn’t one specific person responsible for being a liaison to the coaching staff. Mikael Backlund wants that role and teammates think he’d be an excellent choice. That could play a big part of his extension conversations.

6. There was a ton of internal happiness that Conroy won the race to be named Flames GM. You only need to speak to him for five minutes to understand why he’s so liked. Years ago, Marc Bergevin said he didn’t mind people thinking of him only as a practical joker because it meant they were underestimating him. I always remembered that. It’s important to remember not to confuse kindness with weakness, and Conroy will show he’s got that side to him.

Sportsnet radio mainstay George Rusic asked incoming Senior Vice-President Dave Nonis about being a GM in Canada (which Nonis has done twice) and, from what I understand, that was something the Flames asked all candidates: why has it been 30 years since a Canadian team has won? There were plenty of obvious answers like pressure, taxes and weather — and how you have to work to eliminate or reverse those obstacles.

7. We can all use a feel-good story, and Chris Snow’s extension absolutely qualifies. 

8. Calgary must decide on Mitch Love. When you’ve won the AHL Coach of the Year Award two seasons in a row, an organization is pretty much put on the spot to indicate if it considers you NHL material or not. Same goes for Ryan Huska and Kirk Muller. (Muller, I believe has been interviewed in Columbus and one other team.)

Other names to consider here: Andrew Brunette’s history with Jonathan Huberdeau is intriguing; Gerard Gallant, Travis Green (who I could also see with Anaheim), Marc Savard (as mentioned by Jeff Marek) and Alex Tanguay. Conroy and Jarome Iginla —who eventually will join the organization — think very highly of Tanguay. The Flames want to modernize the way they attack.

9. I also think the Flames will, at least, reach out to Peter Laviolette to gauge his interest. 

10. The fact there’s a $1B bid for the Senators and we, as of Tuesday night, don’t know who will get first crack at closing the deal indicates the Melnyk family, the bank and the NHL have questions that need answering. Ownership structure, financing, debt, etc. We’re getting there. A couple people who know Steve Apostolopoulos say it is absolutely his style to make a “bully bid,” so they wouldn’t be shocked at all if he’s the high bidder. We’ll see. If he wins, Justin Bourne might need a new co-host. 

11. Looks like Corey Perry will be hitting the market. After all these years, do the Maple Leafs finally make it work? Think of the content. 

12. I don’t get the sense any coaching announcements are close, which is a dangerous thing to write at this time of year. Spencer Carbery is interviewing with three or four teams. A couple of teams have asked for permission to speak to Seattle assistant Jay Leach. Brad Shaw’s mystery team was Washington. And, the longer Nashville goes without saying anything, the more you have to believe GM Barry Trotz is, at the very least, considering options. It’s tough to tell with Mike Babcock. I'd heard he was out of both Columbus and the Rangers, but there are still reports he’s in. 

13. Clayton Keller gave Arizona a month or so to provide him with direction about the future, on and off the ice. On is much easier: the Coyotes were more competitive than expected and are loaded with draft picks. There is no desire to move backward. Another team’s manager says GM Bill Armstrong has a line: “They can’t stop us from drafting.”

Off…well, who knows? It’s all guesswork and God knows if there’s any way to figure it out in 45 days. To this point, Keller is not asking for a trade. But, stay tuned. If he’s available, there will be a first-day Guardians of the Galaxy 3 style lineup. Think they are also being asked about Lawson Crouse. 

14. Lots of names in the Pittsburgh search got out. Here are two more: Dallas Stars Assistant GM Scott White and Boston Bruins Assistant GM Evan Gold. 

15. Apparently, NHL Coaches' Association Executive Director Michael Hirshfeld was interviewed twice for the Philadelphia job that went to Keith Jones. 

16. Toronto took Matthew Knies with the 57th pick of the 2021 NHL draft. If Toronto didn’t select him, he was going to Pittsburgh at 58. 

17. The NHL and NHLPA meet Wednesday in New York City. Main thing to keep an eye on: cap conversations. Everyone’s expecting it to go up $1M, but people who are smarter at math than I am believe there is a way to get it up closer to $1.5M or $2M without asking the players to budge on their escrow caps. That’s a non-starter. Any flexibility is good news.

18. Congratulations to one of my former producers, Jennifer Barr, who put together Inside Hockey at CBC for a couple of seasons. Her nephew, James Barr, was taken in the second round of the OHL draft by the Sarnia Sting. If he’s got Jennifer’s attitude, he’s going to be a heckuva player.