32 Thoughts: Where remaining RFAs stand as training camps near

Prospect tournaments underway…rookies being hyped beyond belief…fans ripping their rivals’ top young players all over social media…I’m invested in a whole bunch of players I’ve barely seen…we are so back. 

It’s a great time of year. 

While rookie tournaments are the focus — for good reason — one of last week’s biggest hockey stories was delivered via an “X” post from Braxton Whitehead. The 20-year-old American-born forward with the Regina Pats announced his “verbal commitment” to play at Arizona State after finishing his WHL eligibility in 2024-25.

Under current rules, Whitehead would not be allowed to do this. CHL players are ineligible under NCAA rules because they compete alongside players who have signed professional contracts. That’s a no-no.

Even appearing for one second in a CHL exhibition game is enough to eliminate you from any NCAA option. That’s what happened to 19-year-old defenceman Rylan Masterson, who played the last three seasons with the Greater Ontario Junior Hockey League’s Fort Erie Meteors. Even though he’s never played an OHL game, he did dress for exhibition play. 

Last month, Masterson filed suit to eliminate this barrier — pointing out that Europeans who have played in similar situations were not blocked from the NCAA.  

While we don’t know how that case will turn out, we do know the NCAA is losing court battle after court battle across several sports. There are only so many punches you can take; only so many lawyers you are willing to pay. The entire landscape is changing, with athletes able to earn money on their name, image and likeness like never before. 

The NHL told its GMs to prepare for a new world at last March’s meetings. NCAA hockey coaches stubbornly believed they could resist this tidal wave, but, at last spring’s convention, reality set in. 

What we don’t know yet is the scope of this change for hockey in particular. A few years ago, there was a bold, new developmental system proposed where CHLers could play in the NCAA, USHL teams could compete for the Memorial Cup, the draft would go back to 19 years old (except in the first round). One source reminded me recently that it was considered “too early” for this idea, and, depending on how everyone feels (including the NHLPA), maybe something along these lines becomes part of CBA negotiations. 

One of the major reasons several NCAA coaches were against a rule change is they think they are winning the fight against the CHL, and they don’t need its players. Maybe that’s true, but I believe there’s another angle at play here. I think the NHL would love to see more men’s and women’s NCAA programs — especially in non-traditional areas where hockey has made critical inroads the last two decades. (For example, Tennessee State is scheduled to debut in 2025-26.)

More good players, more good programs. A change in NCAA eligibility means a lot of young people looking for somewhere to go to school and play. 

THOUGHTS

1. Philadelphia is still trying to figure out where things will go with Alexei Kolosov, who did not arrive to camp and remains in Russia. Teams who have inquired were told a second-round pick is the price, but, before anyone is willing to do so, they would have to figure out if Kolosov would join them.

2. The Detroit Free Press reported the Red Wings want to keep Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider below Dylan Larkin’s $8.7M. I see the rationale from their perspective: Larkin signed his contract right before becoming an unrestricted free agent, while the current duo are still restricted. I don’t believe that will be a problem in Raymond’s case, as his comparables (ranging from Seth Jarvis to Tim Stutzle) are lower than Larkin.

I had heard of some progress with Raymond, but nothing is done until it's done. (Update: Raymond and the Red Wings agreed to terms on an eight-year deal with an $8.075M AAV Monday night).

If Seider and the Wings opt for maximum term, the defender would argue to eclipse the Red Wings’ captain. Yzerman has made it clear he is not crazy about term. I don’t know how he feels about this specific case, but some teams are trying to lock up core players before the cap is expected to jump in 2026-27 — just as some agents are wary of signing long-term deals that look tiny if the anticipated rises occur.

Seider has been skating with Dallas Eakins' Adler Mannheim club and Raymond has joined them from time to time.

3. On that topic, NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly said the league and the players have not discussed the idea of “smoothing” any potential bump at that time. The CBA indicates the cap should be around $92M next season, the final one of the current deal. Comparing the NHL to the NBA is not apples to apples, but here’s an illustration of what it means: In 2016, the NBA suggested spreading out a major leap, but were rejected by the union. The upper limit rose by $32M. However, in their new CBA, both agreed to increases no higher than 10 per cent season-to-season. If you’re wondering why NHL players might even consider agreeing to that, it's to make sure more than one free-agent class benefits. We will see what the membership says. 

4. One executive called the Winnipeg/Cole Perfetti negotiation the “politest in recent memory.” Perfetti went to the NHL/NHLPA media tour — I can’t remember an unsigned player doing that before — and represented the team this weekend at a charity fishing event. Perfetti re-iterated he is not unhappy with the Jets and wants to stay. I don’t think term is the problem here. A few sources (both team-side and agent-side) said Shane Pinto’s Ottawa extension is a challenge for Winnipeg, as the two have similar career numbers.

5. Otherwise, not a ton from the weekend on the RFAs. Quiet around Jeremy Swayman as everyone tries to bridge the philosophical differences. I stick to my prediction Dawson Mercer builds a bridge deal. The most stress-free negotiation so far is Thomas Harley’s, but we’ll see what happens this week.   

6. One thing that’s definitely happened with Swayman: it has reminded teams why you should move mountains before taking cornerstone players to arbitration. Every few years there’s a case — Tommy Salo, P.K. Subban, Shea Weber — leaving lasting bitterness on someone’s part. (I always admired Brendan Morrison for not losing his mind when the NHL’s lawyer called him the mouse to Todd Bertuzzi’s elephant.) The best news for the Bruins is their No. 1 goalie still wants to sign long-term.

7. Watching Montreal pack its building for two rookie games against hated Toronto makes me think of only one thing: that market needs an outdoor game in the worst way. I recently watched a video of a lightbulb that uses facial recognition to change lighting to match a person’s mood. Surely, if we can do that, we can find a way to get an outdoor game in Montreal. The weekend highlights looked fantastic.

8. One Canadien heard me waxing poetic about Matvei Michkov and warned not to ignore Lane Hutson. Montreal’s players are true believers of the rookie defender. 

9. Dylan Ferguson’s PTO in Vancouver ensures the Canucks have enough goalies for the pre-season. There’s still a dance with Kevin Lankinen, but the two sides are not in agreement on compensation. 

10. Seth Jarvis’s deferred contract raised a lot of interesting questions about where things could go. Most agents said they would recommend not following this path, as money now is worth more than money later. One player who lives in a high-tax state said he explored it until after he retired for tax reasons, but was advised not to do so.

What’s clear is that Jarvis’s representative (Gerry Johannson) and the NHLPA made sure his deferred money was protected, while the team worked with the league to make sure no CBA rules were broken. Daly mentioned one example: contract variability. There are rules limiting how much each season’s salary in a contract can change. Vegas pitched Jonathan Marchessault on deferred payments, which renewed discussion of this possibility around the league. The tweak Carolina made was to move the deferred money immediately to the end of Jarvis’s upcoming eight-year term. Marchessault would not have collected for a much longer period of time. 

11. Sidney Crosby’s extension, as he said, was on the front-burner. He laughed when we asked if there would be an “87” in it. He signed the deal Monday, two years with an AAV of...$8.7 million.

He changed one previous stance, that he wouldn’t play at 40 (this extension ends when he's 39). There’s still no guarantee, but after a 94-point season that still cemented him as one of the NHL’s best, he acknowledged the possibility. 

“I would say I'm probably a little more open than I was before to get to that point if I feel good…You’re basically trying to predict where you're going to be in a few years. I'd love to sign an eight-year deal, don't get me wrong, but with my age and not knowing how long I'm going to play for, we'll see. We'll see what that term is. But it wouldn't be something on the longer side.”

Crosby also pooh-poohed my suggestion that he was concerned about the Penguins not being a Stanley Cup contender.

“I really enjoy the expectation to win. I think that's something that pushes all of us. For the guys who have been there for a number of years (Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang), that's something that we're proud of. We want to go into a season with that expectation, regardless of what moves are made, what the team looks like….There's going to be different moves, going to be turnover and that's okay. But we're coming into the season to try to win, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that and hopefully that gets the best out of us.”

He did admit he watched more playoff hockey than usual — “you just want to see what separates the teams that make it and those that don’t.” He was very impressed with the quality of play. 

12. Crosby has hit batting-practice home runs at beautiful PNC Park. Could he do it against Paul Skenes? “I would love to make contact with one,” he said. He has not yet met the electric Pirates pitcher, but is watching with the rest of us. Would he want the opportunity to dig in for fun? “I'd love to. Yeah, I'd love to. It'd be scary, I think. But I'd love to make contact.” This has to happen. (Crosby saying he hasn’t met Skenes eliminated my follow-up — if he’s met Livvy Dunne.)

13. Connor Bedard said he tried a 75-flex stick this summer, but won’t go there yet. He’s currently in the low 70s and is more comfortable there. “It's pretty wacky, but it feels comfortable to me,” and admits eventually “I do think it would be beneficial, maybe, to go up a bit.” Bedard said he wants to see the Blackhawks take a step. “It's hard losing that many games…We want to be playing important games by the end of the year and be in the fight.”

14. Some fun miscellaneous stuff from the North American leg of the NHL/NHLPA media tour: Roope Hintz’s Dallas teammates saw his short, blonde haircut when he returned to North America, and immediately started calling him “The Real Slim Shady.”

Vincent Trocheck’s son had a t-shirt made with the photo of his father’s double-overtime second-round Game 2 winner over Carolina. “The only reason my head is popping up is because I'm so claustrophobic that I had to find some air. But it is a cool picture,” Trocheck laughed.

15. The CHL and U.S. U18 team are looking at a pair of games, Nov. 26 in London, Ont., and the next night in Oshawa, Ont.

16. Only 16 this week, as the boss and I are celebrating our 15th anniversary. If you’ve never been to Red Rocks, make a point to go. It’s worth it.